【作者】 张家胜；

【导师】 祁春节；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农产品贸易与农村金融管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自2005年7月21日起,人民币由原来单纯盯住美元改由参考一篮子货币定价后,无论是人民币名义有效汇率和人民币实质有效汇率,还是人民币对美元的汇率都呈现明显的升值趋势。中国贸易顺差存在的长期性决定了人民币升值是一个长期趋势。通过商品进出口、资本输出入等渠道,人民币升值必然会对中国社会经济各个方面产生深远的影响。人民币升值也会对中国农产品进出口产生影响。目前,中国仍处于二元经济转型期,“三农”问题仍有待解决。因此,研究人民币升值对中国农业及农村的影响就显得尤为重要。本项研究试图就人民币升值对中国农产品进口的影响进行系统深入的分析,并解释其政策含义。整个论文运用农业经济学、国际经济学与计量经济学的相关原理,构建了一个人民币升值的农产品进口效应的分析框架,就人民币升值对农产品进口的影响进行专门、系统的研究,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合、定量分析与定性分析相结合、总体研究与个案分析相结合等多种方法,以2005年7月至2008年6月间的月度数据作为样本区间,从农产品进口的总体规模、不同地区的农产品进口、进口结构、进口主体、进口方式、进口来源地、国内农产品价格等方面,就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平等因素对中国农产品进口各个方面的影响进行了深入系统地分析。全文分为八章。第1章为导论,作为整个论文的鸟瞰,首先对论文研究的背景进行了说明,在此基础上对本项目研究的科学问题和研究意义作了较详细的阐述。随后在界定了本项研究所用的几个关键概念后,就相关文献进行了梳理,最后是研究的基本思路、研究方法、技术路线以及本项研究可能的创新和不足之处。第2章是分析的逻辑起点,从中国贸易顺差存在根源的角度来阐述人民币升值的原因。研究表明,国内有效需求不足和投资扩张并存、公共品的供给不足和贸易品供给过剩并存是中国贸易顺差存在的直接原因,“人口红利”、二元经济转换过程中的工业化和城市化、转轨过程中地方政府行为的扭曲、制度供给不足等是中国贸易顺差存在的根源。中国贸易顺差存在的长期性必然导致人民币呈现升值的趋势。第3章是本项研究的理论基础。分析了中国居民消费水平(经济增长)、人民币汇率、国内外农产品价格水平等因素对中国农产品进口的影响,并提出了一些有待检验的推论。第4章至第7章是实证分析部分,以2005年7月至2008年6月间的月度数据为样本区间,对第3章提出的推论进行检验。第4章是关于人民币升值对中国农产品进口的规模和结构影响的分析。本章分为三个部分。一是利用时间序列模型就人民币升值、中国居民消费水平和国内外物价水平对中国农产品进口总规模的影响进行实证分析。研究发现,人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高都在一定程度上促进了中国农产品进口的增长,而且中国国内物价水平的上涨对中国农产品进口增长的影响最显著,但是无法验证国际农产品价格的上涨对中国农产品进口增长的影响。二是利用面板数据模型就人民币升值和中国不同地区经济增长(人均工业增加值)差异对中国东部地区、中部地区和西部地区人均农产品进口的影响差异进行了实证分析。结果表明,人民币升值和人均经济增长都促进了各地区人均农产品进口的增长,而且二者都对西部地区人均农产品进口的影响最显著。三是利用面板数据模型就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对农产品进口结构的影响进行了实证分析。分析表明,人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高有助于中国动物类农产品和植物类农产品进口的增长,而且二者对植物类农产品进口增长的影响更显著些。第5章是关于人民币升值对中国农产品进口主体、进口贸易方式与进口来源地影响的分析。本章分为三个部分。一是利用面板数据模型就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对中国农产品进口主体的影响进行了实证分析。研究表明,人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高有助于中国国有农产品进口企业和外商投资的农产品进口企业进口农产品的增长,而且二者对外商投资的农产品进口企业的影响更显著些。二是就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对中国进口贸易方式的影响进行了实证分析。结果发现,人民币升值有助于中国一般贸易方式和加工贸易方式下农产品进口的增长,而且人民币升值对加工贸易方式下农产品进口增长的影响更显著些。中国居民消费水平的提高有助于一般贸易方式下农产品进口的增长,但不利于中国加工贸易方式下农产品进口的增长。三是就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对中国农产品进口来源地进行了实证分析。分析表明,除了大洋洲外,人民币升值促进了中国从亚洲、非洲、欧洲、南美洲和北美洲进口了更多的农产品,而且人民币升值对中国从北美洲和南美洲进口农产品的影响最显著。除了非洲和南美洲外,中国居民消费水平的提高刺激了中国从亚洲、欧洲、北美洲和大洋洲进口了更多的农产品,而且中国居民消费水平的提高对中国从北美洲进口农产品的影响最显著。第6章以中国大豆进口和从美国进口农产品为例,就人民币升值对中国大豆进口、中国从美国进口大豆以及中国从美国进口农产品的影响分别进行了实证分析。本章分为三部分。一是以中国大豆进口为例,运用主成分回归分析就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对中国大豆进口的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对中国大豆进口的增长存在正面的影响。二是以中国从美国进口大豆为例,利用向量自回归(VAR)技术中的脉冲响应分析就人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高对中国从美国进口大豆的影响进行了实证分析。研究表明,人民币升值和中国居民消费水平的提高都会刺激中国从美国进口更多的大豆。三是以中国从美国进口农产品为例,运用时间序列模型就人民币升值、中国居民消费水平和国内外物价水平对中国从美国进口农产品的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国居民消费水平的提高和中国国内物价水平的上涨刺激了中国从美国进口更多的农产品,而且中国国内物价水平的上涨对中国从美国进口农产品的影响更为显著。但是,无法验证人民币升值和国际市场价格的上涨对中国从美国进口农产品的影响。第7章运用时间序列模型就人民币升值对中国国内农产品价格的影响进行了实证分析。实证表明,人民币升值推动了中国国内农产品价格的上涨,而且影响非常显著。第8章在对本项研究作总结性述评的基础上,揭示政策含义并提出对策建议。本项研究主要的创新之处:1.在人民币升值对农产品贸易的影响方面,目前的研究大多侧重于出口贸易而不是进口贸易,且主要侧重于宏观分析和定性研究。本文构建了一个人民币升值的农产品进口效应的分析框架,定量分析了人民币升值对中国农产品进口规模、进口结构、进口主体、进口方式、进口来源地、国内农产品价格等方面的影响,具有系统性和前瞻性。2.在影响农产品进口因素的实证研究方面,当前建立的模型大多是关于国民收入与进口需求之间关系的分析。本项研究通过对国民收入的分解,建立了汇率、居民消费等因素与农产品进口之间的相关模型,在汇率变动的情况下,就中国居民消费水平的提高对中国农产品进口的影响作了定量研究,得出了一些对相关决策有指导意义的结论。3.在汇率变动对农产品进口结构、进口主体、进口方式和进口来源地等影响的问题上,当前的研究大多停留在一般统计对比分析上,进行计量经济分析的还比较少见。本项研究在同时考虑变截距和变斜率两种模型的基础上,就人民币升值对农产品进口结构、进口主体、进口方式和进口来源地的影响差异构建面板数据模型分别进行实证研究,提出了新观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 On July 21, 2005, China broke the renminbi’s peg to the dollar and replaced it with a link to a basket of currencies. Since then, the nominal effective exchange rate, the real effective exchange rate and the exchange rate of the Yuan against Dollar have all assumed to be increasing obviously. The persistence of Chinese trade surplus determines the consistent increase of RMB appreciation. RMB appreciation will inevitablely have profound effects on all aspects of Chinese economy through various channels, such as import-export of commodities and input-output of capital. Chinese agricultural exports and imports are no exception to be affected. At present, China is undertaking the dual economic transition, problems related to agriculture, rural area and farmer remain to be resolved. In this context, study on impacts of RMB appreciation on Chinese agriculture and rural area is particularly important. This study attempts to perform systematic and profound analysis on impacts of RMB appreciation on Chinese exports and imports of agricultural products, thereby state their political explanation.The paper applies Agricultural Economics, International Economics and Econometrics to build an analytical framework about the import effect of agricultural products resulting from RMB appreciation so as to systematically analyze the influence of RMB appreciation on agricultural imports. Taking monthly data from July 2005 to June 2008 as sample and seeing from aspects of the scale of agricultural imports, agricultural imports in different regions, import structure, import operator, import pattern, import source and domestic price, the paper uses the means of integration of positive and normative studies, integration of quantitative and qualitative analysis and integration of general study and case analysis to systematically analyze the influence of RMB appreciation and consumption level of Chinese residents on Chinese agricultural imports. The paper is divided into eight chapters.Chapter I is the introduction and outline of the paper, which states the research background, the scientific problems to be solved and their significance at first. Then, it defines some important concept and reviews related literature. The basic thinking, research method, technical route and the possible innovation and shortcomings are revealed at last.Chapter II is the logic base of analysis which expounds the cause of RMB appreciation from the aspect of the origin of China’s trade surplus. Study shows that the coexistence of insufficiency of effective domestic demand and expansion of investment, and the conflict between supply deficiency of public goods and supply surplus of commodities are direct causes of Chinese trade surplus. In addition, the so-called demographic dividend, industrialization and urbanization in the process of dual economic transaction, distortion of local government behavior during transitional period and the inadequate supply of regulation also result in Chinese trade surplus. The persistence of Chinese trade surplus determines the consistent increase of RMB appreciation.Chapter III is the theoretical base of the study. It analyzes the factors influencing the imports of Chinese agricultural products, such as the consumption level of Chinese residents, the economic growth, the RMB exchange rate and the price of agricultural products home and abroad, thereby puts forward some implication which may need further study.Chapter IV to Chapter VII are empirical parts of the paper, which take monthly data from July 2005 to June 2008 as sample intervals to test implications attained in Chapter III.Chapter IV analyzes impacts of RMB appreciation on the scale and structure of Chinese agricultural products imports. This chapter can be divided into three parts. Based on the time series model, the first part is the empirical analysis of RMB appreciation, consumption level of Chinese residents, the price level home and abroad and their influence on the scale of Chinese agricultural products imports. The study shows that the increase of both RMB appreciation and consumption level of Chinese residents promote the growth of China’s agricultural imports in a certain extent, and the influence of the former one is the most remarkable. However, the study does not prove the influence of rising price home and abroad on Chinese agricultural imports. The second part adopts panel data model to analyze different effect of RMB appreciation and the economic growth (per capita added value of industrial output) in different areas (eastern, central and western part of China) on the per capita agricultural imports of corresponding areas. The analysis shows that both RMB appreciation and per capita economic growth promote agricultural import growth of each area, and both have the most significant effect on per capita agricultural imports in western China. With the help of panel data model, the third part analyzes the impacts of RMB appreciation and rising Chinese residents’ consumption level on the structure of Chinese agricultural imports. The result shows that RMB appreciation and rising consumption level of Chinese residents has promoted the import growth on Chinese livestock and plants. There is more effect on import of plants.Chapter V analyzes the influence of RMB appreciation on the operator, trade pattern and source of Chinese agricultural imports. This chapter consists three parts. Using panel data model, the impact of RMB appreciation and rising consumption level of Chinese residents on import operators is analyzed in the first part. Result shows they contribute to the growth of China’s state-owned agricultural imports enterprises and foreign-invested importing agribusiness, with greater contribution to the former. Their impacts on trade pattern are discussed in the second part, which shows that RMB appreciation promoted the import growth in the form of general and processing trade model. The RMB appreciation is more beneficial to import growth in processing trade model, while the rising consumption level benefits that under general trade pattern and harm that under processing trade pattern. The third part is the empirical analysis of the impacts on import sources. The result shows that RMB appreciation stimulates agricultural imports from all continents except for Oceania. The stimulation to imports from North and South America are most remarkable. The rising consumption level promotes agricultural imports from Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania, among which the impact on imports from North America is greatest.Chapter VI takes China’s soybean import and imports from the United States for example to carry on empirical analysis of RMB appreciation’ s impacts on China imports of soybean and other agricultural products from USA. This chapter consists three parts. The first part takes China’s soybean import as example to make regression analysis about the impact of RMB appreciation and rising consumption level on China’s soybean import. The result shows a positive effect. The second part studies China’s soybean import from America and uses impulse response analysis in vector auto-regressive (VAR) technology to analyze the impact. The study shows that RMB appreciation and rising consumption level stimulated the Chinese import of soybean from America. The third part takes China’s imports of agricultural product from the United States to study impacts of RMB appreciation, rising consumption level of Chinese residents and price level on domestic and foreign market on the agricultural imports from the United States to China. Result shows that the increase of consumption level of price level on domestic market promotes the imports from the United States to China, and the impact of former one is greater. However, the influence of RMB appreciation and price level on foreign market can’t be proved.Chapter VII applies time series model to analyze the impact of RMB appreciation on price of Chinese agricultural products on domestic market. The study shows that RMB appreciation promotes the increase of the price remarkable.Chapter VIII is conclusion of the research and thereby reveals its political implications and puts forward some countermeasures.The main innovations of the study are listed as follows.1. From the aspect of agricultural trade, current researches mainly focus on export and macro and qualitative analysis. The paper builds an analytical framework about the import effect of agricultural products resulting from RMB appreciation so as to quantitatively analyze the influence of RMB appreciation on the scale, structure, operator, pattern and source of Chinese agricultural imports, as well as domestic price of agricultural products, which has the characteristic of systematicness and perceptiveness.2. From the perspective of empirical research on factors affecting agricultural imports, most existing models are about national income and analysis of the relationship between national income and import demand. By decomposing national income, this paper sets up model to study the relationship between consumption of residents and the agricultural imports, thereby carries on quantitative research on the influence of rising consumption level of Chinese residents on Chinese agricultural imports while exchange rate changes and draw the conclusion which is instructive to the related decisions.3. From the aspect of the influence of the change of exchange rate on structure, operator, pattern and source of Chinese agricultural imports, most previous researches stay on the statistical comparative analysis and there are few references about econometric analysis. On the base of considering variable intercept and variable slope models, the paper establishes panel data model to calculate the different influence of RMB appreciation on structure, operator, pattern and source of Chinese agricultural imports and put forwards new points.更多还原