【作者】 陈远章；

【导师】 李一智；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 当今世界已经进入风险社会,转型期中国正处于风险高发期。风险问题是一个很宽泛的课题。本文只涉及突发事件社会风险问题,重心在社会风险管理。本文运用唯物辩证法、系统分析法、演绎分析法、个案分析法、实证分析法等多种研究方法,对转型期中国突发事件社会风险的发生机理和深层根源进行探究,为我国突发事件社会风险管理提出总体思路和对策建议,并从管理学的角度构建预警指标体系和管理系统。本文主要分为五部分:第一部分主要阐述选题背景、国内外研究现状、研究的主要问题和意义、相关概念界定、研究思路以及理论基础。第二部分对转型期中国突发事件社会风险进行多维考察和根源探究。第三部分借鉴发达国家社会风险管理经验。第四部分是转型期中国突发事件社会风险管理创新研究。第五部分对转型期中国突发事件社会风险预警指标体系进行设计,并构建突发事件社会风险管理系统。本文对突发事件社会风险进行了多维考察。首先分析了四大风险类型,即自然灾害类、事故灾难类、公共卫生事件类、社会安全事件类,这基本上包括现阶段中国面临的主要社会风险类型。接下来,又分析了目前存在的五大社会风险高发人群,即利益受损者、就业受挫者、社会帮教对象、“问题商人”与“问题官员”、老弱病残的边缘群体,剖析了社会恐慌、社会创伤、社会失序三大社会损失。最后,分析了社会风险特征,即复杂性增强、内部性为主、人为性突出、规律性很强、宣泄性居多、危害性增大六个主要特征。通过上述考察,探究了突发事件类型、风险人群、社会损失以及社会风险特征,这样有利于提高突发事件社会风险管理的针对性和实效性。本文对转型期中国突发事件社会风险的根源进行探究。本文认为,权力失控是滋生社会风险的政治因素,权利失衡是滋生社会风险的法律因素,道德失范是滋生社会风险的道德因素,控制失效是滋生社会风险的管理因素,天人失调是滋生社会风险的生态因素。这几个方面的深层探究,为突发事件社会风险预警指标体系的设计和管理系统的构建提供了基础,这也是突发事件社会风险管理对策研究的前提。突发事件各不相同,但其社会风险管理却有其共性。本文提出了转型期中国突发事件社会风险管理创新的对策建议。一是坚持科学发展观,大力解决发展过程中出现的区域发展不平衡、经济社会发展不协调、人和自然不能和谐共存等社会问题,从根本上减少社会风险。二是适当“限强”、着力“扩中”、大力“扶弱”,维护社会公正,从利益入手化解社会风险。三是提高核心价值的整合度、社会主体的诚信度、社会阶层的开放度、民间组织的发育度,用软实力消弭社会风险。四是按照党委领导、政府负责、社会协同、公众参与的总体要求,全方位加大突发事件社会风险管理力度。本文在参考已有成果的基础上,遵循2007年10月召开的中国共产党的“十七大”精神,设计了由6个一级指标、12个二级指标、57个三级指标构成的“社会风险预警指标体系”。接下来,本文构建了由预警管理系统、应急管理系统、善后管理系统等3个子系统构成的管理系统。这套管理系统,可以通过仿真技术对社会运行态势进行有效监测,做出前瞻性判断和预警,并给出参考性对策建议,为决策者提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, the world has been into risk society, in the course of transformation, China is during high incidence of risk time. This thesis revolves only social risk problem of unexpected events, the center is social risk management. This thesis applies many research approaches, such as materialist dialectics, systematic analysis, deduction analysis, case analysis, empirical analysis and so on, probes into the cause mechanism and profound source of Chinese social risk of unexpected events in transition, provides overall train of thought and countermeasure suggestions for social risk management of unexpected events in our country, and builds forewarning norms system and management system from management discipline perspective.This thesis is divided into five parts: The first part mainly elaborates choosing background, the research status at home and abroad, main questions and meaning of research, definition of related concepts, research train of thought and theory basis. The second part makes inspection from many perspectives and probes into source of Chinese social risk of unexpected events in transition. The third part refers to experience of social risk management in advanced country. The forth part is research innovation of Chinese social risk management of unexpected events in transition. The fifth part designs forewarning norms system of Chinese social risk in transition, and builds its social risk management system.This thesis inspects social risk of unexpected events from many perspectives. First, it analyses four major kinds of risk, which are natural calamities problem, accidental disasters problem, public hygiene problem, social securities problem, the four major kinds of problem include by large faced social risk in China at present. Second, the thesis analyses current five major kinds of group prone to social risk, which are suffered interests loss group, which have difficult in getting a job, social rectified group, "trouble traders" and "trouble officials", the old, weak, ill and wounded marginal group, analyses three major kinds of social loss, which are social panic, social scar, social disorder. Last, the thesis analyses six major characters of social risk, which are complication is strengthening, majority is from the inside, man-made is obvious, norms are distinctive, giving vent is major, hazard is increasing. Through above studies, the thesis probes into risk sorts of unexpected events, risk group, social loss and characters of social risk, it is attribute to enhance the target and validity of social risk management of unexpected events.This thesis probes into the source of Chinese social risk of unexpected events in transition. It maintains that power getting out of control is the politic factor that causes social risk, rights and interests being out of balance is the law factor, morality losing standards is the moral factor, control losing validity is the management factor, ecology imbalance is the ecological factor. Looking into these aspects, the thesis provides basis for designing forewarning norms system of social risk of unexpected events and building management system, it is also the precondition of countermeasure research for social risk management of unexpected events.unexpected events are different, but social risk management have much in common. This thesis puts forward countermeasure suggestions for the innovation of social risk management of unexpected events on the basis of harmonious China. The first is to insist on scientific development viewpoint, devote great effort to solve social problems causing in the course of developing, such as regional development loses balance, economical and social development lose coordination, human being and natural world can not coexist harmoniously and so on, lessen social risk by getting to its root. The second is to "appropriately place restrictions on the powerful group", "focus expand the middle-ranking group", "vigorously support the disadvantaged group", safeguard society fairness, eliminate social risk from the angle of interests. The third is to enhance the reorganization level of core value, the credit level of social main body, the open level of social class, the growth level of folk organizations, eliminate social risk by soft power. The forth is that according to the total requirement, leaded by Party Committee, in the charge of government, social class cooperation, the public participation, to intensify the force of social risk management of unexpected events from all aspects. On the basis of previous achievements, in combination with the spirit of China’s seventeenth Communist Party Congress held in October,2007, the thesis designs "forewarning norms system of social risk", which consists of six 1-grade norms, twelve 2-grade norms, fifty-seven 3-grade norms, and builds management system, which is made up of three subsystems, the forewarning management system, the emergency management system, the aftermath management system. The series of management system can validly monitor the social operating trend by the techniques of simulating the real thing, get foresight judgement and forewarning, put forward countermeasure proposal for reference, provide the basis of scientific decision for persons who make it.更多还原