【作者】 张红军；

【导师】 姜建清；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 博士

【副题名】理论及基于中国市场的实证

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,随着发展中国家金融自由化浪潮的兴起,金融全球化进程不断提速。作为金融全球化的一个重要组成,银行国际化成为一股不可阻挡的潮流,席卷世界各地。自1980年以来,中国银行业对外开放经历了从局部地区到全国范围、从外币业务到本币业务、从外国居民到本国居民的发展历程,在循序渐进中稳步推进。外资银行机构网络不断扩大,业务规模迅速增加,外资银行已经成为中国银行业的重要组成部分。在这样一种背景下,研究外资银行进入与监管问题无疑具有重要的现实意义和理论意义。其现实意义在于:一方面,东道国银行业及监管部门需要分析外资银行的进入动机、行为及效应等相关问题,制定相应的应对策略及监管措施;另一方面,东道国本土银行业也可以学习、借鉴跨国银行的海外经营经验,更好地实现“走出去”战略。其理论意义在于:以一个市场机会最大、国际银行业最为关注的世界上最大的新兴市场国家、最大的发展中国家为案例,研究外资银行进入及监管问题,无疑是对跨国银行理论及转型经济学一项重大贡献。基于此,本文从理论和实证两个层面对这一问题展开了的论述。理论研究主要是基于效用函数理论、实物期权理论、博弈论以及信息经济学等相关理论构建模型探析外资银行进入及监管等问题的内在机理,实证研究主要基于中国市场的视角探析外资银行的进入及监管问题,通过理论剖析及实证检验,试图对外资银行进入这一波澜壮阔的金融全球化问题展开一系列前瞻性的探索。本文研究的主线是:首先综述现有关于外资银行进入相关问题的研究成果,指出现有研究可能存在的缺陷及其进一步研究的方向;其次,从理论和实证两个视角展开对外资银行进入动因、进入行为、进入效应以及进入监管等问题的研究;最后,总结全文并分析本文研究的不足并提出未来研究的方向。基于这一思路,本文的研究工作主要分为以下三大部分:第一、第二章是论文的第一部分:分析了本文的研究背景、意义及研究的主要目标、方法、论文的框架结构并对现有文献加以综述。第三章至第六章是本文的主体部分。这一部分主要是基于东道国视角,从理论和实证两个方面展开对外资银行进入及监管问题的研究。第三章至第五章基于东道国视角,分析了外资银行的进入动因、外资银行的进入行为以及外资银行进入效应。第六章基于上述三章的分析,研究了东道国对外资银行进入的监管问题。第三章研究外资银行进入动因。理论部分:构建效用函数模型解释外资银行进入的动因;实证部分:通过全球数据及中国市场的数据,检验了外资银行进入的动因。第四章研究外资银行的进入行为。理论部分:主要是构建了外资银行进入时机选择模型以及外资银行进入的模式选择模型;实证部分:在上一章动因分析的基础之上,基于中国市场的相关数据,研究了外资银行的进入行为及其背后的不同动因。首先分析了外资银行进入时机选择及影响因素;接着分析了外资银行进入区位选择及其影响因素,最后分析了外资银行进入模式选择及其影响因素。第五章研究外资银行的进入效应。理论部分:基于上一章外资银行不同的进入模式,通过模型构建分析了新设进入和并购进入两种不同外资银行进入模式对东道国银行业的效应影响;实证部分:检验了新设进入外资银行对中国银行业的各种综合效率的影响。第六章研究外资银行的进入监管。在前三章的基础上,首先分析了东道国对外资银行进入监管的现实意义。理论部分:探析了东道国对外资银行进入监管的理论基础,并构建了外资银行进入监管的道德风险模型、信号博弈模型以及适度监管模型;经验部分:首先分析外资银行进入的国际监管经验及其部分国家的监管案例,最后剖析中国对外资银行进入监管的经验及其存在的不足,并提出相应的改进措施。第七章是本文的第三部分:总结全文并展望。综述论文的主要工作及研究得到的主要结论并提出了相关政策建议,最后指出了文的不足及进一步研究的方向。在本文的主要工作中,创新点主要体现在以下几个方面:1、基于效用理论,构建了外资银行进入选择的微观效用函数模型。本文通过一个外资银行进入选择效用模型的构建分析了外资银行进入选择的微观动机,这一微观理论与银行业跨国经营的OLI理论以及东道国金融自由化理论结合,共同构建了外资银行进入动机的理论基础。在理论的基础上,本文还基于多期面板数据技术实证检验了外资银行进入中国市场的动因。2、基于实物期权理论,构建了外资银行进入的时机选择模型。本文首次基于实物期权模型从理论上探析了外资银行进入的最优时机选择问题。并在此基础上,实证检验了外资银行进入中国市场的时机选择及其影响因素。3、利用外资银行的相关数据实证检验了外资银行进入中国市场的模式选择及其影响因素。本文首次利用有序结果的Logistic回归模型实证检验了外资银行进入中国市场的不同模式选择的影响因素。4、构建了外资银行的进入效应模型。本文对微观银行理论中经典的K-M模型进行了延伸和拓展,利用拓展的K-M模型研究了外资银行以不同模式进入发展中国家后对东道国银行业产生的效应。本文的部分相关研究成果已经在国内权威或核心刊物上正式发表,包括《金融研究》(2007年第9期)、《上海管理科学》(2008年第2期)等。另外,本文其他部分的研究成果正处于终审阶段(如《国际金融研究》、《经济学季刊》、《上海交通大学学报(自然版)》)、《管理评论》)、或修改拟投稿阶段。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the 1980s, the global financial process accelerates incessantly, with the financial freedom of the developing countries. As an important part, banking internationalization becomes a non-stopping tide, sweeps all places of the world. Since the 1980, the Chinese banking open-policy experiences from local district to the all places of the country, from foreign currency business to RMB business, from foreign residents to Chinese residents. The open of Chinese banking has been pushed smoothly, and gradually. The organizations of foreign banks expand uninterruptedly, and the business sizes of foreign banks increase rapidly. Foreign banks have been the important part of Chinese banking. In this realistic background, researching the problem of foreign bank entry and regulation has very important realistic and theoretic meaning.The realistic meaning is that ,on the one hand ,the banking and regulation authority of host country should analyse the reasons, behaviours and effects of foreign bank entry, and eastablish corresponding strategies and regulational measures,on the other hand, the banking of host country may learn the overseas business exeriences of international banks, and realize the“going abroad”strategy . The theoretic meaning is that researching the foreign bank entry and regulation with the most market chance, the international banks most attention, and the most emerging market county and developing country, is a great contribution to international banking theory and transitional economy.So, the dissertation studies this problem from the theoretical and empirical angles. The keystone of theoretical study sets up models to analyse the inherent-mechanism of foreign bank entry and regulation based on utility function theory, real option theory, game theory and information economy. The keystone of empirical study analyses the foreign bank entry and regulation based on Chinese market. All the study wants to open out a series of explorations of the problems about foreign bank entry.The dissertation first summarizes the research results about the problems of foreign bank entry and regulation, points out the limitations of existing literatures, and the next research aspects. Then, the dissertation studies the reasons of foreign bank entry, the behaviors of foreign bank entry, the effects of foreign bank entry and the regulation of foreign bank entry from the theoretical and empirical angles. At last, the author summarizes the dissertation, points out the lack of the dissertation and puts forward the next research aspects. Based on this way, the dissertation comprises the following three parts: Chapter 1 to Chapter 2 is the first part of the dissertation. This part points out the background, the meanings, the mostly aim, the methods and the structure of the dissertation, then summarizes the existing literatures.Chapter 3 to Chapter 6 is the main part of the dissertation. Base on host country, this part studies the problems of foreign bank entry and regulation from the theoretical and empirical angles. The Chapter 3 to Chapter 5 analyses the reasons, behaviors and the effects of foreign bank entry, and the Chapter 6 studies the regulation of host country to foreign bank entry based on Chapter 3 to Chapter 5.Chapter 3: studying the reasons of foreign bank entry. The theoretical part is to establish model to explain the reasons of foreign bank entry; and the empirical part is to test the reasons of foreign bank entry with global data and Chinese data.Chapter 4: studying the behaviors of foreign bank entry. The theoretical part is to establish models to explain the timing choice and pattern choice of foreign bank entry; and the empirical part is to anlyse the behaviors of foreign bank entry and the influencing factors with Chinese data.First, this part analyses the timing choice of foreign bank entry and reasons, then, the location choice and reasons, at last, the pattern choice and reasons based on Chinese market.Chapter 5: studying the effects of foreign bank entry. The theoretical part is to establish a game model to demonstrate the effects of foreign bank entry to the host country banking; and the empirical part is to test the effects of foreign bank entry to the Chinese banking efficiency.Chapter 6: studying the regulation of foreign bank entry. The first part is to explore the theoretical base of regulation to the foreign bank entry, then, establish sigal game model, moral hazard model and moderate regulation model to analyse the regulation to the foreign bank entry. The empirical part is to anlyse the international experiences of the regulation to foreign bank entry and some host countries regulation cases , at last, analyse Chinese regulation experience to foreign bank entry and the limitations ,then brings forward some advices.Chapter 7: the third part of the dissertation. The chapter summarizes the research, gives some advices and prospects the future research of the problem of foreign bank entry.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:1. Based on utility theory, the author establishes the micro-model of the reasons of foreign bank entry. From a utility model of foreign bank entry, the author explains the reasons of foreign bank entry. The micro model and the OLI theory based on host countries financial freedom can construct the theory base of the motivation of foreign bank entry. Then, the author analyses the motivation of foreign bank entry Chinese market empirically based on three phases panel data.2. Establishing the timing choice model of the foreign bank entry. The author analyses the optimal choice timing from the theory based on real option model firstly. Then, the author analyses the timing choice of foreign bank entry Chinese market and its affecting factors empirically. 3.Analyzing the mode choice of foreign bank entry Chinese market and tests the factors that affect the pattern choice of foreign bank entry firstly. The author researches the pattern choice of foreign bank entry in Chinese market and its affective factors with the ordinal result Logistic regression model.4. Establishing the effect model of the foreign bank entry. The author extends the classical K-M model in micro-bank theory,and analyses the effect of foreign bank entry to the host countries banking.Relative results are published in Finance Research, Shanghai management science ect. The other results are in the phases of reviewing, such as Research of International Finance, Management Review and Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University etc.更多还原