【作者】 杨树；

【导师】 梁樑； 黄国全；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 旅游业作为香港的支柱产业之一,对香港的劳动力就业和经济发展起到了重要推动作用。中国中央政府和香港政府十分重视香港旅游业的健康发展,一系列全球推介活动的展开和“自由行”政策的实施,为香港旅游业发展注入了强大的动力。旅行社以此为契机,定制了多姿多彩的“港澳游”产品,为内地居民游览香港提供了便捷、经济的包价游服务。包价游产品作为一类综合性的旅游产品,涵盖了旅游活动的多个方面:住宿、游乐、交通、观光、购物和饮食等。提供这些服务的旅游服务商,连同旅行社一起,组成了一条完整的旅游供应链。这些企业相互竞争、相互依存、相互协作,为游客提供了丰富多彩的旅游体验。国内外对于旅游供应链的研究目前仍处于初步阶段,逐年递增的相关论文发表表明旅游供应链的研究正吸引越来越多学者的关注。然而,目前的研究还分散在多个学术领域,缺少一个完整的框架理论体系。同时,现有的研究很少涉及旅游供应链企业之间竞争与协调的理论分析。基于上述考虑,本文以香港旅游业为背景,从分析旅游需求的决定性影响因素出发,使用博弈论方法重点研究了旅游供应链企业之间的竞争与协调关系。本文共分为九章,主要内容如下:第一章从香港旅游业实践出发,提出旅游供应链的概念,指出了本文研究的目标,介绍了研究中涉及的方法和全文的结构安排。第二章首先介绍了旅游产品的特点,一类主要的旅游产品——包价游,以及旅游需求的影响因素。在现有研究的基础上,本章全面地描述、定义和界定了(包价)旅游供应链的基本概念和结构。最后,本章指出高效的旅游供应链管理要求对旅游供应链中企业之间竞争与协调关系进行深入的理解和分析。第三章全面回顾与研究相关的现有国际成果,包括:现有的旅游供应链相关文献,对旅游供应链中企业相互关系的研究,博弈论在供应链分析中以及旅游行业中的应用。第四章根据1985至2006年间香港旅游业的季度数据分析了影响香港旅游需求的主要经济因素。本章以自回归分布滞后计量模型为框架,经边界检验确定变量之间的长期关系,最后使用i.i.d bootstrap,Moving Block Bootstrap和WildBootstrap方法分别处理回归残差的白噪音、序列相关和异方差,以生成可靠的长期需求弹性的置信区间。第五章以香港迪斯尼乐园为背景,从旅游产品的效用出发,使用主题公园为领导者和旅行社为追随者的斯坦伯格博弈模型分析了它们的价格策略。结果显示主题公园可以通过数量折扣协调旅行社,从而达到系统最优。协调带来的利润增长通过纳什讨价还价博弈进行分配。由于占优地位,主题公园获得更多的利润增加份额。第六章研究由主题公园和旅行社组成的旅游供应链的最优质量决策问题。本章首先分析了给定主题公园服务质量时旅行社的最优质量决策。随后,本章指出主题公园服务质量的提高并不一定能激励旅行社选择高服务质量。最后,本章简单讨论了多个旅行社竞争时旅行社的最优质量决策。第七章考虑由主题公园,多个酒店和多个旅行社构成的复杂旅游供应链系统。酒店和旅行社采用利润最大化和销售最大化战略。使用多阶段博弈方法,本章首先分析不同的战略选择对于旅游供应链成员的影响。其次,研究发现当同部门的企业协调一致选择相同战略时,利润最大化战略是企业的最优选择。最后,当企业自由选择战略情况时,两种战略在市场均衡中可以共存。第八章在前一章的供应链结构和模型的基础上,构建了两条旅游供应链的竞争模型。基于博弈均衡结果,本章分析了旅游供应链成员数量、供应链偏好,以及供应链的纵向和横向整合是如何影响旅游供应链成员、部门以及整个旅游供应链的,并指出旅游供应链成员应该如何应对这些影响。第九章是全文总结与研究展望。本章对整篇论文所构建的模型体系的内容与主要结论进行了归纳,阐述了文章的创新之处,并在此基础上指出了今后可继续深入研究的方向与要点。本文的研究工作将理论分析同香港旅游业的管理实践紧密结合在一起,一方面扩展了现有旅游供应链研究的范围,另一方面为香港旅游业的可持续健康发展提供了理论基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of critical sectors, tourism has a significant contribution to the national prosperity, economic growth and employment of Hong Kong. Both China central government and Hong Kong local governments have paid a great attention on the sustainable development of Hong Kong tourism industry. The implementation of the Global Tourism Revival Campaign and a series of new initiatives orchestrated, such as the Individual Visit Scheme have successfully promoted the rapid growth of Hong Kong tourism industry. Taking this opportunity, tour operators customize various "Hong Kong package tour" for the mainland tourists to provide convenient and economical tourism services.Package tour is an integrative tourist program purposefully configured out of a variety of tourism activities, such as accommodation, amusing, transportation, sightseeing, shopping, and dinning etc. Different types of tourist components (activities) in package tours are provided by specialist agents and enterprises that form tourism supply chains. These competitive, interdependent, and coordinative entities in tourism supply chain work together to provide tourists rich and colorful tourism experiences.The research on tourism supply chain is still at its initial stage. But it has already attracted more attentions recently, as the number of relative literature grows steadily. However, the current studies on tourism supply chain disperse in a number of areas, which are lack of a comprehensive theoretical framework. Meanwhile, little research attention has been paid to the competition and coordination issues. Therefore, based on the practices of Hong Kong tourism industry, this thesis begins with identifying key economic factors on tourism demand, and then focuses on analyzing the competition and coordination in tourism supply chains using game theory approach.This thesis involves nine chapters, and the main content of each chapter is as follows:The first chapter introduces the conception of tourism supply chain, and represents the research objectives and methods, as well as the overall structure of this thesis.Chapter two firstly discusses the unique characters of tourism products, the package tour, and the key factors that impact on tourism demand. Then, based on the previous studies, this chapter comprehensively defines, describes and delimits the basic conceptions and structure of tourism supply chain for package tour. Finally, the chapter points out that the in-depth understand of competition and coordination is valuable and helpful to the efficient and effective tourism supply chain management.Chapter three reviews the relative literature including: literature on tourism supply chains, literature on tourism enterprises and their relationships, and literature on application of game theory in both supply chain and tourism research.Chapter four examines the long-run demand elasticities of Hong Kong inbound tourism for the period 1985:Q1-2006:Q4 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Bounds tests are employed to indentify the long-run relationships between inbound tourism demand and main economic determinants in Hong Kong tourism industry. Then, this chapter uses the i.i.d. Bootstrap, Moving Block Bootstrap and Wild Bootstrap which respectively take account of white noise error term, unknown forms of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity to provide more reliable confidence intervals for the long-run demand elasticities.Chapter five conducts a theoretical investigation into the pricing competition and coordination between a theme pack and a tour operator in the background of Hong Kong Disneyland. A Stackelberg game model is proposed to formulate the leader-follower relationship where the theme pack leads and the tour operator follows. The equilibrium prices are derived by backward induction. The theoretical results show that the theme park can coordinate with the tour operator through a quantity discount schedule. Nash Bargaining game suggests that the theme park receives a larger share of the profit growth due to its dominant market power.Chapter six investigates the optimal decision of service quality in a tourism supply chain including a theme park and a tour operator. The optimal quality decision of the tour operator is firstly discussed given the service quality of the theme park. It is also found that the improvement of the theme park’s service quality is not necessarily to motivate the tour operator choosing high service quality. Finally, a brief discussion in duopoly quality competition in tour operator market is addressed.Chapter seven considers a tourism supply chain consisting of a theme park, multiple tour operators and multiple accommodation providers. Tour operators and accommodation providers have two alternative strategies: profit and revenue maximization strategies. Multi-stage game model are proposed to formulate the relationships between the three sectors. Based on equilibrium solutions, this chapter finds the profit maximization strategy is a better choice when all enterprises in each of the sectors choose the same strategy coordinatively. If the tour operators and the accommodation providers freely choose their own strategies, both profit and revenue maximization strategies could coexist in market equilibrium.Chapter eight investigates the competition dynamics in two tourism supply chains, each of which is assumed to consist of a theme park, multiple accommodation providers, and multiple tour operators. Game theory is used to investigate the competition and coordination between these two tourism supply chains, between the three sectors within each supply chain and between the enterprises within each sector when configuring and marketing package holidays. Based on equilibrium solutions, this chapter discusses the impact of tourisms supply chain membership, preference, as well as strategic integrations on the performances of the enterprises, sectors, and whole tourism supply chain.The last chapter summarizes all the work of this thesis and gives some useful suggestions for future research.The research of this thesis closely links theoretic analysis and the practices of Hong Kong tourism industry. It not only extends the research scope of tourism supply chain in academic, but also provides theoretical foundation for sustainable development of Hong Kong tourism industry in practice.更多还原