【作者】 王思强；

【导师】 关忠良；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着社会经济的发展,我国对能源的需求日益增长。研究能源预测预警体系,对保障我国能源安全、指导能源决策和管理具有重要的意义。论文在回顾和吸收相关领域研究成果的基础上,结合我国中长期能源发展实际,对能源预测预警的理论和实践进行了有益的研究和探索。论文较为系统地提出了能源预测预警体系的基本理论。建立了能源预测预警基本概念,阐释了能源预测与预警的关系,表明能源预测是预警的基础,能源预警是预测的应用。明确了能源预测要注重数据基础、方法选择和结果分析,能源预警要把握好警义、警源、警兆和排警措施等基本要素。对能源预测预警的过程进行了系统的分析和研究。论文构建了涵盖整个能源领域的预测预警框架体系。能源预测预警系统由煤炭、电力、石油、天然气、可再生能源和新能源、能源经济子系统组成。从能源系统的构成出发,设计了各子系统的预警指标,初步形成了能源预测预警需求的指标体系。论文对SGM(Second Generation Model)模型进行了改进,扩展了模型的中长期预测功能,并将其应用于能源预测预警研究。将模型原来的22个部门扩展到适合我国国情的39个部门,相应地扩展了部门需求函数;考虑到我国近年来大力提倡提高能源资源的综合利用率,模型中增加了循环经济函数,使模型中有关能源资源开发利用的数学描述更接近实际;使用混合型投入产出表技术实现了各能源品种在物质量和价值量上的一致性,为模型的优化计算奠定了基础。论文在预测预警理论研究的基础上,结合我国中长期经济和能源发展实际,选取有代表性的关键指标,构建了我国的中长期能源预测预警体系。在对我国中长期能源资源状况和供给能力进行分析的基础上,分基准情景和可持续发展情景,对2020年和2030年一次能源需求进行了预测,对能源安全状况进行了预警。结果表明,在基准情景下,2020年和2030年的能源预警综合评价等级均为危险;在可持续发展情景下,2020年和2030年的能源预警综合评价等级均为值得关注。从能源系统的组成分析得出,我国煤炭子系统安全性相对较高,子系统的危险性主要来自可开采煤炭储量不能满足持续开发的需要;石油子系统安全形势最不容乐观,子系统的危险性主要是来自我国石油资源的馈乏和对外依存度的不断提高;天然气子系统的危险性主要来自我国天然气基础设施建设难以满足需求的快速增长;电力子系统在设定情景下基本能够满足电力需求的增长。要解决我国的能源问题,应立足于现有的优势能源资源,走可持续发展的道路。论文还分别从完善能源预测预警制度、深化理论和方法研究、建立保障措施和加强国际合作交流等方面,对建立我国综合性能源预测预警系统提出了相关的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rapid economic development, the energy demand is growing up consistently in China. The energy problem is becoming more and more serious, therefore it is extremely urgent to establish the energy early warning system to improve energy security and assist energy policy and management in China. Based on review and adsorption of the early warning research in relative fields, the theory of energy forecasting and early warning system (EFEWS) is put forward and applied with the characteristics of the energy system in consideration.The basic concepts of EFEWS are formed to establish the theoretical basis with reference to the warning concepts in other fields. Then the relationship between the early forecasting and early warning is discussed. It shows that energy forecasting is the basis of early warning, and the energy early warning is an application of the forecasting results. The energy forecasting should focus on the database, method and result analysis. The energy warning should emphasize warning meanings, source, symbol, and mitigation measures. Finally the steps for EFEWS are systematically analyzed one by one.The EFEWS framework is established considering the whole energy system. The EFEWS is composed of coal, power, oil, natural gas, renewable energy and new energy, and energy economic subsystem. The indices of the respective subsystem are set up and the index system is then established.The modified SGM (Second Generation Model) is applied to establish the model base for the EFEWS, and its long term forecasting function is extended. The number of sectors is extended from 22 to 39 to be adapted to China status, as well as the demand functions. The circular economy is also considered to make the mathematical energy description more close to the reality as the resource saving and comprehensive reclamation are being advocated. The hybrid input-output technique is used to keep consistency between the physical quantity and value quantity for energy.The key indices are selected for the mid-long EFEWS in China. Based on the energy resource status, the primary energy demands in 2020 and 2030 are projected by base scenario (BS) and sustainable development scenario (SDS). The energy security is analyzed for 2020 and 2030 on the basis of the primary energy demand predication with SGM. The comprehensive warning indices are dangerous in 2020 and 2030 under BS, and worth attention in 2020 and 2030 under SDS. For the energy subsystem, the status of the coal is relatively secure, the danger mainly lies in the resources; the oil is the most pessimistic, the danger mainly lies in resources and high foreign dependence; the danger of the natural gas mainly lies in the infrastructure construction; the power is secure in the set scenarios. The sustainable development road must be insisted on and the predominant energy categories be relied to cope with the energy crisis.Some suggestions are given to establish the EFEWS from policy construction, theory and method study, security measures and international cooperation in China.更多还原