青岛市经济与环境协调发展研究

【作者】 秦云鹏；

【导师】 贾永刚；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自20世纪60年代开始,在全球人口规模和经济总量持续快速增长的背景下,地球上资源总量大幅下降,人类生存环境不断恶化,由经济发展引起的环境恶化问题越来越引起人们的关注。发生的两次环境革命,使得科学家对经济与环境之间关系的研究不断加深,在经济发展与保护环境方面实现更加有效的均衡目标。从现有的文献来看,国内外学者主要是从理论和实证角度两个方面对经济与环境之间的关系进行研究,而且理论研究比实证研究更加丰富和深入。改革开放30多年来,青岛市的经济社会发展取得了巨大成就,同时也不可避免地带来环境污染、生态退化等问题。当前,青岛市正在按照科学发展观的要求加快实施“环湾保护、拥湾发展”的重大战略,努力建设富强文明和谐的现代化国际城市,如何在新一轮发展周期中实现经济与环境的协调发展就成为当前重大而紧迫的问题。本人在参与《青岛市拥湾发展战略与环境耦合协调发展研究》(2008年青岛市软科学)过程中,更加深刻认识到研究青岛市经济与环境的协调发展问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本论文从以下几个方面展开研究:一是对青岛市经济与环境协调发展的现状进行分析。通过对近些年来青岛市经济和环境发展现状的描述,指出青岛市在经济方面实现了经济快速发展、产业结构升级、经济总量不断登上新台阶的局面,在环境方面,通过节能减排,发展循环经济等措施,使生态环境质量有所好转。但是,仍然存在很多问题,如工业排污严重、水产资源过度开发等,说明经济与环境的协调发展还是存在问题。二是对青岛市的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行了分析。研究发现,青岛市经济增长与环境污染水平之间不完全符合典型的EKC特征。其中,工业废水呈现非EKC特征,而工业废气与工业固废则呈明显的三次曲线特征。得出,目前青岛市仍处于工业化进程的中期阶段,正逐步向工业化后期过渡时期,工业废水治理成果显著,但工业废气与工业固体废物的转折点尚未最终到来。三是利用格兰杰因果分析和脉冲响应函数对青岛市经济发展与环境的关系进行研究,发现存在经济增长到环境污染的单向格兰杰因果关系,但这种因果关系受到时滞的影响。经济增长在滞后5期上是环境污染的格兰杰原因,经济增长造成环境污染的影响是逐步的、渐进的、长远的,经济增长对环境污染的冲击响应模式呈现出波动形态。四是对青岛市经济与环境协调的耦合度进行分析,运用耦合理论,利用青岛市经济与环境的数据,计算经济与环境耦合度的指标,发现青岛市1982-2007年26年间,经济与环境的耦合关系处于“勉强调和”—“不协调”—“勉强调和”之间变动,经济与环境的协调状况处于一种不好的状况。五是分析了青岛市经济与环境协调发展存在问题的原因,指出增长方式不合理、产业结构不合理、未能形成运转良好的循环经济体系是导致青岛市经济与环境协调发展不利的原因所在。在此基础上,有针对性的提出了改变经济增长方式、建立循环经济体系等促进经济环境协调发展的对策建议。本文在研究过程中,定性分析和定量研究相结合、理论分析和实证研究相结合,综合经济学、环境规划的相关理论展开研究。在研究青岛市经济和社会发展的现状和存在的问题时,主要采用定性分析的方法;在分析经济与环境协调发展的实证研究时,主要采用主成分分析以及格兰杰因果分析等定量研究方法进行实证研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the beginning of the 1960s, the world’s population and its total economy gained so rapid growth that the total scale of the resources dropped and the living environment of mankind worsened. More and more attentions were paid to the environmental degradations caused by the economy development. Two environmental revolutions have contributed to the further research on the relationship between the economy and environment in order to balance the economy development and environmental protection more effectively. From the existing research at home and abroad, the relationship between economy and environment are studied theoretically and empirically, of which theoretical researches dominate in the abundant and depth. Since the implementation of reform and opening up policy, Qingdao has made great achievements in economic and social development while inevitably brought about environmental pollutions, ecological degradations and so on. At present, Qingdao, in accordance with the requirements of the scientific outlook on development, is speeding up the implementation of "protection along the bay, development around the bay" strategy to build a prosperous and civilized and harmonious modern international city. How to fulfill the harmonious development of the economy and the environment is important and urgent for further development. During my participation in "the research on the coordinated development between the‘development around the bay’strategy and the environment in Qingdao”(Soft Science of Qingdao in 2008), I find the study on the harmonious development of Qingdao’s economy and environment is of theoretical and practical significance.This thesis studies the following aspects:This approach first analyzed the current coordinating development of Qingdao’s economy and environment. It pointed out that Qingdao achieved rapid economic development and industrial structure upgrading and the economic aggregate growth on the economic front and that it also improved the quality of the ecological environment on the environmental front by energy-saving and emission reduction and developing recycle economy. However, there are still a lot of problems, such as serious industrial sewage and over-exploitation of aquatic resources, demonstrating that the economic and environmental coordinating development is problematic.Then the approach analyzed Qingdao’s environmental Kuznets curve and found its economic growth and environmental pollution were not fully consistent with the typical characteristics of EKC. The industrial waste water showed non-EKC characteristics while the industrial solid wastes and industrial emissions clearly showed the characteristics of cubic curves. Thus, Qingdao, during the transition to the post-industrialization, has made great achievements in the industrial wastewater treatment. But the management of exhaust gases and industrial solid wastes has not been so successful.Third, applying Granger causality and impulse response function, this thesis analyzed the relationship between Qingdao’s economic development and environment and found that there was a one-way Granger causality of economic growth to environmental pollutions while this causality was affected by time lags. Economic growth, lagged in the fifth period, Granger causes environmental pollutions. This effect is gradual and long-term and the impulse response model shows fluctuations.Forth, coupling degrees of the coordination of Qingdao’s economy and environment were analyzed by the coupling theory. Using Qingdao’s economic and environmental data, this approach calculated the coupling degree indexes of economy and environment and found that in 1982-2007, Qingdao’s coupling relationship evolved from“unconvincing reconcile " to "incompatible", and then to " unconvincing reconcile ". Thus its economy and environment did not coordinate very well.Finally, this thesis presented the problems in the coordinating development and pointed out that the unreasonable growth mode, irrational industrial structure, failure to form a well-functioning recycle economy system contributed to these problems adversely. Based on the above analysis, reasonable and comprehensive measures are proposed to promote the coordinated development.In this paper, the study was conducted by applying qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combining theoretical analysis and empirical research and using relevant theories of both economics and environment planning. Qualitative analysis was mainly applied to analyze the current situation and existing problems of Qingdao’s economic and social development; quantitative methods, such as the principal component analysis and Granger causality analysis, were conducted to undertake the empirical analysis of economic and environmental development.更多还原