【作者】 吴学伟；

【导师】 任宏；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 为了适应具有中国特色的社会主义市场经济的建设,在工程造价管理领域,国家正在进行改革,逐步实现“政府宏观调控、企业自主报价、市场形成价格”的工程造价管理模式。改变从前完全依靠政府发布的定额进行造价管理的单一模式。依靠政府发布的定额计价模式,工程造价的价格确定依据主要是政府发布的定额和调价规定。在市场经济条件下,在新的造价管理模式下,工程造价的价格确定由企业依据市场情况、自身的管理水平、生产能力进行。在这种情况下,市场信息的收集和经验数据的收集、整理工作变得相对重要,否则,工程造价的确定和控制变得相对困难。在新的历史条件和新形势下,寻找比较有效和可行的、易操作的造价确定和控制的依据是目前工程造价管理的一项工作。如果没有有效的确定工程造价的造价信息,没有有效的造价确定依据,企业自主报价是一句空话,市场也无法形成合理的工程造价,工程项目建设的参与人对于工程项目的造价确定相对困难。因此,我们由过去单一的政府定价的定额计价模式,向工程量清单计价模式转变过程中,需要增加和完善工程造价信息,改变分部分项工程单价仅仅依靠政府发布的定额确定的单一模式。人类的知识积累常常建立在实践经验的总结,通过不断的实践,从中发现普遍的规律。现代自然科学的成就则更多通过科学实验,不断的收集实验数据,通过分析实验数据,获得其中存在的真理。对于工程实践,同样需要进行大量的数据分析和实验,获得设计和施工的经验数据,指导工程实践。对于工程造价管理,也需要进行大量数据的统计分析,寻找到其中的规律。工程造价的大量数据,不可能如结构受力实验一样在实验室完成。同时,每年都存在大量的工程项目建设,从长期、宏观和数据采集的角度,这些大量的工程项目数据如同实验室的实验项目,甚至过之而不及。如何搜集、整理和分析工程项目的资料和数据,以揭示其内在的规律并预测其进一步发展的趋势,已经是建筑业发展所需要。由于计算机和网络技术的广泛应用,用数理统计的方法研究、处理和分析工程项目的造价资料,通过计算机和网络技术应用,提供工程建设中项目策划、设计和施工等过程的决策所需的数量依据。如何借鉴其他行业认可并获得较好效果的指数预测系统理论与方法,通过分析工程项目建设中相对产品特征稳定、量多的住宅项目,从研究我国目前工程造价管理的特点和住宅工程造价确定的特点出发,结合目前计算机和网络技术的普及、方便和信息技术的发展,通过数理统计分析的方法,寻找适合目前工程造价管理需要、满足住宅项目建设各方需要的、能够对合理确定住宅项目工程造价提供依据和帮助的理论框架和基础方法;改进现有的工程造价指标体系,采用全新的信息技术和手段,建立和完善住宅建筑工程造价指标及指数体系和预测理论,帮助合理确定和有效控制工程造价,提高工程建设项目投资决策水平和投资效益。正是基于当前工程造价确定与控制的需要,对住宅工程造价指标和指数体系的系统研究较少且实践中需要的前提下,论文按照从实践需要到实践认识,到理论探索,再到实践应用的线索,就住宅工程造价指标和指数系统的建立与预测的实践需要、理论架构、系统分析、数据采集、标准建立、模型生成等方面进行深入细致的研究,其间综合应用建筑经济、信息社会学、系统论、统计学等的基本理论和原理,试图从上述几个方面有所突破和创新。论文研究主要分为五个部分,首先,通过对国内外相关研究进行分析与综述,确定论文的切入点,对论文涉及到的相关理论进行了分析与介绍,为论文提供了理论依据,构建合适的住宅工程造价指标和指数系统的理论框架。其次,通过分析国内外工程造价指标和指数系统建立应用情况,建立工程造价指标和指数系统的应用理论基础;第三,通过住宅工程造价的组成和影响因素的分析,确定工程造价数据采集标准,为工程造价指标和指数的建立奠定基础。在数据采集标准的基础上,确定住宅工程造价指标体系。第四,在住宅工程造价指标体系的基础上,构建工程造价指数体系,并试图分析和建立指数生成模型,具体包括两方面内容,一方面是指数类型的确定,另一方面是指数生成模型的分析和建立。最后,通过分析和应用预测技术,结合目前工程造价资料收集的情况和住宅工程造价的特点,提出适合住宅工程造价确定与控制所需预测技术和方法,建立指标和指数预测模型,对工程造价指标和指数进行预测并建立计算机处理流程框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 For adoption China-charactered social marketing construction, reform in construction cost management is in progress, pursuing construction cost management new pattern of marketing price based on enterprise’s quotation under governmental macro control, transferring from the way of construction cost price based on ration issued by government. With new pattern of construction cost management, construction price determined by enterprise’s management level, throughput and marketing condition, it is important of collecting and packing up the marketing information and cost datum. Otherwise, it is difficult to construction cost budget and control.It is important task to seek efficient, available and operational way for construction cost budget and control. Without efficacious construction cost information and construction pricing way, it is no way for enterprise quotation and reasonable marketing price coming into being. It is required to enhance and perfect construction cost information, and change the way of subentry price based on ration issued by government, with construction cost price based on from ration issued by government to BQ mode.Knowledge accumulation based on practice, universal rule is achieved by practice. Success in modern natural science based on experiment, the truth is achieved, with analyzing and collecting experimental datum. In project practice, it is also required to dealing with scientific experiment and analyzing datum for instructing project practice with experiential datum. In construction cost management, it is required to analyze statistical datum for principia. In construction cost management, it is impossible to experiment in Lab as structure experiment. At the same time, many projects are completed every year, the cost datum of which is same as the datum in Lab. It is necessary for construction industry development to collect and analyze the completed project cost datum, with discovering rules and forecasting the evolution trend. With application of computer and network, datum decision-making in scheme, design and construction are achieved by dealing with project cost information with statistical way.Making reference to the theory and way of index forecasting successfully applied in many industry, focusing on many residential project with character stabilization, based on research in characteristic of construction cost management and residential project cost, the paper looks for the theory frame and basic way of budget and control by statistical way, computer and network, which is suit for construction cost management and residential project participator. In order to more exactly; more accurately budget and control, improving on system of project cost index, decision-making level and investment benefit, the theory of index and index forecasting system in residential cost is found and perfected by brand-new information technology.With few system research on residential construction cost index, in order to budget and control construction cost, this thesis researches residential construction cost index establishing, system analysis, data collection, standards and model so on, according to the way of theory from and applied in practice, meantime, integrated applied the basic theory and principle of construction economics, information sociology, system theory, statistics.This thesis consists five parts. Firstly, fixing on the target basing on the research, this thesis analyses and introduces the base concerning theory and establishes theory frame of residential construction cost index.Secondly, this paper sets up applied theory base of residential construction cost index, basing on the analysis of residential construction cost index applied in China and Foreign country.Thirdly, analyzing the factor and composition of residential construction cost, this thesis sets up the standard of construction cost date collection and the system of residential construction cost index basing on the standard of construction cost date collection.Fourthly, basing on the system of residential construction cost index, this thesis tries to analyses and establishes residential construction cost index model,including index type and index model analysis.Finally, by applied forecasting technology, integrated the situation of construction cost collection and the character of residential construction, this thesis puts forward the forecasting method and technique adaptation for residential construction cost budget and control, meanwhile, establishing the forecasting model of residential construction cost index and the computer progress flow frame.更多还原