【作者】 邹志云；

【导师】 毛保华；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 城市经济的健康发展和城市功能的正常发挥很大程度上依赖于稳定可靠的运输网络,随着城市生活节奏的加快和工作效率的提高,这种依赖将与日俱增。因此,运输网络的可靠与否将直接影响到经济的发展和城市功能的发挥。城市道路网络系统是运输网络系统的关键部分,研究其可靠性具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。随着社会的进步,人们对道路网络处理日常和突发事件交通问题的应变能力提出了更高的要求,要求道路网络能够保证重要路段或OD对的车辆行驶顺畅。通过道路网络运营可靠性研究,可以找出网络供需矛盾及供需随机性规律,从而采取有效措施,减少由于其随机性带来的阻塞发生概率。目前,其他学者对道路网络系统可靠性和路网优化研究都有不少成果,但仍存在很多不足或需要改进的地方。对路网可靠性研究的不足主要体现在对可靠性指标的计算大都只在小型网络上测试过,并没有应用于实际的道路交通网络,同时存在很多严格的假设,而这些假设往往与实际情况并不吻合,现有的可靠性指标还不能完全评估路网的性能;对路网优化研究仍有需要解决的问题,包括路网优化的算法、网络节点变化的处理、路网优化中如何考虑路网可靠性等。鉴于这些不足或需要改进的方向,本文通过对城市道路网络可靠性研究现状及应用实质的分析,提出城市道路网络运营可靠性分析指标——容量限制行程时间可靠性(TRC),并建立相应的模型,最后将运营可靠性引入道路网络优化模型中。围绕城市道路网络运营可靠性问题和基于可靠性的道路网络优化问题,论文在已有研究成果的基础上开展了如下研究工作:1.分析了城市道路网络系统的不确定性,提出系统供需模型。将行程时间可靠性和容量可靠性进行综合分析,提出一种道路网络运营可靠性评价指标——容量限制行程时间可靠度(TRC)。在系统分析城市道路网络特性的基础上,从路、人、环境和管理四个方面,深入分析影响城市道路网络运营可靠性的各种因素,剖析各种因素的作用规律和作用机理,探究道路网络系统不可靠的根源,并提出了这些影响因素作用机理的概念模型。2.分析了不确定条件下路径选择行为及其影响因素,包括时间、经济、信息和心理因素的定性分析;阐述了不确定条件下路径选择理论,在期望效用理论与随机效用理论的基础上,引入“前景理论”;从出行者决策过程中的决策节点、决策时刻及决策阶段等方面,分析了基于“前景理论”的路径选择行为;建立了基于“前景理论”的不确定条件下路径选择行为理论模型,并给出了出行者备选路径集生成方法和出行者决策“参考点”的定义。3.对城市道路网络单元(路段和交叉口)的特性进行定性分析,提出路段和交叉口的交通组织方式,对路段的交通组织包括车道、车速、公交和行人过街组织在内的内容进行分析,并对无信号交叉口组织和有信号交叉口组织进行深入分析。在交通组织方式的基础上,根据交通供需随机性和随机变量的正态分布,建立了道路网络单元运营可靠性分析模型,研究了道路网络基本单元的运营可靠性分析方法。4.分析了GO法(一种以成功为导向的系统概率分析技术)的基本原理和基本方法,对相关操作符给出或推导出概率组合公式,分析了基于GO法的城市道路网络的系统特征和系统构成,研究了基于GO法的城市道路网络运营可靠性分析方法,建立了城市道路网络系统的GO图,采用概率组合公式算法执行GO运算,得到系统可靠性指标,并进行了实证研究。5.明确了基于TRC的城市道路网络优化目标、思路及决策变量;建立了基于TRC的城市道路网络优化模型,模型采用双层规划模型形式,上层模型以交通效益为目标函数,以TRC可靠度和污染排放量为约束条件,下层模型以交通量为目标函数和约束条件,上层模型中的阻抗和交通量由下层模型提供;采用改正遗传算法对优化模型进行求解;最后,进行了实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The healthy development of urban economy and urban function is largely dependent on stable and reliable transport network, and this dependence will increase with the accelerating rhythm of urban life and work efficiency. Therefore, whether a transportation network is reliable will be a direct impact on economic development and urban function. Urban road network system is the key part of the transport network system, so it is significant to study the reliability of it.With the development of the society, the road network’s ability of dealing with daily and urgent problems is required in deeper degree. It must ensure that vehicles on important road network sections or OD pairs run smoothly. Through the studies of road network system reliability, we can find out conflicts and stochastic laws of supply and demand in the network and take effective measures to reduce the blocking probability caused at random.At present, some other scholars have made great achievements on the study of the road network system reliability and optimization of road network, but there are still many deficiencies requiring of improvement. The deficiency is mainly embodied in the calculation of reliability index which is only tested in small networks but never used in practical road networks, and there are many strict assumptions that are often not coincide with the actual situation, more over, the reliability of the existing indicators of reliability can not fully assess the performance of road network; the problems still need to be resolved about optimization research of road network include the network optimization algorithms, the method of dealing with network node changes, and how to consider the road network reliability in the road network optimization etc.As a probability-based evaluation index, the reliability of urban road network has been developed rapidly in the field of urban road network state evaluation. Based on the research and application of the reliability of urban road network, it puts forward the analysis indicators of Travel time reliability under the limit of capacity(TRC), and then it establishes the relevant model and applies it in the road network optimization model.As to the urban road network system reliability issues and the optimization problem, this article does the following researches on the basis of existing researching results: 1、Analyzes the uncertainty Of urban road network system, and puts forward the supply and demand model of the system. Analyzes the travel time reliability and capacity reliability comprehensively and puts forward a reliability evaluation indicator of road network - Travel time reliability under the limit of capacity(TRC). Analyzes the impact of urban road network operators deeply in the people, road, environment and management on the basis of the urban road network characteristic analysis、analyzes the law and operating mechanism of each feature and explores the real failure reasons and proposes the conceptual model of the mechanism of these influencing factors.2、Analyzes the path choice behavior and its influencing factors in uncertain conditions which include the qualitative analysis of time, economy, information and psychological factors; expounds the route choice theory in uncertainty, and proposes the "prospect theory" on the basis of the expected utility theory and random utility theory. Based on this theory it analyzes the route choice action in the traveler’s decision-making node, the decision-making time and decision-making stage and establishes the relevant model ,and then it gives out the alternative route collection generating methods and defines the traveler decision-making "reference point".3、Analyzes the characters of the urban road network unit (links and intersections), puts forward the organization method of the road and intersection, analyzes the organizations of the links ,including traffic lanes, speed, transit and organizations of pedestrians crossing the street, and makes deep analysis of the organization of unsignalized intersection and signalized intersection. Based on the analysis of organization method, it establishes the analyzing model of urban road network operating reliability in accordance with the normal school of traffic supply and demand , and then it studies the analyzing method of TRC.4、Analyzes the basic principles of GO method (a success-oriented system probabilistic analysis technology),and gives the probability combination formulas of relevant operators. Analyzes the characteristics and constitution of urban road network system based on it、studies the analyzing method of urban road network system reliability based on GO method , establishes the GO map of the system、calculates the system reliability indicators based on GO algorithm with probability Combination formula and demonstrates it.5、Gives clear optimization objectives, methods and decision-making variables of urban road network based on the TRC; sets up the urban road network optimization bi-level programming mode. The upper model is based on traffic efficiency as the objective function and the TRC reliability and pollution emissions as constraints, while the lower model is based on traffic volume as the objective function and constraint conditions. The upper model impedance is generated in the lower model. Then, it calculates the model and come to the solution of it in final.更多还原