【作者】 李彩林；

【导师】 张勇传；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 系统分析与集成， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着中国电力工业的发展和电力市场的逐步形成,各个电网公司、电站等实体实行竞价上网,优化调度的目标也发生了变化。以追求发电效益最大为目标,使水电系统就从水火电系统中独立出来。水电系统的独立,带来的是水电系统的优化调度工程化的迅速发展,各个电网公司相继进行优化调度高级应用软件的开发和应用,其中中长期优化调度是其中的一个重要部分。中长期优化调度对于水库的优化运行有着非常重要的意义。本文结合《华中电网直调水电厂联合优化调度研究软件开发》、《湖南沅水流域梯级电站优化调度系统开发工程》和《青居水电站、东西关水电站及嘉陵江梯级调度中心经济运行软件设计和服务》项目的实际科研课题,研究了中长期优化调度的动态概率调度问题,对王金文博士提出的中长期动态概率调度方法进行了理论完善并付诸工程实践。首次运用均值一次二阶矩法对时段风险进行了尝试性的分析计算,目的是为调度决策提供辅助和参考。通过研究取得了一些有意义的研究成果。论文首先引出本文的研究领域,阐述了中长期优化调度与风险分析的必要性和意义,接着对水电站中长期优化算法进行了综合评述,最后确立了本文研究的重点。详细阐述了中长期动态概率调度方法的理论内容。该方法是在总结以往工程项目实践经验的基础上提出的,最初目的是作为中长期优化调度的辅助参考。研究发现将其直接用于优化调度也有良好的效果。详细介绍了方法的目标函数、约束条件,运用P-分线性规划法进行长序列模拟优化调度求解;通过概率统计分析方法生成可以跟随水库客观测量动态更新的动态概率调度图;利用水头试算迭代法制定了中长期优化调度计划,给出了算法流程;简单介绍了函数调度的方法内容;对方法进行了评述,最后通过对丹江口电站进行的中长期动态概率调度实验,生成了水位-概率、出力-概率、出库流量-概率的动态概率调度图;制定了中长期动态概率调度计划,与常规方法进行了逐年发电量比较,实验结果证明该方法明显优于常规方法可以作为中长期优化调度的辅助参考也可以用于优化运行。本文介绍了关于风险的各类定义,说明风险定义选择应当根据研究领域的实际情况而定;接着介绍了风险的特征和分类,及水利行业某些方面的风险研究情况;对风险分析计算的一些常见方法进行了评述和比较;介绍了优化调度方面可能遇到的一些风险,并选取了其中的放水风险进行了尝试性的分析和计算,即运用均值一次二阶矩方法(MFOSM)来计算调度中的放水风险。介绍了该方法的理论内容,对随机变量去相关化、非正态变量正态化等问题进行了理论分析和处理,给出了计算时段风险、风险传递和总风险的步骤和流程。为进一步的探索提供了一个思路。对时段风险和控制期总风险进行了实验计算,计算结果满足作为优化调度辅助参考的要求。论文最后对本文的研究成果进行总结,并归纳了有待继续研究的一些问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of China electric power industry, the electricity market is being gradually formed; plants and power grids carry out selling energy with completive bidding; the objective of plants’optimal scheduling is changing. Objective becomes maximizing the generation benefit with the independent of the hydropower system, which leads to the rapidly progressing of optimal scheduling engineering and the application and development of the advanced optimal software for the power grids. The long-term optimal scheduling is a main part of the software and is very important to the reservoir optimal operation. Based on“the research and the development of the combination optimal scheduling for the plants belonging to Huazhong Power Grid”,“the exploitation engineering for the cascade reservoir optimal scheduling system on Yuan valley of Hunan”and“Design and service of the economical operation software for the Jialing river cascade operation centre and plants of Qinju and Dongxiguan”, the research on the long-term reservoir dynamic probability scheduling is carried out. The method of long-term reservoir dynamic probability scheduling is theoretically improved and applied for engineering application. For the first time, Mean First Order Second Moment (MFOSM) is applied to the trial research on the stage risk analyses in order to provide the auxiliary reference for the operation decision, and some useful conclusion is achieved from the research.Firstly, the research field is established by presenting the indispensability and significance of long-term optimal scheduling and risk analyses. And then, the research field is established after evaluating long-term reservoir optimal algorithms. The theory of long-term reservoir dynamic probability scheduling is particularly proposed. The approach is brought forward by summarizing the engineering experiences, which is served as the auxiliary reference for long-term reservoir optimal scheduling originally. After completing the research, we find that favorable effect can be achieved from applying the approach to the optimal scheduling. The objective and restrictions are particularly introduced and the P-decomposition linear programming is used to solve the problem of long sequence simulation optimal scheduling. Through the probability and statistic analysis method, the dynamic probability scheduling chart, which can be real-time updated according to the reservoir observable values, is achieved. Then the long-term optimal scheduling is carried out using the head trial iterative algorithm and the computation flow chart is presented. Moreover, the function operation method is introduced briefly; and the evaluation of the approach is given. Finally, the engineering experiment results of long-term reservoir dynamic probability scheduling in Danjiangkou plant are presented, and the dynamic probability chart which combines of charts on pool level-probability, on power-probability and on outflow-probability is obtained. The long-term dynamic probability scheduling is achieved and compared with the routine method on the annual power energy. The result illustrates that the approach is better than the routine method and can be served as the assistance and applied for the optimal scheduling.The definitions of some kinds of risks are presented, and the risk definition should be chosen according to the actual circumstance of relative field. At the same time the risk character, classification and research in hydrology are introduced. And then, some familiar methods for risk analysis are evaluated. Some predictable risks in optimal scheduling are presented and the discharge risk is tentatively analyzed and calculated by MFOSM algorithm, which is proposed herein. And the de-correlation for random variables and the normalization of the non-normal variables are analyzed. The computation procedure and flowchart of the stage risk and the risk transformation are presented which provide a new perspective for further research. Further more, stage risk and horizon total risk are computed and the results satisfy the requirements of auxiliary reference for optimal scheduling.At last, the research achievements are summarized and directions for further research are pointed out.更多还原