美国的香港政策：决策的视角（1989-2007）

【作者】 沈本秋；

【导师】 倪世雄；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际关系， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 自1989年以来,美国开始深入介入香港“一国两制”的实施。香港回归前美国出台针对香港的特殊移民政策,关注香港的民主化进程与人权,并制定《美国——香港政策法》。香港回归后,美国一直支持香港走向西方式民主,并不断介入香港的政治改革过程。这就是中美之间的“香港问题”。那么美国的香港政策是一个怎样的决策过程?美国的香港政策对香港“一国两制”的影响如何?针对上述两个问题,本文将从对外政策研究的决策过程出发,综合分析美国香港政策生成的宏观、中观和微观三个层次的因素,即国际环境的变化、美国国内政治和社会环境、以及决策者个体特点。为了使三个层次的分析更加便于操作,本文在宏观层次引进了理性行为者模式,在中观层次引进了跨机构政治模式,在微观层次引入决策者个体特点和认知因素,来分析美国的香港的政策决策是一个怎样的过程,并比较不同决策结果所生成的美国香港政策对“一国两制”影响程度的差异。通过分析,本文发现,美国对香港这一具有国际政治经济“二元特征”地区的政策具有以下特点:老布什政府在维护美国在港利益与保持中美友好关系之间寻求平衡;克林顿政府尽管也在维护美国在港利益和维持中美关系之间寻求平衡,但这种平衡偏向于维护美国在港利益;小布什政府第一阶段出于全球反恐以及朝核问题等战略需要而急于和中国谋求发展良好关系,所以为了中美关系大局,美国的平衡是偏向维护中美关系的,而第二阶段小布什政府逐步加大了在全球推动民主的战略,尽管也有平衡,但是偏重于扩展美国在香港的利益。总之,美国的香港政策表现出确定性和不确定性。确定性的一面就是历届美国政府尽力在维护中美关系和扩展美国在香港的利益之间寻求平衡。不确定性就是这种平衡并不总是稳定的,有时候偏向于维护中美关系,有时候偏向于扩展美国在港利益。美国的香港政策为何有上述特点?理性行为者模式可以解释美国香港政策的确定性,跨机构政治模式和决策者个体因素可以解释美国香港政策的不确定性。作为理性行为者的美国政府既要维护美国在香港的利益,又要维护中美关系,所以会尽量在二者之间寻求平衡,因此理性行为者模式能够解释为什么三届美国政府都尽力在维护中美关系和维护美国在港利益之间寻求平衡;跨机构政治模式能够解释在意识形态、利益团体和党派政治等因素影响下,国会努力维护美国在港利益;决策者个体因素能够解释,当决策者个人倾向中国和重视现实战略时会维护中美关系,而决策者不倾向中国和重视国内价值时会维护美国在港利益。但这三种方式单独都不具有充分解释力。美国自1989年以来历届政府的香港政策决策过程都是这三种决策方式在综合起作用。但是不同的政府时期三种决策视角的解释力不一样。老布什政府时期理性行为者模式解释力最强,所以该政府的政策以在维护中美关系和维护美国在港利益之间寻求平衡为主。克林顿政府时期跨机构政治模式解释力最强,所以该政府的政策偏重维护美国在港利益。小布什政府时期决策者个体因素解释力最强,所以美国的香港政策体现出不稳定特点,在2003年前偏重于维护中美关系,而2003年后偏重于维护美国在港利益。就美国1989年以来历届政府的香港政策对“一国两制”的影响而言,小布什政府2003年以前的政策负面影响较小,老布什政府的政策负面影响相对较大,克林顿政府和小布什政府2003年之后的政策负面影响最大。从政策意图和政策绩效来说,当美国的对港政策目标是倾向于维护中美关系时,其政策对“一国两制”发展的负面影响较小;当美国的主要政策目标是在维护中美关系和维护美国在港利益之间寻求平衡时,其政策对“一国两制”发展的负面影响较大;当美国的主要政策目标是为了维护美国在香港的利益时,其政策对“一国两制”发展的负面影响最大。从决策视角来看,理性行为者模式主导的政策(老布什政府)对香港“一国两制”负面影响较大;跨机构模式主导的政策(克林顿政府)对香港“一国两制”负面影响最大;决策者个体因素主导的政策(小布什政府)最不稳定,决策者重视维护中美关系时,其政策对“一国两制”负面影响较小;当决策者重视维护美国在港利益时,其政策对香港“一国两制”负面影响最大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1989, the U.S. has been intervening in the implementation of "One Country, Two Systems" in Hong Kong. Before the return of Hong Kong to China, the U.S. invented special immigration policy for Hong Kong, cared about democratization and human rights progresses and worked out U.S.—Hong Kong Policy Act. After the return, the U.S. has been urging Hong Kong on the way to the democratization of western style, and intervening in the political reform of Hong Kong. Hence arose the Hong Kong issue between China and U.S. On the basis of these historical facts, this paper tries to answer the following two questions: what on earth is U.S. policy-making process? How should we assess the negative influences of U.S. policy upon "One Country, Two Systems"?In order to find out solutions to the two questions, this paper investigates the following determining factors: the evolution of the international system, U.S. domestic politics and the individual characteristics of decision-makers. To be more convenient to operate in analyses, this paper adopts Rational Actor Model in analyzing the international system, introduces Interbranch Politics Model to investigating U.S. domestic politics and makes a survey of decision-makers’ styles, beliefs, values and preferences.All the work helps us to find out the following features of U.S. policy to Hong Kong of dual characteristics in international political economy: the Bush Sr. Administration managed to seek a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.’ interests in Hong Kong when designing U.S.’s policies to Hong Kong; though the Clinton Administration sought the same balance, it attached more importance to safeguarding U.S.’ interests in Hong Kong; the Bush Jr. Administration also sought a balance; however, it paid more attention to maintaining Sino-U.S. relationship before 2003 while safeguarding U.S. interests in Hong Kong after 2003. In a word, there are certainties and uncertainties in U.S. policy to Hong Kong. What is certain is that the successive administrations since 1989 have been trying to seek a balance policy. What is uncertain is that the balance is not always stable.Why is U.S.’ Hong Kong policy so sophisticated? The Rational Actor Model may explain the certainties, namely, the causes of why the U.S. Administrations since 1989 sought a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.’ interests in Hong Kong. The Interbranch Politics Model and the individual characteristics of decision-makers may provide solutions to the uncertainties. The former answers why Congress tries to maximize U.S. interests in Hong Kong; the latter explains why some decision-makers focuses on maximizing U.S. interests in Hong Kong and why some focuses on maintaining Sino-U.S. relations. However, any perspective alone cannot explain the decision-making process of U.S. All the three perspectives combined together may give us a comprehensive explanation of U.S’ decision-making process.Although the three perspectives explain U.S. Hong Kong policy-making process, there are differences among them. The Rational Actor Model is stronger than the Interbranch Politics Model and the individual characteristics of decision-makers in explaining the Bush Sr. Administration’s policy to Hong Kong; therefore, this Administration focused on seeking a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.’ interests in Hong Kong. The Interbranch Politics Model is stronger than the other two perspectives in explaining Clinton Administration’s policy, so this Administration focused on maximizing U.S.’ interests in Hong Kong. In Bush Jr. Administration, the individual characteristics is more predominant than the other two, therefore, U.S.’ policy is not stable.How should we assess the negative influences of U.S.’ policy to Hong Kong? Comparatively speaking, the Clinton Administration exerted the most negative influences to "One Country, Two systems" while the Bush Sr. Administration exerted less negative influences. The Bush Jr. Administration before 2003 exerted much less negative influences; however, after 2003, this Administration exerted the most negative influences. Considering policy intentions and performances, when the U.S. intends to maximize the interests in Hong Kong, the policy results in the most negative influences to "One Country, Two systems"; when the U.S. tries to seek a balance between maintaining Sino-US relationship and safeguarding U.S.’ interests in Hong Kong, the policy results in less negative influences; when the U.S. attaches more importance to maintaining Sino-U.S. relations, the policy results in much less negative influences. Finally, considering the three perspective of decision-making, this paper comes to the following conclusions: the policy-making process led by the Interbranch Politics Model brings about the most negative influences to "One Country, Two Systems"; the policy-making process led by the Rational Actor Model brings about less negative influences; the policy-making process led by the individual characteristics results in instable policy; when the policy-makers attach more importance to Sino-U.S. relations, the policy-making process brings about much less negative influences; however, when the policy-makers focuses on maximizing U.S.’ interest in Hong Kong, the policy-making process brings about the most negative influences.更多还原