【作者】 刘权乐；

【导师】 刘应宗；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 城市化、机动化进程的加快,使得城市客运交通迅速发展,同时也造成能源消耗过多、环境污染加剧。在世界石油资源日益减少、油价不断走高的今天,城市客运交通节能已迫在眉睫。城市客运交通节能直接与客运车辆能效高低相关,也与城市客运交通系统中的不同交通方式的相互转化与换乘相关。本文运用管理科学理论和系统分析的方法,对城市客运交通节能管理进行了全面深入的研究,提出了城市客运交通节能管理的理论和方法,并运用到实际管理中去。1、运用系统分析的方法,对城市客运交通结构、不同交通方式在城市客运交通结构中的分担率进行了分析,提出从交通结构节能、交通工具节能两个不同方面构建节能型的城市客运交通结构。2、对以自行车为代表的非机动车的出行特征和优化自行车与公共交通换乘模式对城市客运交通节能的作用进行了分析,提出合理规划自行车交通出行规模的方法。3、运用比较方法,对非公共机动交通方式转移到公共交通方式对整个城市客运交通节能的贡献比率进行了分析,提出了合理规划和提高公共交通在整个城市客运交通中分担率的战略措施,并指出实现这一措施的方法、步骤和途径。4、针对新增机动车引起城市客运交通能耗的不断增加,构建了基于神经网络的城市客运交通工具保有量的预测模型,提出通过制定有效的政策法律,引导居民理性购车、合理使用、降低单车能耗。5、构建了基于个人出行效用最大化和社会交通节能效用最大化的出行周转量模型,提出采取多种措施引导居民出行时选择合理的出行方式,降低居民单位出行能耗。更多还原

【Abstract】 The high speed development of urbanization and motorization brings forth urban passenger transport development. But there exist some negative effects while we should pay close attention to. These negative effects include lots of energy consumption and environment polluting etc. Be confronted with the decreasing oil resources and increasing oil price, the energy conservation of the urban passenger transport has become very important. The energy efficiency of urban passenger transport has direct relation to the fuel consumption of vehicles and the transfer in different vehicles of urban passenger transport system. The thesis analyzed the energy efficiency management of the urban passenger transport deeply using the theory of management and system analysis. Pointed out the theories and methods how to make a reasonable plan about the urban passenger transport system management and use the theory to supervise the process.1. The thesis analyzed the urban passenger transport structure system through system analysis method and established the energy efficiency transport structure through the angles of transport structure energy efficiency and transport vehicles energy efficiency by analyzing the different transport vehicle rate in the urban passenger transport structure.2. Pointed out methods how to make a reasonable plan about the scale of bicycles. Analyzed the function of the energy efficiency about the urban passenger in transport both the bicycle and the transfer of ride mode between bicycles and urban passenger transports.3. Pointed out the ways, steps and methods how to make a reasonable plan about the public transport and enhance the reasonable share of public transportation in urban passenger transport system. Through comparative analysis, it can be concluded that passengers who adopt mobile transportation shift to the public transportation will reduce energy consumption. Based on technology feasible, economy reasonable and environment sustainable, the thesis proposed the strategic measure of the shift.4. Because of the increasing vehicles resulted in the more and more energy consumption the thesis established the forecast model about the amount of urban passenger transport vehicles based on artificial neural networks, through which can forecast the increasing rate of vehicles scientifically, constitute the effective policy and the law, guide the resident to take a rational auto purchase and a reasonable use, reduce the bicycle energy consumption.5. Constructed travel mode based on the utility maximizing individual journey and the social maximum utility energy conservation which can lead resident to choose rational trip mode and reduce the resident unit journey energy consumption.更多还原