【作者】 胡明形；

【导师】 翟中齐；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文以可持续发展理论和发展经济学理论为指导,分析了影响林业产业发展的主要因素,设计了西部林业产业发展研究的分析框架。依据分析框架,在对西部森林资源和林业发展的历史与现状描述的基础上,采用定性和定量分析相结合、规范分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法,在西部土地适宜性评价的基础上,系统考虑西部地区农、林、牧用地的关系,测算出西部林地资源的总量潜力,并依据西部地区林种结构变化的要求,测算了各林种的林地资源潜力;在此基础上,通过分析西部地区林地生产力的潜力,测算了西部木材生产的最大潜力。通过对木材、人造板、木家具、木浆、薪炭材等木质林产品,水果等非木质林产品以及森林旅游市场需求的主要影响因素的分析,运用历史数据建立了各种产品的市场需求预测模型,对未来西部商品材、薪炭材、人造板、木家具、木浆等木质林产品,水果等非木质林产品以及森林旅游的市场容量和潜力进行测度。运用区域产业结构分析中的份额—偏离方法(Shift-share Method),以全国林业产业结构为参照,分析西部作为一个整体单元,以及西部各省区林业产业结构的优势和潜力,并选择各省区具有发展潜力的优势产业。研究结果表明:(1)在西部多宜性土地资源按农、林、牧的优先序利用的前提下,西部实际宜林地的最大面积为1.63亿hm~2。后备林地资源以二等林地为主;林地的现实生产力与气候生产力间相差很远,潜力很大;以西部林地现实生产力和目标生产力计算,在用材林林地充分利用前提下,西部用材林资源的年最大木材供给量分别为1.16亿m~3和2.16亿m~3。从地区分布看,内蒙古、广西、云南和四川(含重庆)是西部木材生产的主要潜力区。(2)未来西部林业产业发展中,无论是原木还是其他木质林产品,都具有很大的市场容量和市场潜力。在考虑西部未来资源条件决定的木材供给能力的前提下,西部工业用材的市场容量2030年后基本稳定在2.0亿m~3左右,其他木质林产品的市场潜力水平与目前产量比分别为:木制家具45%～75%、人造板55%～70%、木浆20%～90%。西部薪炭材的需求容量表现出不断减少的趋势。从非木质林产品看,西部目前的实际水果产量已经超过2030年西部的区内市场容量,已无规模潜力可言;西部水果的市场潜力将主要在区外市场,与目前产量比,2030年前的未来时期内,区内外市场总潜力约为430万t～1700万t。花卉、中药材具有较大的资源与市场潜力。随着西部社会经济的发展,西部森林旅游市场的游人规模增长具有很大的潜力,从近中期看,游人规模增长的潜力区主要集中在西南地区和西北的内蒙、陕西和新疆,从中远期看,西南地区,特别是广西、四川和云南是未来西部森林旅游市场游人规模增长的主要潜力区。(3)从西部总体看,林业发展中存在产业结构劣势,不具有促进未来林业发展的产业结构潜力,产业结构需要进行调整。茶桑果、中药材种植、木竹材采运、森林旅游是目前西部最具发展潜力的产业;花卉种植、锯材和木片加工等产业虽然原有基础较差,但具有产业优势和较强的产业竞争力,是近期西部发展潜力较大的产业;人造板加工、木制品制造、非木质林产品制品、木竹藤家具制造、林产化工与造纸等产业在西部发展基础较差,但成长速度很快,是西部林业发展中具有远期潜力的产业。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the theories of development economics and sustainable development, an analytic framework is designed based on the factors impacting on forestry economic industries development. By the analytic framework, based on a expatiation upon the historical and actual status of forest resources and forestry development in Western China, and systematical consideration in the demand of land using for agriculture, and forestry and stockbreeding, using the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, the maximal land area usable for forestry is accounted According to the date of land usability appraising. By request for the reasonable structure of forest using types, the land area usable for the shelterbelt forest, timber forest, economic forest, fire wood forest and special purpose forest are estimated respectively. Based on an analysis of the factors impacting on market demands for wood forest products such as timber, wooded panel, wooded furniture, wood pulp and wood fuel, and non-wood forest products such as fruit, flower, and forest tour, the forecast models for these products are established respectively by the statistics, and the market capacity and potential of these products are estimated. Using the Shift-share Method, the structure national forestry economic industry as the frame of reference, the advantage and potential in structure of forestry economic industry of holistic west-china and every province are analyzed, and the industries with developing advantage and potential are elected for every province in Western China. The conclusions as follow: (1) on the premise of the preferential sequence of the multi-usable land using is by agriculture, forestry and stockbreeding, the maximal land area usable for forestry is 163 million hm~2. The reserved land suitable for forestry is mostly second-class. The forest land is with a higher potential of productivity because the actual productivity of forest land is out and away lower than the climatic productivity. If the land usable for forestry was used fully, the maximal output of timber would be 116 million m~3 and 216 million m~3 by the actual productivity and the expected productivity respectively. The districts with higher potential of timber production are Neimenggu municipality, Guanxi municipality, Yunnan province and Sichuan province in Western China. (2) Both the wood and the non-wood forest products will be with great market capacity and potential in the future. On the premise of the future supply capacity of timber determined by the forest resources, the market capacity for industrial roundwood of Western China will stabilize round about 200 million m~3, meanwhile, comparing with the actual output, the potential of market capacity for other wood forest products are respectively as fallow: wood furniture with 45%～75%, wooded panel with 55%～70%, wood pulp with 20%～90%.The demand for wood fuel will decrease in the future in Western China. The actual output of fruits in west is more than the demands of Western China in 2030, so the potential of demands for the fruits of Western China will be from the market out of Western China. Comparing with the actual output, the total potential of demands from the market in Western China and out of Western China for the fruits of Western China will be about 4.3 million t～17 million t until 2030. With the social and economic development, there will be large potential for tourists number in Western China. In the near future, the districts with higher potential for tourists number will be in the Southwest, Neimenggu municipality, Shanxi province and Xinjiang municipality, but in the long future, the main districts with higher potential for tourists number will be in the Southwest, especially in Guanxi municipality, Sichuan province and Yunnan province. (3) Western China as a integer, there is lack of relative advantage of forestry industrial structure that it is necessary to be optimized. Fruit planting, officinal planting, forest cutting and forest tour are the industries with higher developmental potential in Western China at present, meanwhile flower planting, sawnwood processing are the industries with weaker foundation and stronger advantage and competition, which will become the industries with higher potential of development in the near future. Wooded panel processing, wooded products making, non-wooded forest products processing, furniture making, chemical processing of forest products and wood pulp processing are the industries with weak developmental foundation, but with higher growth rate, which will become the industries with higher potential of development in the long future.更多还原