【作者】 姚禄仕；

【导师】 杨善林；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 企业管理及其信息化， 2009， 博士

【副题名】基于中国证券市场的证据

【摘要】 上市公司的可持续发展是中国证券市场得以稳步发展的基石,也是投资者、企业、政府部门及学术界关注的一个热点问题。当前,中外学者对企业可持续发展的研究主要从长期绩效、成长能力和内部治理等方面展开,而针对中国上市公司现实情况的可持续发展因素的系统分析与研究较为少见。本文基于中国证券市场的证据较系统地研究了上市公司可持续发展的有关问题,因此具有较大的理论意义,并对中国上市公司保持可持续发展具有一定的现实指导作用。本文采用规范分析和实证研究相结合的方法系统地研究了影响中国上市公司可持续发展的内外部主要因素,在此基础上构建了具有可操作性的指标体系来综合评价中国上市公司可持续发展能力。主要研究内容和创新性工作如下:1、分析了中国上市公司可持续发展的现状和内外部影响因素。通过对近10年来沪深两市所有A股上市公司财务数据的整理和分析,发现近年来中国上市公司尽管经营能力有所加强,但整体盈利能力却呈现下降趋势,偿债能力较差,成长性不高。此外,通过对可持续发展能力较强和可持续发展能力不足的两类上市公司的统计分析,将影响中国上市公司可持续发展能力的因素归纳为宏观经济环境、政策、产业结构和政府行为等外部因素,以及内部治理机制、资本结构、多元化经营、品牌战略和企业文化等内部因素。2、研究了内外部因素与上市公司可持续发展之间的关系,并构建了完整的上市公司可持续发展评价指标体系。通过对外部因素的定性分析认为,在不同的经济环境和政策背景下,政府可以通过运用不同的手段提高上市公司的可持续发展能力,但不当的政府行为将对上市公司可持续发展带来负面影响;运用对比分析、回归分析、相关分析和案例分析等方法研究了内部因素,认为上市公司要提高可持续发展能力需要加强公司内部治理、优化资本结构、避免盲目多元化,努力通过创新、品牌战略和企业文化打造上市公司核心竞争力。在上述分析的基础上,本文以“内部资源”、“能力水平”和“发展环境”为基本要素构建了上市公司可持续发展指标体系,在一定程度上拓展了上市公司可持续发展的理论研究。3、建立了模糊综合评价模型并对上市公司可持续发展能力进行定量评价。本文运用AHP法确定了指标体系各层次内部的相对权重,建立了基于“上市公司可持续发展能力综合评价指数(SDI)”的模糊综合评价模型,通过比较上市公司可持续发展能力的强弱,对上市公司可持续发展能力进行定量评价。此外,分别对随机选取的样本公司运用模型进行检验,检验结果较好的反映了样本公司的可持续发展能力,体现了该模型的实用性。通过构建上市公司可持续发展能力评价模型,能够为上市公司可持续发展能力的评价提供一个有益的方法和工具,有助于利益相关者对上市公司可持续发展能力有一个全面、正确的认识,进而帮助其做出正确的投资决策;有助于上市公司经营管理者识别影响上市公司可持续发展的内外部因素,进而提高其经营管理水平。4、总结研究结论,提出中国上市公司保持可持续发展的政策建议。本文得出的主要研究结论可以从宏观环境和企业内部因素二个方面表述。上市公司的融资、运营、投资、分配均处于整个宏观经济环境中,其可持续发展能力与宏观经济环境总体状况紧密相连;上市公司内部因素中,公司治理缺陷、资本结构失衡、投资经营盲目多元化、以及创新能力不足等是制约上市公司可持续发展的主要因素。根据上述研究结论,本文分别从政府、证券市场、上市公司等各个层面提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Listed companies’sustainable development is the cornerstone of the steady development of security market,and always a hot issue attracting great attention from investors, managers, regulators and researchers. At present, both domestic and foreign researchers has focused on this issue from the perspectives of long-term performance, growth ability, and internal governance respectively, few systematic analysis and research has yet been done on the sustainable development factors, and the reality of China listed companies. Based on the evidences from China securities market, this dissertation systematically investigates the issues related to listed companies’sustainable development, hence contributes considerably to the theoretical research, and has practical implications to sustain the healthy development of listed companies.By resorting to both normative and positive research methods, this dissertation investigates systematically the critical internal and external factors affecting listed companies’sustainable development in China, and further constructs a comprehensive, rational index system to evaluate the capacity of the sustainable development of listed companies comprehensively. The main research and innovations are as follows:Firstly, the status of sustainable development of China listed companies has been fully analyzed. On the analysis of financial data of all A-share listed companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in the recent 10 years, the study reveals that although the operating ability has been marginally strengthened, the aggregate profitability tends to be on the decrease while the solvency becomes all the worse, lacking the ability to effectively control the costs, and suffering from the low operation growth rate. Additionally, thorough statistically analysis on the two opposite types of companies with the strong and weak potential of sustainable development, the dissertation categorizes all the determinants into two types: the external factors and the internal ones, the former including the macro economic environment and policies, industry structures and government behaviors, and the latter including internal governance, capital structure, multiple operations, brand strategy and enterpriser culture, and so on.Secondly, the relationship between internal and external factors and the sustainable development of China listed companies has been deeply investigated, and an integral performance measuring system has been established to reflect listed companies’sustainable development situation. Through qualitatively evaluating the external factors, the study suggests that the government could use different methods to improve the ability of the sustainable development of listed companies in different economic environment and policy background, but inappropriate government behavior would bring negative influence to the sustainable development of listed companies. In this study comparative analysis, regression analysis, correlation analysis, and case analysis are utilized respectively to discuss the internal factors. The research finds that to strengthen the listed companies’internal governance, optimize capital structure, avoid inappropriate multi-operation, increase innovation capability, adopt appropriately band strategy and to build a healthy corporate culture are the critical factors for the sustainable development of China listed companies. Based on the above-mentioned research, this dissertation constructs a measuring system of listed companies’sustainable development from following three dimensions: internal resources, ability levels and development environments. The dissertation extends to a certain extent the theoretical research on the listed companies’sustainable development.Thirdly, the dissertation constructs a comprehensive, rational index system to evaluate the capacity of the sustainable development of listed companies comprehensively. Regarding the evaluation of sustainable development capacity, the dissertation constructs the sustainable development index system of the listed companies according to the conclusion of internal and external factors that impact on the listed companies’sustainable development, determines all internal relative weight of the index system by resorting to the AHP method, establishes the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model that combines fuzzy evaluation model and AHP model to make a quantitative evaluation on the capacity of the sustainable development of listed companies and show the ability of the sustainable development of listed companies with“Sustainable Development of listed companies comprehensive evaluation Index(SDI)”. In addition, the dissertation evaluates the randomly selected sample companies by using the model, the result shows that the model is well fitted, reflecting to a great extent the relative sustainable development capability of the experimental companies. By means of constructing an evaluating model, it provides a useful method and tools to assess the listed companies’sustainable development ability, and assists stakeholders in comprehending the ability of the listed companies to achieve development fully and correctly, and helps them to make sound investment decisions. It is also of great help to the companies manager in assisting them recognize the critical internal and external factors alike, and hence enhancing their managing ability.Finally, the dissertation summarizes the results and proposes some policy suggestions. The main research can be expressed from macro environment and enterprise internal factors. The listed companies fund raising, operating, investing, and dividends paying are all under the influence of macro environment, so their sustainable development capability are integrated with macro economic conditions. In regards to the internal factors, defects in the internal governance, imbalance of capital structure, irrational multiple operations and weak innovative ability are main contra factors to the listed companies’sustainable development. Based on these conclusions, the dissertation proposes corresponding policy suggestions from the prospects of government, securities market, and listed companies, and so on.更多还原