【作者】 王华亭；

【导师】 冯俊文；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 管理决策是管理主体针对管理中的问题,制定解决问题的各种可行方案,选择最佳方案并实施的全部活动过程;也是一个按照情报、设计、抉择和实施四项活动划分并按顺序进行的连续反馈循环过程。任何一项管理决策活动的完成都需要管理决策者(管理决策的主体)掌握一定的认识、理解和分析管理问题的管理决策知识,要求管理决策者具有一定的管理决策修养和素质,要求管理决策者具有一定的管理决策经验。在管理或日常活动中通常把知识、素质和经验的组合体或集成体称为能力。对于一个具体的决策问题而言,完成决策行为需要的能力是多方面的,不仅有多样性、动态性、及时性,而且能在需要的时间和地点等随时提取。因此从对能力集合进行分析(简称:能力集分析)的角度研究管理决策问题是管理决策研究的一个重要维度。能力集合分析的目的在于界定真正需要的能力集合,和决策者实际上拥有的能力集合,并且帮助决策者有效地扩张自己的能力集合以利决策。这里,能力集合扩张(Expansion of Competence Set)是指决策者对这一问题作决策时,在限定时间内,由本身已经获得的能力集(Sk(E))扩张到解决问题所需的能力集(Tr(E))。本论文将对面向管理决策的能力问题从能力集合的角度进行系统深入的理论研究,并选择政府行政管理决策和企业自主创新管理决策领域的具体管理决策能力问题进行科学的实证和应用研究。有关研究将是对现有的管理决策理论以及企业和行政管理能力理论的重要补充和完善。传统的能力集合分析主要集中在离散能力集的扩张研究,且集中于确定性分析。本论文借助于不确定性推理技术和原理(概率推理、模糊推理、灰色推理等)研究不确定情形下的能力集合扩张问题并提出了多种扩张方法。另外,现实中的行为与决策问题大多是多目标问题,而传统的能力集合分析主要研究单目标问题。论文将现有的能力集合扩张方法扩张到多目标情形,建立了多目标能力集扩张方法。此外,考虑到能力集合扩张问题有时具有动态性,动态规划方法来研究动态能力集扩张问题。通过本论文的研究,将建立一个对于组织的管理决策能力进行系统分析和研究的基本理论,为能力建设和管理决策提供一个较为科学和合理的框架体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The management decision is the complete active procedure which the main manager, in view of question of management, formulates each kind of feasible plan to solving question, and choices the preferred plan and implements it; also is a series feedback cyclic process which carving up the question according to the information, the design, chooses and implements four actives and carring on the division according to the order. Any management decision activity completion needs the management decision-maker (the management decision main body) to grasp certain cognizance, understanding and management decision knowledge of analysing management question, and requests the management decision-maker to have certain management decision training and the quality, and requests the management decision-maker to have certain management decision experience. In the management or the daily activity, we usually call the knowledge, the quality and experience’s assembly or integration to be competence. Speaking of a concrete decision-making question, the needing competence of completing decision-making behavior is various, not only has the multiplicity, the dynamic, timeliness, but also can momentarily withdraw in the needing time and place and so on. Therefore, from the angle of carring on the analysis on competence set (i.e.: competence set analysis), researching management decision question is an important dimension of management decision research. Competence set analysis’s goal lies in limiting the true required competence set, and competence set that decision-maker has in fact, and helps the decision-maker to expand own competence set effectively in order to helping the decision-making. Expansion of competence set refers to decision-makers making decisions from the obtained competence set to the required one of resolving problem on a particular issue in a limited time. Expansion of competence set refers to decision-makers making decisions from the obtained competence set to the required one of resolving problem on a particular issue in a limited time.The paper will carry on the system thorough fundamental research on competence question facing on management decision from competence set’s angle, and chooses the government administration decision-making and the enterprise independent innovation management decision domain’s concrete management decision competence question to earring on the scientific diagnosis and the application research. The related research will be the important supply and the consummation for the existing management decision theory as well as the enterprise and the administration competence theory. The traditional competence set analysis mainly concentrates in the separate competence set expansion research and the definite analysis. The paper with study competence set expansion question under the indefinite situation and proposes many kinds of espansion methods by the uncertainty inference technology and principle (probability inference, fuzzy inference, gray inference and so on). Moreover, behavior and the decision-making question in the reality mostly are the multi-objective questions, but traditional competence set analysis mainly research simple target question. The paper expands competence set expansion method to the multi-objective situations, and establishes the multi-objective competence set expansion method. In addition, in view of competence set expansion question sometimes is dynamic, the paper studies the dynamic competence set expansion question adopting the dynamic programming method.Through the paper’s research, we can establish an elementary theory to carrying on the system analysis and research regarding organization’s management decision competence, and provide a more scientific and reasonable frame system for competence construction and management decision.更多还原