【作者】 姜涛；

【导师】 臧旭恒；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济建设取得了令人瞩目的辉煌成就,国民经济总量持续增长,城乡居民生活质量不断改善,不断进行着消费升级。伴随着居民的消费升级,我国产业结构也在不断变迁,经济资源从相对低效率的产业流向相对高效率的产业,产业结构变迁成为我国经济发展的主题。特别是在当前世界金融危机蔓延的情况下,出口受到严重制约,中国经济增长必须由以前的主要依靠投资和出口拉动,向消费与投资、内需与外需协调拉动转变,转变经济增长方式成为我国经济保持持续增长的关键,其中最重要的就是根据居民消费情况来调整现有的产业结构。居民消费升级与产业结构的内在关系成为当前中国经济学研究的重点问题,已有不少学者对此进行了研究,但研究结果略显零碎,缺乏系统性和完整性,研究的深度也不够,未能提出完整的分析框架,基于此种情况,本文对中国居民消费升级的产业结构效应进行了较为系统的理论和计量研究。在短缺经济中,生产决定消费,产业发展水平和结构决定居民消费结构;在生产过剩条件下,从长期而言,居民消费升级决定着产业结构的变迁。本文在梳理已有文献的基础上,对居民消费升级的产业结构效应的作用机制进行了理论分析:当居民消费发生变动时,首先会引起生产最终产品产业的产出变动;最终产品产业的产出变动通过投资需求的形式,影响到上游生产资料产业的产出变动。本文把前者称为居民消费升级的直接产业结构效应,把后者称为居民消费升级的间接产业结构效应。在理论分析的基础上,本文从转型期中国居民消费升级的直接和间接产业结构效应两个方面,对改革开放三十年来中国居民消费升级的产业结构效应进行了实证分析。为了准确的计量居民消费升级的直接和间接效应,本文拓展了Chenery(1960)和Syrquin(1976)的需求结构分解分析方法(SDA),计算居民消费升级的产业结构效应的大小。考虑到居民消费升级不仅有消费水平的提高,更有消费结构的调整,本文在原SDA分析方法的基础上,把影响各产业产出的最终需求做了进一步分解,把城乡居民最终消费需求的影响分解为消费结构和消费水平变动两个方面,建立本文的SDA实证分析方法。之后采用1985年至2005年间的8张投入产出表,运用拓展后的SDA分析框架,通过矩阵运算得到各时间段上中间需求、最终需求,以及最终需求中城乡居民消费和固定资产投资的产业结构效应大小。然后,分析比较中间需求和最终需求的产业结构效应,发现最终需求的产业结构效应要强于中间需求,并且最终需求中的居民消费和固定资产投资是拉动产业结构变动的两个决定性因素。对居民消费升级直接产业结构效应的分析,是按农村和城镇居民分别进行的,并对两者进行了比较,对于居民消费升级间接产业结构效应的考察,采用了时间序列分析和SDA分析相结合的方法,通过协整分析证明居民消费升级与固定资产投资之间相互关系的稳定性,并且进一步验证居民消费升级是固定资产投资增加的格兰杰原因。然后采用ARMA(1,1)模型,对居民消费升级和固定资产投资之间的相互关系进行量化分析,在确定居民消费和固定资产投资之间的总量关系之后,接下来使用SDA分析方法,把固定资产投资对各具体产业的影响进行详细分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economy of china has been developing well since 1978. There is Continuous improvement in the everyday consumption of the Chinese, as well as the the change of the industrial structure. The relationship of consumption upgrading and industrial structure adjustment has always been the concern of the economists and the government. Lots of economists have done research on this subject. But the result is not satisfying, for it is partial and not systematic, as well as the depth of the research needs to be deepened. That is why this thesis carries out a systematic theoretic and systematic research on the effect of consumption upgrading on industrial structure.A framework was developed on the basis of the SDA analysis by Chenery(1960) and Syquin(1976). The effect of the change in Final demand is decomposed further, that is the effect of consumption is decomposed into level effect and structural effect. The product demand of industry can be sorted into intermediate and final demand. Intermediate demand is the demand between industries, which reflects the technology. Technology and final demand are both important factors affecting the industrial structure. After analyzing the input and output table(IO) between 1987 and 2005 using the framework develop above, which will be named structural decomposition analysis(SDA), a result was found that intermediate demand and the final demand is the main source of industrial development, and the effect of intermediate is smaller than the final demand.On the basis of SDA a new framework is developed on analyzing the effect of consumption upgrading on industrial development, which is a contribution of this thesis. Consumption upgrading affects the industrial structure in two ways. Firstly, it influences the terminal industry, such as textile, food and catering industry directly, which is named direct effect. The demand elasticity for differenct kinds of products differs greatly. When the revenue of the consumer increases, the proportion of demand increase for diffent product defers greatly. That changes the importance of some industry in the structure. Secondly, consumption upgrading needs investment in some emerging industry, which increases the importance of heavy industry, such as machinery and steel, which is named indirect effect. From the analysis of the fourth chapter, we know investment is the dominant force of the insustrial structural change.The direct effect is analyzed for rural and urban consumers separately. The structural effect of the agricultural consumer’s consumption is inverse u shaped from 1987 to 2005, the maximum point of the u is 1995. The consumption accelerates the development of agriculture, food & catering industries first. Then the chemical, electricity, petroleum and machinery industries. The effect of urban consumer’s industrial effect is similar to that of the agricultural consumer, though differences is there. The influence of urban consumers is stronger than that of the agricultural consumers. The consumption of rural and urban consumers has different priority in stimulate the development of different industries, which contributes to the different growth rate among industries.The indirect effect of consumption is analyzed using time series analysis and SDA. The stability of the relation between consumption upgrading and investment was identified by method of cointegration analysis. The quantitive relation between the series of consumption and the investment is found using ARMA(1,1). One percent increase in Retail Sales of Consumer Goods leads to 0.073% increase in investment. The coefficient of AR(1) and MA(1) is 1 and 0.53, which indicates the investment in the prior period have strong impact on the investment of the current period. Once the relationship between consumption and investment was established SDA is used to analyze the effect of investment on structural change. The effect of investment on the first industry is small relative to that on second and third industry. But the effect on different industries is almost the same in different period, the strongest effect on the basic industries and resource-oriented industries, weak effect on service and agricultural industry.更多还原