【作者】 郝成；

【导师】 李学伟；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 城市轨道交通项目具有准公共产品的属性,是国民经济的重要基础设施,对解决大城市交通拥堵和实现可持续发展具有重要意义。城市轨道交通项目经济效益和社会效益均比较明显,效益分析对项目科学决策具有关键影响。目前,城市轨道交通项目效益分析主要包括财务效益评价、国民经济效益评价和社会评价三种理论方法,其理论基础和评价对象各不相同,在不同的历史阶段均发挥了积极作用,但这些方法未对各类效益评价指标进行系统整合,在决策过程中需要将评价结果与各自指标体系分别进行对比分析,受人为因素的影响较大。本文拟以城市轨道交通项目为研究对象,以“效益”为主线,着重研究项目效益形成机制、效益分析指标体系和基于现代数学方法对效益数据开展定量权重研究,为综合分析项目效益水平探索一种新思路。首先,本文对国内外城市轨道交通行业现状和我国城市轨道交通行业发展趋势进行了梳理研究,提出了科学分析项目效益的必要性和紧迫性,为后续研究奠定基础(第2章)。截至2006年底,我国城市轨道交通建成线路共计630公里。在对宏观经济、产业政策、法律法规等方面进行系统梳理的基础上,综合考虑我国城镇化趋势加快、公交优先战略的实施、城市可持续发展的要求等多种因素影响,预测到2020年我国城市轨道交通线路有可能达到2000-2500公里的规模。其次,本文对城市轨道交通项目的效益形成机制和表现形式进行了研究(第3章)。城市轨道交通项目具有准公共产品、外部效应、规模经济等特性,属于准经营性的城市基础设施,其效益覆盖范围非常广泛,具体表现在对资源的节约、促进经济增长、减轻地面公交系统投资压力、带动沿线不动产增值、节约乘客出行时间、提高劳动生产率、节约能源消耗和改善城市污染状况等方面。为便于分析研究,本文将城市轨道交通项目的效益分为经济效益和社会效益两大类。再次,本文针对城市轨道交通项目这一特定对象系统,借鉴项目综合评价的基本原理和法则,建立了从不同角度、不同层次和不同范围反映城市轨道交通项目技术、经济、社会等各方面效果的一系列指标集合,形成城市轨道交通项目效益分析综合指标体系(第4章)。该指标体系具有层次性、计量性和综合性,为运用粗糙集分析其效益水平提供了必要前提。随后,本文依据城市轨道交通项目效益形成机制,以效益分析综合指标体系为基础,提出基于粗糙集的综合效益多元权重分析模型(第5章)。通过对城市轨道交通项目的效益因素进行知识表达,形成效益信息决策表,运用粗糙集理论建立效益多元组合权重确定模型,并针对8条城市轨道交通项目开展实证分析。实证研究结果表明,基于粗糙集的项目效益多元组合权重确定方法相对于传统的单因素指标分析方法具有一定优势,更加全面科学。最后,本文开展了基于效益分析的城市轨道交通项目资金筹措的应用研究(第6章),系统总结了城市轨道交通项目资金筹措的进展和实践,揭示了项目效益分析结果和资金筹措方案之间的关系,为合理设计资金筹措方案提供了一种可行的指导方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Having quasi-public characters,urban rail transit projects are main basic infrastructure of national economy and are very important to solve traffic jam in cities and to realize sustainable development.Urban rail transit projects have prominent both social and economical benefit,and benefit analysis has key effect on the scientific decision making of these projects.For now,financial appraisal,national economic appraisal and social appraisal are the main methods on the benefits evaluation of urban rail transit projects,which have different theoretic basises,objects and effects.However,as one-factor index method, they can not integrate the economic benefits and social benefits and are prone to be affected by decision-makers.As an important basic facility in national economy,urban rail transit projects are effective way to solve the transit congestion and to achieve sustainable development in big cities.Since these projects have quasi-public characters with both considerable economic and social benefit,the scientific benefit analysis have fundamental significance to the urban rail transit projects.This dissertation takes urban rail transit projects as research object,and takes benefit as masterstroke to focus on benefit forming mechanism,benefit analysis index system and authority weight of benefit datas.Therefore,a new thought of analysis on project benefit could be provided.To research problems of urban rail transit projects benefit,the status quo and future tendency of urban rail transit industry should be analyzed(Chapt 2).By the end of year 2006,the number of built urban rail transit line was 630 kilometers.Basing on the systematic analysis of macroeconomic,industry policy and legal system,and taking the speed up tendency of urbanization and the public transport priority strategy,the dissertation expects the number to be 2000-2500 kilometers by year 2020.Based on the analysis on content pointed above,this dissertation researched the souce mechanism and explicit charactors(Chapt 3).Urban rail transit projects are quasi-public products;it has external and scale economic characters;its benefits are very extensive such as saving energy,resource and passengers’ time,improving economy,working rate and real estate value,and reducing investment pressure on ground public transportation and city pollution.And it can be mainly divided into economic benefits and social benefits.Using the basic principle and method of project comprehensive evaluation,and taking the urban rail transit project as a particular research target category,the dissertation has set up a series of index system to reflect the technological,economical, social,and other kinds of benefits from multi-angles,multi-levels and a broad scope, hence to form a overall index system of benefit analysis for urban rail transit project (Chapt 4).Having described the urban rail transit project in detail from different levels and angles,the index system is hierarchical,quantitative and comprehensive.The benefit analysises of urban rail transit project existing are mostly focusing on individual benefit factor.This dissertation basing on urban rail transit project source mechanism,and the overall index system of benefit analysis for urban rail transit project, provided the model of urban rail transit project benefit analysis basing on rough set(Chapt 5).Through knowledge expression of urban rail transit project benefit factors, the information decision table of urban rail transit project benefit could be formed. Hence,the authority weights confirming model basing on rough set could be established. In addition,the demonstration analysis aiming at 8 urban rail transit projects which have been started working recently is provided.The results of demonstration indicate that the benefit analysis basing on rough set is having more advantages than traditional individual factor index analysis.Taking the multidimensional combination weight analysis basing on rough set,this dissertation explains the financing methods selection of urban rail transit project basing on benefit analysis(Chapt 6).The practices,types and characters of urban rail transit projects financing are summarized,posting the relationship between results of analysis on benefit weights and financing schemes selecting.Therefore,a feasible evaluation means for financing design could be provided.更多还原