产业的转移、升级、整合与中国经济

【作者】 张若雪；

【导师】 袁志刚；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文在全球化、工业化、城市化的背景下,在内生增长理论的框架中,思考改革开放以来中国经济的快速增长、当前外部经济的失衡、中国产业结构的升级、以及经济圈的产业整合等问题。这些问题之间关系密切,其形成与全球化进程中世界范围内的产业转移、中国的要素禀赋特征、以及中国内部的结构性缺陷等因素息息相关。改革开放以来中国经济高速发展的主要推动力是产业和劳动力的“双转移”:一方面是全球产业尤其是制造业向中国的转移,另一方面是中国城乡之间的劳动力转移。中国大量的劳动力从农村转移到城市,其实质就是进入全球产业分工链,发挥比较优势,参与国际分工。在这个产业与劳动力“双转移”的过程中,由于中国的技术创新能力较差、金融市场效率较低、投资领域存在行政壁垒等结构性问题,中国经济面临严重的外部失衡。本文利用内生技术创新(R＆D)的框架,在开放宏观的条件下把上述机制形式化,分析像中国这样的人口庞大的发展中国家加入全球分工体系,对世界产业转移、技术进步和经济增长的影响,并在这个框架中分析了外部经济失衡出现的机制。作者发现,外部经济失衡是由于内部结构性问题所导致的均衡结果。产业结构水平较低、升级缓慢的背后是技术水平较低、进步缓慢。本文以珠三角为例分析技术进步缓慢的原因,作者发现技术水平较低、进步缓慢的关键原因是在厂商技术采用和劳动力人力资本投资之间存在互补性,一定条件下这会导致多重均衡:一种是“高技术均衡”,即厂商的技术进步较快,劳动力的人力资本水平较高;另一种是”低技术均衡”,即厂商的技术进步较慢,劳动力的人力资本水平较低。本文利用人力资本(Human Capital)和干中学(Learning by Doing)的框架,对这一机制进行了刻画。作者认为,中国产业结构水平较低、升级缓慢的根本原因是我国劳动力绝对数量较大和相对素质较差,由于在技术采用和人力资本之间存在互补性,因此我们长期处于全球产业分工链的低端。这是由我国要素禀赋的特征决定的均衡结果。因此推进产业结构的升级可以从两个方而着手,分别是对企业的技术创新和劳动力的人力资本投资进行补贴。由于人力资本投资的外部性更强,因此政策的着重点应是提高劳动力的人力资本水平。产业整合是产业结构优化升级的重要方面,经济圈产业整合的关键是中心城市和其他城市之间如何进行专业化分工。专业化分工的原则应是充分发挥各类城市的比较优势。中心城市和其他城市之间主要有两种专业化分工形式,分别是部门分工和功能分工。从发达国家的历史经验看,随着通讯和交通技术的进步,经济圈的中心城市与其他城市之间出现了从部门分工向功能分工的演变趋势:中心城市更多的发挥管理、研发和服务的功能,生产功能则主要由经济圈其他城市承担。数据表明,近年来我国的长三角也出现了这种趋势。本文在内生技术进步(R&D)的框架内,分析了经济圈专业化分工形式演变的机制。发现无论是技术层面的企业异地管理成本的减少,还是制度层面的针对产业转移的行政壁垒的降低,均衡时都会使经济圈中心城市和其他城市之间的部门分工程度降低,功能分工程度上升,并且这个过程有利于经济圈整体的技术进步。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the circumstances of globalization, industrialization and urbanization, the present paper investigates several topics of China’s economy in the light of endogenous economic growth theory, which includes the high-speed economic growth after the reform, current-account imbalance, and industry upgrade and integration.The most important impetus of China’s economic growth includes industry transfer and labor force mobility. After the reform and opening up of China, many industries especially manufacturing transfer from advanced countries to China. At the same time, more and more rural labor force moves into the cities and enter non-agricultural industries. In this process, China’s comparative advantage has been fully displayed. During the two-way transfer, China is confronted with severe current account imbalance because of structural problems, which include poor technology innovation capability, low efficiency of financial market, and investment barriers. According to the endogenous technology R&D model, the present paper constructs a formal analytical framework to investigate the mechanism of these issues. This paper rationalizes current account imbalance as an equilibrium outcome when different regions of the world differ in their economic structure.Industry upgrade is in fact technology upgrade. The present paper analyzes the mechanism of slow technology upgrade taking the Zhujiang delta as an example. The key reason is the complementation between technology adoption and human capital investment. This will lead to multi-equilibrium in some circumstances. One is the high-technology equilibrium, which refers to high-speed technology upgrade and high-level human capital; the other is the low-technology equilibrium, which refers to low-speed technology upgrade and low-level human capital. The present paper constructs a formal analytical framework to investigate this mechanism on the basis of human capital model and learning by doing model. China has been in the low-end of global industrial division chain since the reform and opening up, which is an equilibrium outcome of China’s factor endowment. To promote industry upgrade, the government had better subsidize technology innovation and human capital investment. Because the externality of human capital investment is larger, the government should focus financial support on human capital accumulation.Industry integration is an important aspect of metropolitan area’s optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The principle of industry integration is to exploit comparative advantage of all the cities, and the pivot is the mode of industry integration between the central city and the other cities. There are two paths of industry integration between the central city and the other cities, respectively are sector specialization and function specialization. From the experiences of developed countries, along the advancement of communication technology, there has been a shift in the main dimension along which cities specialize, from a specialization by sector to a specialization by function. In fact, the Yangzi delta has also shown this transformation. The current paper investigates the mechanism behind this phenomenon in the light of endogenous technology innovation.更多还原