【作者】 周勇；

【导师】 张宗益；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 伴随2004年国家“重农”政策实施发生的农村外出劳动力回流,是继“民工潮”和1990年代中期民工短暂回流之后,当代中国农村人口流动的又一引入注目的现象。本文以“重庆市农村外出劳动力回流动因及对策”为题进行研究,希望建立一个分析农村外出劳动力回流解释力强的理论模型,并定量分析影响民工回流的的各个因素,探析这一社会现象蕴涵的重大政策和战略意义,为政府决策提供针对劳动力回流问题有说服力的政策建议。本文论述的逻辑结构是:结合西部地区劳动力转移现状来介绍劳动力转移的形态,分析劳动力回流的历史进程,指出在许多地区大量出现“民工荒”的情况下,[0]农民工依然大量回流到农村这个矛盾,并由此展开本文的论述[0]。在借鉴国内外相关理论及模型的基础上,从我国的国情出发,以重庆农村外出劳动力的流动现状为研究对象构建符合实际的理论框架,提出本文研究的全景式推拉合力理论模型。在对调查样本进行深入的统计分析的基础上,找出影响农村外出劳动力回流的一系列因素,将这些因素与理论模型相结合构建出计量模型进行实证分析。在统计分析和实证分析检验的基础上提出相关政策建议。通过详实具体的入户调查、较为深入的理论分析,并利用现代数量分析方法进行实证,得出了以下一些有意义的研究结果,也是本文研究的主要创新之处。①构建分析劳动力流动的推拉合力理论模型。本文在回顾分析刘易斯模型、拉-费模型、乔根森理论、Todaro模型、新迁移理论以及推拉理论的基础上,基于西部特别是重庆农村劳动力转移流动的实际,吸取上述六大理论的精华,以推拉理论模型为基础构建起全景式推拉合力理论模型,作为本文的理论分析框架。在推拉合力理论模型框架中,对于农村劳动力迁移决策,农村和城市均存在推力与拉力,劳动力迁移决策最终取决于城市、农村的四个方面的推力和拉力共同形成的最终合力方向。这样,从注重内生变量因素到内生变量因素与外生变量因素并重,从单推力单拉力到双推力双拉力,从推力拉力到推拉合力,从封闭式作用力小循环圈到全景式合力大循环圈,将传统的劳动力迁移推拉理论模型创新为全景式推拉合力理论模型,从而也使农村外出劳动力回流研究进入到一个新的境界。②基于入户调查和数量分析定量阐明影响回流的主要原因。在对重庆部分村镇进行问卷调查和入户访谈的基础上,选用Probit模型和Logit模型对影响劳动力回流的动因进行了数量分析,选取12个指标作为影响因素进入决策模型。这其中包括了制度因素、政策影响、人文传统等传统理论模型不予考虑的外生变量因素。主要分析结果为:性别、婚姻、留在家庭劳动力数量、累积打工时间、家庭人均耕地面积、家庭中学龄前及学龄儿童数等变量对回流发生的概率影响较大;受教育程度对回流的影响并不明显;与一般的预期相反,中央的利农政策虽然有助于引导农民重视种地,但利农政策的实施还远不是促使农民工回流的主要原因。③提出应对农村外出劳动力回流的对策建议。基于影响农民工回流的各种推力和拉力因素,在推拉合力理论模型的大框架下,本文从城市视角、农村层面、城乡统筹战略三个方面提出了若干有针对性的政策建议,如积极稳妥改革城乡分割的体制机制,逐步扫清“农民变市民”的制度障碍;输出地积极探索政府公共服务向外出农民工群体延伸的新机制,提高对农民工服务管理水平;加强农村社会化服务,解决外出农民工的后顾之忧;推动土地承包经营权流转,提高农业机械化普及程度,促进农村土地适度规模经营;明确把促进外出农村劳动力在城镇稳定就业作为统筹城乡的重要着力点等等。这些对策建议,具有较强的针对性和可操作性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the year of 2004, along with national agricultural development policy, Chinese rural migrant workers rushed back to their home-villages, shaping another eye-catching phenomenon after the previous tide of peasants going out and temporarily coming back in the mid 1990s. Through establishing a theoretical model with strong explanatory power for the return of these migrant rural workers, this thesis explores the significance implied in this social phenomenon by quantitatively analyzing all factors affecting their return behavior, with the aim to provide persuasive policy suggestions on this aspect.The logic structure of this thesis is as follow. Based on the current situation of rural labor migration in the west of China, the author firstly introduces the patterns of labor migration, analyzes the historical process of their return, and points out the contradictory reality of rural labor return against the existence of labor shortage. And then, by introducing the related theories and models form home and abroad, and starting from the actual circumstances in Chongqing China, this thesis proposes the key model to explain this phenomenon---the panoramic push-pull-joint force theory and model. Next, based on in-depth statistic analysis of sample survey data, the author obtains a list of factors affecting the return of rural migrant workers, and then conducts empirical study on these factors and the econometric model. Finally, relevant policy suggestions would be provided on basis of the statistical analysis and empirical analysis,Through detailed household investigation, in-depth theoretical analysis and empirical study, the author achieves the following significant results, which are also the major innovative points of this thesis.Firstly, the theoretical model of panoramic push-pull-joint force is established to analyze the labor migration. Based on analysis of Lewis model, Latin America - fee model, Jorgensen theory, Todaro model, the new theory of migration as well as the push-pull theory, in consideration of rural labor migration reality in the Chongqing-based western region, the theoretical model of panoramic push-pull-joint force is set up as the framework for the whole theoretical analysis. Since there exist the push and pull forces in both rural and urban areas, inside the general framework, the final joint force formed by the 4 types of push and pull forces is essential for the rural labor migration decision making, Thus, the change from focus only on endogenous factors to both the endogenous and exogenous factors, the change from single push &pull force to double push &pull forces, the change from separate pull and push force to joint push-pull force, and the change from enclosed force small-cycle to the panoramic joint-force big cycle, produces out the panoramic push-pull-joint force theoretical model based on the traditional labor migration push-pull theoretical model, and further upgrades the research on return of rural migrant workers.Secondly, the main reasons for return of migrant rural workers are clarified based on household investigation and quantitative analysis. The Probit model and Logit model are used to analyze factors affecting the return of migrant labors based on questionnaires and interviews in some of towns and villiages of Chongqing Municipality. 12 indicators enter the decision-making model as affecting factors, including institutional factor, policy factor, traditional and cultural factor etc. Through analysis it is concluded that factors like sex, marital status, number of labor remaining at home-village, accumulative working time, family per capita arable land, number of pre-school and school-age children in the family etc exert outstanding influence on the return phenomenon, while contrary to general expectations ,the education level has no apprant impact on this phenomenon. Moreover, although the national agricultural development policy promotes the motivation of peasants to conduct farming, it hardly constructs the mian reason for the return of migrant rural workers.Finally, the countermeasures to resolve problems in the return of migrant rural workers are put forward. Inside the framework push-pull joint force model, based on actual factors of pushing and pulling, this thesis proposes policy suggestions from urban perspective, rural perspective, as well as the rual-urban coordinated development strategic perspective, including refroming on the rural-urban division market system in an active and prudent way to clear obstacles for rural people becoming citizens, exploring public service covering the migrant rural workers in their home-village to improve service performance for rural workers, strengthening rural social community service to encourge the rural workers going out without worrying about issues back at home, promoting the system of land contract and popularization of machines in agricultural production to stimulate scale production of agriculture in rural area, and also emphasizing the improtance of stable employment of migrant rural workers in the urban area, etc, which are all feasible and practical.更多还原