【作者】 赵育梅；

【导师】 吕廷杰；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着3G牌照的发放,各电信运营商为应对激烈的市场竞争,纷纷加大投资提高网络覆盖,并积极进行网络设备的升级换代。在通信建设工程领域,无论是设备商,还是通信运营商,都在实际工程项目中主动或被动地在应用项目管理的技术方法和工具进行管理,但是这些管理大都是针对工程质量、进度和投资,针对风险管理的研究和实践非常少。随着我国通信建设进入高速增长期,技术的发展和竞争以及对于市场的竞争也随之进入白热化程度。通信建设项目复杂程度也越来越高,不仅涉及面广泛,包括投资方、业主、总承包商、分包商、监理商以及政府部门等,而且各参与主体之间的互相影响也使得项目管理愈加复杂。再加上项目所处外部环境的不确定性,使得通信工程项目建设风险不断增加。面对复杂的宏观环境和更多的参与主体,如何提升企业风险管理能力和效率,确保稳定安全的建设环境,降低项目建设风险是当务之急。风险管理是项目管理的一个重要方面,虽然风险管理研究的成熟度很高,但是风险管理在通信行业的应用和发展比较晚,针对通信建设工程方面的研究和应用也非常少,所以其管理水平相比其他行业还比较落后。目前的很多通信工程项目在实践中都是依据项目负责人的经验来决策,细节缺乏科学的数据和管理流程。EPC模式在国际上应用广泛,是我国通信工程建设项目管理模式的发展方向。所以对EPC模式下的通信建设工程项目风险管理进行研究具有一定的前瞻性。本文的研究是从通信建设工程项目管理实践出发,通过对以往通信建设工程项目历史资料进行归纳和总结,构建风险因素结构,并在对已识别出来的风险因素进行定性和定量分析和评估的基础上,提出相应风险对策,从而为风险管理者提供风险数据和理论模型,并期望可以进一步指导实践。通过这种“从实践中总结并上升到理论,再用理论去指导实践,最后把改进后的实践效果再回归促进理论研究”的螺旋式上升的理论和实践相统一的原则,期望能够为风险管理者在复杂情况下的风险管理和决策提供有借鉴意义和参考价值的理论依据、判别标准和实施法则,从而进一步推动风险管理的研究和发展。从建设工程领域的研究发现,大量的项目风险分析和评估,都是从定性角度去分析和阐述,定量评估非常少,更不用说通信建设工程领域了。本文在研究现有文献和工程实践资料的基础上,从通信建设工程实践出发,对以下方面进行了研究和创新:1、目前对于风险管理的定量研究,大部分是基于二维变量。本文在对风险内涵和特点进行综述的基础上,提出二重四维风险变量。此外在对EPC模式下业主和总承包商风险因素进行具体分析和深入阐述的基础上,构建三层次风险结构,并提出项目风险清单以及本文的风险管理脉络。2、在AHP方法基础上运用模糊综合评价法进行风险分析和评估;并在文中提出的风险四维变量的基础上,将其中的风险损失分解为风险对进度、质量和成本的影响,从而构建六维不均衡功效函数。最后通过实证部分对这两种方法进行应用研究和比较,提高风险分析和评估的全面性。3、从招投标、三方以及总分包三个角度对EPC模式下通信建设工程项目风险博弈进行深入的分析和研究,并得出结论(详见第四章)4、对风险应对策略进行深入分析和比较,就其前提条件、具体方式、结果、手段和适用风险类型构建PC风险策略图以及风险应对分析表。本文采取的主要研究思路是定性和定量相结合、理论和实践相结合的原则。本文技术路线的核心是建立两个数学模型:基于AHP方法的模糊综合评价模型以及基于风险四维变量的六维不均衡功效函数,并从三个角度进行风险博弈的研究。本文重点运用模糊数学、功效函数、博弈论、管理学等理论与方法进行研究。本文共分六章:第一章主要是对风险和风险管理的内涵及其研究背景以及通信建设工程风险管理研究现状进行了分析和阐述;第二章主要是对EPC模式下通信建设工程项目风险因素进行识别;第三章对EPC模式下通信建设工程项目风险因素进行分析和评估;第四章建立通信建设工程项目风险计划并提出其风险监控和应对措施,本章还针对EPC模式下三种风险博弈进行研究并得出结论;第五章在前几章理论分析的基础上进行实践验证,最后在此基础上提出具体应对措施;第六章对全文的研究工作进行总结,提出主要研究成果,并指出研究的不足以及未来的研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the issuance of 3G licenses, the telecom operators increase investment to improve the network coverage, and carry out the upgrading of network equipment in order to cope with the fierce market competition actively. In the field of communication, both equipment manufacturers and telecom operators are actively or passively applying the technology methods and tools of project management in their process of managing, but these are for the management of project quality、schedule and investment, researches and practices that aim for the risk management are quiet few. With the entering to the rapid increasing period of communications construction of our country, technological development and competition as well as competition in the market also come into the white-hot extent. Complexity of the Communication construction projects is becoming more and more sophisticated, not only in the aspect of so many sides it involved: investors, owners, general contractors, subcontractors, supervision as well as government departments, but also the mutual influence of the participator makes project management more complex. In addition, the uncertainty of the external environment in projects makes the risk increase. Facing with the more complex macroeconomic environment and more participants, how to enhance the enterprise risk management capabilities and efficiency to ensure a stable security construction environment and to reduce risk is a priority thing. Risk management is an important aspect of project management, although the study of risk management has become a high degree, but the use and development in the communications industry is late, and the researches and applications are also very little, and the management level compared with other industries is relatively backward. At present, many communication projects in practice are making decision based on the experience of the project leader so that the details are lack of scientific data and management processes.EPC model is widely used in the various countries, it is also the future way of the communications construction project management models of our country.Therefore, the research to the risk management of the communications construction under EPC model has a forward looking.The aim of this article is from the practice of project management of communication construction, through summarize the historical data of communication construction project management, build risk factor structure and put forward relative risk strategy basing on the analysis which with some qualitative and quantitative methods, so as to supply data and theoretical model to risk manager and hope to further instruct practice. Through the method of summarizing from practice to theory and then using this theory to guide practice, finally using the improved practice to promote the research of theory, expecting provide some examples and reference value to risk managers’ and improve their decision level, thereby promote the study and develop the risk management. From the research of construction, we can find that many analysis and evaluation of project risk are all analyze from qualitative, quantitative analysis is very little, not to mention the communication construction engineering field. This article is based on the existing literature and engineering practice, start with the practice of communication construction engineering, research and innovation from the following aspects.First: Majority Quantitative Study of risk management now is based on two-dimensional variables. In this paper, on the base of illustrating the risk’s connotation and characteristics, I put forward the definition of risk based on the two level and four dimensional variables In addition, on the basis of carrying out the specific analysis and deep illustrating to the risk factors of both owners and the general contractor under EPC model, we give out the three level and 17 risk factor list based on the communications’ construction projects and skeleton of risk management.Second: we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for risk analysis and assessment based on AHP.The loss is split into the influence of progress, quality and cost for the risk of four-dimensional variables in the text in order to build a six-dimensional uneven variables power function.Finally, some empirical methods are applied in the research by comparing the two methods in order to improve the comprehensiveness and reliability of risk analysis and assessment.Third: we study the risk game of communication construction projects under EPC mode from the below three ways: the tendering and bidding, three-sides of the owner and the general contractors and the supervision, the owner and the general contractor. At last we draw the conclusion.Fourth: we conduct an in-depth risk analysis and counter measures, then build a PC risk strategy arrow diagram and PC risk strategy response analysis table from prerequisite, specific way, result, the means and the application of the risk type.In this paper, the main research ideas I take is the principal of combining qualitative and quantitative, and combining theory and practice. In this paper, the core technology is to build two mathematical models: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for risk analysis and assessment based on AHP method and six-dimensional uneven variables power function based on risk four-dimensional variables, and study the risk game of the communication construction projects under the EPC mode from three ways mainly using the method of fuzzy mathematics, power function, game theory, management theory and methods, etc.This article is divided into six chapters: Chapter I illustrates and analyze the connotation, research background and communication projects’ development of the risk and risk management; Chapter II is to identify risk factors of communication construction projects under EPC model; Chapter III is the analysis and assessment of communications construction project risk factors under the EPC mode; Chapter IV is to establish communication construction project risk plan and its risk monitoring and response measures. The chapter also studies the risk game of communications construction project under the EPC mode from three ways and draw the conclusion; Chapter V is the practice validation on the base of previous chapters, finally puts some specific measures; Chapter VI summarizes the full text concluded that the main research results and pointed out the lack of research and future directions.更多还原