由乱至治

【作者】 贺水金；

【导师】 杜恂诚；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【副题名】1927-1952年中国金融与财政问题研究

【摘要】 1927年是南京政府成立之年,1952年是自抗战爆发以来一直困扰中国长达15年之久的通货膨胀问题得到彻底治理的年份。本文以时间为经,以1927—1952年中国发生的重大金融事件为纬,对货币制度、货币改革、国家垄断金融体系的建立、国际资本流动、汇率变动、通货膨胀与治理,通货膨胀条件下金融业运行等中国近现代宏观金融领域的诸方面进行了宽视野、多角度地分析和研究,并对与金融息息相关的南京政府财政收支结构、特点、弥补赤字方式,战时、战后财政与通货膨胀关系等也进行了深入地研究,以企能对本时段中国财政状况与金融嬗变有一个整体地把握和较宏观地认识。本文紧紧抓住1927—1952年中国金融领域存在的“乱”、“治”关系,以此为主线,全面剖析了两个互为起讫点的“由乱而治”的过程。第一个“由乱至治”,是指银本位制时代近代中国紊乱的货币制度和货币体系,经过废两改元、法币政策两次货币改革,整顿了紊乱的币制,确立了货币本位,统一了铸币权和发行权,货币形态也与世界接轨,成为高度符号化的纸币,顺应了国际金融体制由贵金属本位制转向不兑现纸币制的大趋势。法币政策是近代中国货币体系由“乱”而“治”的终点。但又成为第二个层面“乱”的始点。第二个“由乱至治”,是指中国通货膨胀发生、发展直至演绎为经典恶性通货膨胀,最后由中华人民共和国成功治理的过程。建国初期,解放全中国及百废待兴,导致人民币财政性发行和生产性发行双向推进,通货膨胀严重,物价波动剧烈。政府采取临时应急与长效治理相结合,经济手段、行政干预双管渠下,金融、财政政策同时跟进,标本兼治的方略,全力平抑物价,至1952年根治了持续达15年之久的通货膨胀顽症,为人民生活安定和国民经济发展营造出一个良好的社会环境。中国物价自此保持了30余年的稳定,成为凸显于战后通胀年代保持价格稳定的少数几个“绿洲”之一。中国货币金融由此实现了近代历史上第二次“由乱至治”。全文共分五编十四章。每编就是一个专题,即南京政府财政金融合一、货币改革、国际资本流动与汇率变动、通货膨胀及中华人民共和国成立初期成功治理通货膨胀等五部分。其中很多专题都是目前学术界无人或少有人研究的,如国际资本流动、汇率变动、货币紊乱特征与中国经济、社会民生关系、通货膨胀条件下的金融业、中、德两国经典恶性通货膨胀比较研究、中华人民共和国成立初期成功治理通货膨胀等;有些虽有学者论及,但通过挖掘新资料和运用新方法论提出新的看法,如南京政府中央银行反通货膨胀政策及其绩效评析;有些大家所熟知的问题则尽量从研究路径和框架上形成自己的特色,如第一编财政金融合一,传统的研究即谈国民党政府建立国家垄断金融体系,我则以“财政金融合一”为题,分别从财政和金融两方面对“合一”的原因、过程进行分析,最后对财政金融合一利弊进行评析;废两改元历来少有人关注,对废两改元的准备过程及实施情况,一般的论著都语焉不详,钱庄业、银行业、商界以及其他社会各界在整个过程中的反映和态度如何,当时理论界还提出了哪些可供选择的方案,等等,更少有提及。我通过仔细爬梳档案资料、《银行周报》对此事的全面报道、时人评析等,勾勒出废两改元实施的完整轮廓,并据此对废两改元的成功原因和历史影响作出客观、公正的评价;法币改革一直是民国经济史和金融史研究的热点,观点众说纷纭。对此,本文在充分注重他人研究成果的基础上,从第一手资料入手,拓宽视野,将之置于国内外经济大背景中予以考察和分析,并从国际货币制度改革和演变趋势中来评价它的历史作用;对法币改革与通货膨胀的关系及对经济的影响则用数据来说话,得出新的结论。但强调货币改革是一项系统工程,必须在社会稳定的前提下,有相应的基础条件和约束机制配套实施,才能避免走向改革预期目的的反面。本文还形成了以下一些新结论和新观点:1,总结归纳出废两改元前中国币制紊乱的五大特征:本位不明,主辅币不清;传统性货币与近代性货币并存;中央、地方政府发行的货币与非官方发行的货币并存;本国货币与外国货币并存;货币流通的区域性与区域内货币流通的多样性并存;以“熵”理论来分析币制紊乱对中国经济造成的阻碍作用;通过对1840—1935年近100年银铜比价变动长期趋势的考察,得出银价、铜价、物价大幅度变动,使老百姓深受双重通货膨胀之害的结论。2,汇率研究上,在学术界首次提出银本位制是国际金融史上最早、最纯粹的浮动汇率制。发现中国汇率在1931年以前表现为金银比价变动,1931年后演变为银与金、银与各国纸币兑换率双重汇率,二者走势并不完全趋同;提炼出第一次世界大战时期和20世纪30年代两次银贵现象,从银价、国外物价、白银国际购买力及银贵对中国经济的影响等多方面,对两次银贵进行综合比较,发现第一次世界大战时期的银贵是名“贵”而实“贱”,迎来了中国经济发展的第一个高峰;20世纪30年代是金贵银贵纸贱,对中国经济的影响是灾难性的。3,运用多种分析方法深入研究了国际资本流动、汇率变动对中国金融、经济和进出口贸易的影响,结论是汇率贬值,白银内流,国内金融呈温和通货膨胀,工商繁荣,经济发展,有利于出口,但不利于进口设备,也增加了中国偿还外债的成本;汇率升值,白银外流,物价下跌,通货紧缩,经济衰退,白银国际购买力提高,有助于减轻进口设备成本,有利于偿还外债,刺激进口,抑制出口,关税收入减少。4,全面比较和分析了中德两国恶性通货膨胀的特征、原因以及两国反通货膨胀政策所取得的成功经验和失败教训,结论是要战胜恶性通货膨胀,首先要政治稳定;其次要实现预算平衡;第三,要有独立的中央银行,坚决执行紧缩政策,停止发行;第四,“外部锚”的作用也不可小视,这个“锚”,可以是黄金,也可以是国际上某种国际强势货币;第五,慎改货币名称。5,通过大量研读档案资料及主持财经工作当时人的各类文本,勾勒出建国初期通货膨胀的全景图,并对通货膨胀演进的不同阶段、发生的原因、治理的主要举措等展开全面分析,认为新中国在很短的时间内根治长达15年之久的通货膨胀顽症,创造了经济奇迹。最后的结论是:政治稳定是成功治理通货膨胀的重要前提;治本之策是努力平衡财政收支,紧把印钞机闸门;治理通货膨胀必须财政、经济、货币政策配套运用,再辅之于适当的市场管制与行政干预,形成“合力共振”,收到综合治理之效。更多还原

【Abstract】 1927 was the year when Nanjing Government established; 1952 was year when the problem of inflation, which had puzzled China for 15 years since the Sino-Japanese War broke out, was solved thoroughly.The dissertation is expounded on by the time and takes the significant financial events from 1927 to 1952 as the scope. The dissertation analyzes and researches with wide vision and multiple perspectives on various issues in modern China’s macro-financial sectors such as currency system, currency reform, the establishment of the state’s monopoly financial system, international capital movement, fluctuations in exchange rate, inflation and the way to bring it under control and the running of financial industry under inflation. The dissertation also has an in-depth study on the structure of Nanjing Government’s financial revenue and expenditure, its characteristics, the way to make up for deficit and the relationship among the finance in times of war, the post-war finance and inflation which are closely linked with finance, in order to grasp China‘s financial position and financial evolution of this time in its entirety and understand it in a wide scope.The dissertation firmly grasps the "chaos", "governance" in China’s finance of 1927-1952, takes it as the main line and analyzes comprehensively the process between the two complementary points of "chaos" and "governance". The first "from chaos to governance" refers to modern China’s disorganized monetary system and monetary setup of silver-based era. After the two monetary policy reforms, i.e.“abolishing Liang and changing it into Yuan”and Standard Currency, modern China straightened out the disorder of the currency system, established a monetary standard and unified coinage and distribution rights. With the form of monetary being integrated with the world, it became a highly symbolized note and complied with the general trend of international financial system changing from valuable metal-based system to no-encashment note system. Standard Currency is the end-point of“from chaos to governance”of modern China’s monetary system, and also the starting point of the second level of "chaos" as well.The second“from chaos to governance”refers to the process in which China’s inflation occurred, developed, changed into classic hyperinflation and was successful treated by the People’s Republic of China in the end. Just after the Liberation, the task of rebuilding China led to the two-way advancement of financial and productive issuance of RMB, serious inflation and tempestuously fluctuant prices. The government took the strategy of temporary treatment combined with long-term governance, economic and administrative intervention promoting simultaneously, financial policy followed up with fiscal policy, addressing both the symptoms and root causes, to stabilize prices with might and main. In 1952, the Government brought the stubborn inflation lasting for over 15 years under permanent control, thus creating a good social environment for people’s lives and economic development. Since then, China maintained stable prices for more than 30 years, and she was one of the few "Oasis" maintaining stable prices and was prominent in the post-war era of inflation. Therefore, China’s monetary and finance realized the second "from chaos to governance" in modern history.The dissertation consists of 14 chapters that are divided into five sections. Each section is a special subject, i.e. the fiscal and financial unification of Nanjing Government, currency reforms, international capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations, inflation and successfully bringing inflation under control just after the People’s Republic of China was founded. Many of these subjects are not being researched or hardly being researched at present, such as international capital flows, exchange rate fluctuations, the characteristics of monetary disorder and the financial industry under the circumstances of China’s economy, social relations, people’s livelihood and inflation, the comparative study of China’s and German classic hyperinflation, and successfully bringing inflation under control just after the People’s Republic of China was founded. Although some scholars have discussed some of these subjects, I put forward new views by using new data and new methodology, such as anti-inflationary policy of Nanjing Government’s Central Bank and the analysis of its performance. For the well-known issues, I try to create my own characteristics in terms of methods and structures. For example, in the first section, i.e. the fiscal and financial unification, traditional researches discuss the establishment of a national monopolistic financial system by Kuomintang Government. This dissertation names it "financial and monetary unity"; discusses the reasons and process of unification from fiscal and financial points; comments on the advantages and disadvantages of the fiscal and financial unification. As for“abolishing Liang and changing it into Yuan”, few people have always been concerned about it; most treatises do not elaborate on its preparation and implementation, not to mention others like the reflections and attitudes of unincorporated banks, banking, business and other communities to“abolishing Liang and changing it into Yuan”and the options put forward by the specialists at that time.Through carefully reading and straightening out dossiers, comprehensive reports on“abolishing Liang and changing it into Yuan”in Bank Weekly and the comments at that time,the dissertation outlines the complete implementation of“abolishing Liang and changing it into Yuan”, and accordingly makes objective and fair assessment on the causes for its success and its impact in history. Currency Reform has always been the hot spot in the research of modern economy history and finance history, with divergent views. In this regard, on the basis of laying stress on others’research results, the dissertation starts with first-hand information, expands horizon, places the Currency Reform in the background of home and abroad to study and analyze, and evaluates its historical role from the point of international monetary system and the trend of evolution. As for the relationship between Currency Reform and inflation and the impact on economy by Currency Reform, the dissertation uses data to draw new conclusions. The dissertation emphasizes that monetary reform is a systematic project; it should be carried out under the prerequisite of social stability, on the basis of corresponding conditions and constraint mechanism in order to avoid deviating from the purpose of reform.The dissertation also forms a number of new conclusions or new views:1. It summarizes five characteristics of China’s disordered currency system before “abolishing Liang and changing it into Yuan”, i.e. the standard currency is unclear, and the standard currency and accessorial currency are unclear; traditional currency co-exists with modern currency in modern times; the central and local government-issued currencies co-exist with currencies issued by non-government; national currency co-exists with foreign currencies; the regionalization in currency circulation co-exists with diversity of regional currency in circulation. It applies "entropy" theory to analyze the impediment to China’s economy caused by currency chaos and by studying the long-term trend of silver-copper rate change in nearly 100 years of 1840-1935, it comes to the conclusion that significant change of silver, copper and commodity prices made people suffer from dual-inflation.2. As for the research of exchange, the dissertation advances for the first time that silver-based system was the earliest and the most absolute floating exchange rate system in the history of international finance; China’s exchange rate behaved as the change of the ratio between gold and silver before 1931, but after 1931, it changed into a dual exchange rate of the ratio between gold and silver and the ratio between silver and foreign notes which had not fully convergent movements; it extracts the two valuable silvers during the First World War and 1930s, makes comprehensive comparisons from the aspects of silver price, prices of foreign commodities, the international purchasing power of silver and the impact on China’s economy made the valuable silvers, and finds that the so-called valuable silver during the First World War is“valuable”on the surface, in fact it’s”cheap”, it ushers the first peak in the development of China’s economy, and the so-called valuable silver is in fact valuable gold, valuable silver and valuable notes, its impact on China’s economy is disastrous.3. The dissertation uses a variety of analytical methods to study in-depth the international capital flows, the impact on China’s finance, economy, and import and export trade made by exchange rate movements; comes to a conclusion that the depreciation of exchange rate, silver influx, a moderate inflation in domestic finance, prosperity of industry and commerce, the development of economy are propitious to exports, but not propitious to import equipments, and also increase the cost of repaying foreign debts for China; the appreciation of exchange rate, the outflow of silver, the drop in prices, deflation, recession, the advance of silver’s international purchasing power, help to reduce the cost of imported equipments and repay foreign debts, but they stimulate imports, curb exports and decrease the tariff revenue.4. The dissertation compares and analyzes comprehensively the characteristics and reasons of China’s and German hyperinflation, as well as the successful experience and lessons of failure of anti-inflationary policies of the two countries, then concludes that in order to overcome hyper-inflation, it’s important, firstly, to maintain stability in politics; secondly, to achieve a balanced budget; thirdly, to set up an independent central bank, implement tight monetary policy with a firm hand and stop issuing; Fourthly, not to ignore the role of "external anchor", which can be gold or a strong international currency; Fifthly, to carefully change the name of currency.5. By reading a large number of archival materials and various documents written by those who presided over financial work at that time, the dissertation outlines the inflation just after the Liberation; it analyzes comprehensively different stages of inflation, the causes of it and major measures; it deems that New China brought the chronic problem of inflation under permanent control in a very short time of 15 years, creating an economic miracle. The dissertation sums up that political stability is an important prerequisite for bringing inflation under control; the fundamental solution to bringing inflation under control is trying to balance revenue and expenditure and restricting the banknote issuance; in order to bring inflation under control, we should use financial policies together with economic and monetary policies, and then combined with proper market control and administrative intervention, thus forming a resultant force and receiving the effect of comprehensive management.更多还原