【作者】 张子剑；

【导师】 寇纪淞；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 现代战争对武器装备有高科技依赖性,装备项目的研制对于国家军事战略制订和国民经济发展有着重要的影响。装备项目的高新技术特性、高时效性、跨学科、综合性、高投入性、高层次性和高复杂性等特点,决定了装备项目研制的高风险性,装备研制实施风险管理的质量直接影响着装备项目的成败。本文采用管理科学和风险管理的理论和方法,对装备项目研制的全寿命周期风险管理进行了系统深入的研究。论文的主要研究内容和创新成果如下。本文首先介绍了风险基本概念、风险与概率分布的关系、风险与效用函数等,总结了国内外风险管理发展概况。其次介绍了装备项目管理的要求、特殊性,通过分析装备风险的系统复杂性,构建了基于霍尔三维结构的装备项目风险管理体系,提出了装备风险管理的一般原则。然后,重点对装备研制项目的风险策划、识别、评估和监控几个方面进行了研究。其中基于装备研制的流程,通过构建解释结构模型对错综复杂的风险成因进行了深入详细的分析与归类,为进一步有效地监控与处理风险提供了工作基础和条件。综合运用基于PERT方法、AHP法、灰色模糊综合评价等方法从进度、费用、技术性能三个方面对装备研制进行了深入的风险分析。建立了装备研制风险动态评估公式,构建了装备研制风险评估体系。最后,根据装备研制项目的动态监控及特殊性,设计了装备研制风险预警系统,提出了开展装备研制风险管理工作的5S要素模型和工作方法的概要,并结合实例进行了实证研究,力图整体梳理装备研制风险管理的脉络,提出了风险管理涉及的某些新的理论和研究方法。本文研究试图建立复杂装备研制风险管理体系,并为制定行之有效的实施方法提供有益参考,以促进现实风险管理在复杂装备研制中的应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern wars are dependent on the advanced technologies of the weapons. Thus the development for equipment has a great impact on the national military strategy and the national economy development. The equipment projects are characterized as high-tech, high-real-time, integrative, and complex. These features determine the high risk of the equipment projects. The quality of the implementation of risk management decides directly the success of the equipment projects. This paper adopts the theory and method of management sciences and risk management to make an integrated research on the development for equipment projects in the view of the entire life cycle management. The main research and achievements of this thesis are as follows.Firstly, the basic concepts of risk are introduced, and the relation between risk and probability distribution, and the utility function are analysed. The development of risk management in China and abroad is reviewed. After the systematical complexity of equipment risk is investigated, we construct the risk management system of equipment projects based on the Hall three-dimensional model, and propose the general principles of the equipment risk management.Then, we carry on multi-facets analyses on the risk management of equipment projects, including the risk plan, risk identification, risk evaluation and supervising about the development for equipment project. Regarding on the procedure of the equipment research and development, we define and classify the complex causes of the risk by setting up structural models for explaination, and thus provide solid base for promoting effective risk supervising and management. On the other hand, The PERT, AHP and gray fuzzy evaluation are employed synthetically to analyze schedule risk, cost risk and technique risk. In addition, We set up the risk evaluation dynamic system and models.Moreover, in order to implement dynamic supervision according to particularities of the equipment project development, we design the early warning system of equipment development risk and put forward the 5s element model. We also conduct a case study for a better understanding of core elements of the risk management for equipment research, and present new theory as well as new research methods.This thesis tries to set up a risk management system of complex equipment development and to provide some positive reference to establish effective implement method. The aim is to realize the application of the risk management in the research of the complex equipment.更多还原