【作者】 管明；

【导师】 田金信；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 进入新世纪以来,自发性乡城迁移和农民市民化逐渐成为了我国新时期经济发展中的重大现象。农民既是自发性乡城迁移和市民化的主体,又是城市化的主体和核心,在城市化的过程中发挥着主导和能动作用。我国的城市化进程也要求迁入城市的农民转化为市民。为此,本文提出“自发性乡城迁移式农民市民化”理论体系。自发性乡城迁移式农民市民化具有乡村城镇化不可比拟的优点,能够很好地解决我国二元经济问题。在这个过程中,乡村人变为城市人,融入城市生活,建设城市,从而使城市向着更高层次迈进。假设农民是理性的自发性乡城迁移者。他们受到五种经济力的作用。根据理论分析,农业财政政策和不稳定收入都影响农民迁入城市。农民通过比较成本与收益权衡在农村是否种田,然后权衡是否进城务工。自发性乡城迁移式农民市民化主体包括:失地农民和自发进城务工的农民。前者通过生活成本和分离成本的比较,分化为“季节一人”迁移、“永久一人”迁移、和“永久全家”迁移三类人群。后者在郊区城市化初期无法在原居住地工作而被迫进城务工。如果城市计划者重视失地农民的利益,使用动态单中心城市模型分析发现,考虑运输技术进步时,如果维持消费水平不变,那么城市公共物品供给增长率与通勤恩格尔系数存在线性关系。我们基于两种自发性乡城迁移式农民市民化模式中的农民收入增长率使用拉姆齐模型研究了城市增长过程。研究发现,自发性乡城迁移式农民市民化之后的消费水平并不是农民的最优消费水平而是政府强加的消费水平,政府购买不会对经济系统的均衡路径产生影响。完整的农民市民化包括:身份市民化、思想市民化、技能市民化和地域市民化四个方面。本文使用经济理论对上述四个方面的转化分别构建了理论模型,并分别得出了相应的结论。自发性乡城迁移式农民技能市民化是农民根据自身的经济约束做出培训决策和进城务工决策的过程。根据培训前农民是否有城市部门需要的技术、农民是否接受失业技能培训、培训期后农民是否进城务,自发性乡城迁移式农民技能市民化划分为十类最优化问题。短期内,自发性乡城迁移式农民技能市民化对城市经济结构不产生影响;劳动力价格和商品价格可以表征城市经济结构;存在最优的自发性乡城迁移人口规模。自发性乡城迁移式农民思想市民化是城市农民在与城市人交往过程中不断获得城市人思想文化意识,并与其相互融合的过程。成功的自发性乡城迁移式农民思想市民化过程包括:城市人排斥与城市农民抵触、城市人厌恶与城市农民逢迎、城市人友好与城市农民防范和城市人排斥与城市农民相互融合,最终城市人与城市农民成为知己式的朋友。但是,囿于城市农民个人的性格、经历和工作环境等因素,有些城市农民会与城市人老死不相往来。自发性乡城迁移式农民身份市民化是城市政府根据私人物品、“搭便车”公共物品和户籍性物品增长状况确定户籍发放人口数量的过程。根据内生经济增长理论,可承受的乡城迁入率与私人物品部门增长率、可承受的乡城迁入率与“搭便车”公共物品部门增长率、户口发放率与户籍性物品部门增长率之间存在一定的数学关系。保持城市经济的增长速度是增加可承受的乡城迁入率和较高户口发放率的前提。自发性乡城迁移式农民地域市民化是农民从低等级城市向中等级城市迁移再向高等级城市迁移的过程。由于商品和人力资本从低等级城市向高等级城市流动,生产和消费支出发生空间转移,商品消费种类存在城市等级差别。自发性乡城迁移式农民地域市民化可以给农民带来利益。自发性乡城迁移式农民地域市民化的阶段性中止受到运输成本和商品替代弹性的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the beginning of new century, voluntary rural-urban migration and peasants’citizenization gradually becomes the phenomon of Chinese economic development in new period.Rural person is not only the main body of voluntary rural-urban migration and peasants’citizenization but also the main body and core of urbanization, who play a dominant and motile role. Chinese urbanization also demands rural person change into citen. Hence, voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’citizenization is presented.Voluntary rural-urban migration typed peasants’citizenization has some merits that rural interior citizenization has not, which can solve well dual economic problems in China. During the process of it, rural person turn into urban person, is harmony with urban life and construct city, result in improvement of urban areas.It is assumed that rural persons are rational. Rural persons are affected by five economic forces. According to theoretical analysis, agricultural fiscal policy and unsteady income all influence migration decision of rural persons.Peasants in rural areas tradeoff farm work and non-farm work,in the urban areas they tradeoff rural work and urban work. Urban peasants experienced ten migration costs and potential returnees should tradeoff surplus money and rural expected income. Main body of voluntary rural-urban migration can be categorized with, voluntary migration peasants and land-lost peasants. As far as the former, conditions of migration in“seasonal alone”,“permanent alone”and“permanent with the family”, though comparing life cost with separation cost, are concluded. As far as the latter, at the beginning of suburbanization, lost-land peasants have no chance of working there and are forced to commute to CBD for job. If urban planner attaches importance to the benefits of lost-land peasants, lost-land peasants commute CBD for job which will lead to relationship between growth rate of urban public goods and commuting Engel coefficient in dynamic monocentric model. The analysis finds that there is an optimal growth path without or with transportation technology improvement.Considering income growth rate of the two type peasants; relationship between voluntary rural-urban migration and optimal urban growth path is studied with Ramsey’s growth model. Some intuitive results are concluded that peasants’consumption after urbanization is not their optimal consumption but governmental result.And governmental purchase does not affect economic balance growth path.Complete citizen realization of rural person should experience status realization, thought realization, skill realization and zone realization. Voluntary rural-urban migration theories and citizen theories are constructed and corresponding conclusions are concluded with economic theories. Voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’skill citizenization is the process that peasants under the economic restraints make training decision and voluntary rural-urban migration. According to whether having skill city-needed or not, whether accepting skill city-needed or not and whether entering city for urban job after training or not, the rural labors can classified into ten kinds. Effects of voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’skill civilization on urban economic structure are inconspicuous in the short run; its effects depend on goods price and labors’wages; there is optimal migration population. Voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’thought citizenization is the process that urban peasants affiliate with urban residents,identify with urban ideologies and assimilate with urban persons.Successful voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’thought citizenization process contains:urban citizens exclude & urban peasants collide,urban citizens detest &urban peasants ingratiate,urban citizens express amity& urban peasants keep away,urban citizens and urban peasants become friends, in the end they become bosom friends. But, limited by special character, experience and working environment of urban peasants, some of them will never have relationship with urban citizens. Voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’status citizenization is the process that urban government set down hukou admittance policy in light of growth rate of private goods,“free-rider”public goods and hukou goods. Based on endogenous growth theory, the functional relationship between the affordable growth rate of voluntary rural-urban migration and the growth rate of private goods, the functional relationship between the affordable growth rate of voluntary rural-urban migration and the functional relationship between the growth rate of“free-rider”public, goods and the growth rate of hukou admittance and the growth rate of public goods are concluded. Hence, high urban economic growth rate is the perquisite of keeping high rate of voluntary rural-urban migration and hukou admittance. Voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’regional citizenization is the process that peasnts migrates from low rank city to medium rank city and then high rank city. Merchandise and human capital flow from low rank city to high rank city, in turn, production and consumption transfer spatially, there is difference of consumption variety in rank cities. Voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’regional citizenization is beneficial and feasible. Transportation cost and substitute elasticity of goods influence voluntary rural–urban migration typed peasants’regional citizenization. Finally, some suggestions are proposed.更多还原