农产品质量安全综合评价理论与方法研究

【作者】 张东玲；

【导师】 高齐圣；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 系统理论， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文以农产品安全为研究对象,应用系统综合评价理论和方法,建立农产品安全评价指标体系,分析基于质量损失的关键质量链,建立农产品安全风险评估和预警模型。论文研究紧密围绕农产品的质量特点,遵循着定性分析与定量分析相结合的原则,涉及农产品感官质量评估、质量链分析和农产品安全风险评价,并结合良好农业规范(Good Agriculture Practice,GAP)在山东蔬菜出口备案基地的应用进行了实证研究。首先给出农产品安全管理体系理论的背景,介绍了相关的基本概念,提出利用系统理论研究农产品安全系统评价的构想。从系统的含义和特点入手,阐明系统综合评价的基本概念,讨论了评价尺度的分类,介绍了系统综合评价的基本理论和方法,指出面向复杂系统的综合评价方法及分类,并提出面向复杂系统的评价方法在农产品质量安全评价中的应用思路。从系统理论的角度,在介绍评价指标体系的基本概念、建立的程序、指标筛选的方法和指标标准化的基础上,讨论了评价指标权重确定的方法。以良好农业规范(GAP)在我国蔬菜种植基地中的应用为例,构建了农产品安全评价指标体系,应用层次分析法方法确定了各个指标的权重。针对良好农业规范(GAP)在蔬菜种植基地实施中,专家的评价信息仅做简单汇总而没有进行充分利用和分析,语言评价信息易损失和扭曲、限于平面数据集结等问题,以山东省出口备案蔬菜种植基地评价为例进行了实证研究。提出了一种基于语言信息和面板数据的综合评价方法,对专家的评价信息分别进行多指标和时序加权集结,得到综合评价结果,并对结果进行分析,充分利用评价信息,用以指导基地在GAP实施中的改进。在传统过程能力分析的基础上,从食品安全和食物链的角度,将农产品种植和加工视为一个过程网络,提出了基于过程网络结构的农产品质量链控制的思路和方法。应用网络规划技术,结合质量损失函数的基本原理,针对农产品食品链网络过程能力评价问题进行了探讨,给出了基于质量损失的关键质量链分析评价方法。以菠菜产品的种植加工进行了实例分析。就农产品安全风险评估和预警问题,提出了一种基于多有序分类离散选择模型的评估分析方法。在建立农产品安全风险评估指标体系的基础上,采用语言信息处理方法,将呈现出面板数据特征的评价信息进行有效集结。通过因子分析法提取农产品安全风险评估的潜在变量,建立有序多分类离散选择模型,给出了风险判别分析计算步骤。结合山东省出口蔬菜备案基地评价数据进行了实证研究。本文是在系统理论和方法指导下,利用综合评价技术和计量经济模型对农产品质量安全与风险进行评价和分析,是系统综合评价方法在农产品安全中的具体应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the agricultural food safety problems,applying the systematic evaluation theory and measures,an agricultural food safety evaluation index system,the critical quality chain analysis based on quality loss and agricultural food safety risk assessment and early-warning model are proposed in this paper.The research is close centering on the characteristics of agricultural food quality,following the principle of the quantitative with qualitative analysis methods.These studies involve the sensory quality evaluation,quality chain analysis and agricultural food safety risk assessment,and they are illustrated by the application of good agriculture practice(GAP) in export spinach sites which are put on records in Shandong province.The paper first gives the research background of the agricultural food safety,reviews the basic concepts,and then presents the idea for the agricultural food safety evaluation research by systematic theory.Beginning with the introduction of the significations and characters related to the system,the concepts of synthetically evaluation are classified,the sort of evaluation scale is discussed,the basic approach the measure toward complex system is presented,and the application idea of the above method is carried out.Based on the introduction of index system’s concepts,procedure,filter method and index standardization from the viewpoints of systematic theory,the approaches to determine the weights of evaluation indexes are discussed.For the example of the application of good agriculture practice(GAP) in vegetable sites in China,the evaluation index system is proposed and the weights of the indexes are determined with AHP method.In order to solve the loss and distortion within the limit of the planar linguistic evaluation information in the application of Good agriculture practice(GAP) on the vegetable sites,this research is illustrated by an example relevant to the agricultural food safety evaluation on six export spinach sites which are put on records in Shandong province.A multi-attribute approach based on panel data and linguistic information is proposed,an agricultural product safety evaluation index system is put forward according GAP standard,the statistical evaluation data is gathered form GAP auditors,and the various period evaluation results are aggregated by multi-criteria and time weights to obtain the final evaluation values.Further,improvement of sites can be achieved on the basis of sufficient analysis.On the basis of process capability analysis in traditional way,the agricultural food chain is regarded as one process network,using the basic theory of PERT/CPM, combining the elements of quality loss function,an approach of the critical quality chain analysis and evaluation based on quality loss is proposed.Finally an example about spinach product is given.For the issues of the agricultural food quality risk evaluation and early-warning management,an analysis approach based on multi-classification discrete choice model is proposed.On the basis of building an agricultural food safety risk evaluation index system,applying the linguistic information processing method,the panel valuation data is aggregated to obtain the integrated evaluation values.The potential variables are extracted by factor analysis method,an ordered logistic model is put forward,and the calculation analysis steps are given.This research is illustrated by an example of export vegetable sites which are put on records in Shandong province.This work analyzes the agricultural food quality safety and risk based on synthetically evaluation approaches and econometric methods under the guidance of systematic theory,which is a practical application in agricultural food safety.更多还原