【作者】 山丽杰；

【导师】 吴林海；

【作者基本信息】 江南大学 ， 食品贸易与文化， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代以来,我国蔬菜贸易发展迅速,1995年至2005年,出口量由213.49万吨增加到680.19万吨,增加了2.19倍,出口量居世界第一。蔬菜产业是加入WTO后中国农产品出口中为数不多的优势产品之一。然而,随着我国蔬菜出口贸易规模的不断扩大,绿色贸易壁垒已经成为我国蔬菜贸易发展遭遇的重要贸易壁垒之一。特别是2006年5月29日,我国蔬菜的主要进口国日本实施《肯定列表制度》后,我国的蔬菜特别是蔬菜初级加工产品受到了较为严重的影响。2006年我国对日蔬菜出口量为166.76万吨,首次出现—2.24%的负增长。因此,如何量化分析绿色贸易壁垒对我国蔬菜出口的影响,为我国政府和企业采取积极有效的措施提供依据和对策建议,已成为一项重大的社会研究课题。本研究将定性和定量分析相结合、理论与实证研究相结合,深入分析和研究绿色贸易壁垒问题,具体的逻辑思路如下:首先,从理论的高度分析绿色贸易壁垒日益盛行的原因,即可持续发展理论和环境成本内部化理论;其次,本文界定了绿色贸易壁垒的概念,对绿色贸易壁垒的特点和表现形式进行较为深刻的剖析;阐述绿色贸易壁垒的国际游戏规则。《TBT协议》、《SPS协议》、发达国家制定的绿色法规与指令是农产品绿色贸易壁垒的法律依据,主要表现为污染物与农药残留限量标准、包装与标签的要求以及对生物技术产品的规定和其他环保法规。其中,日本新近实施的《肯定列表制度》是最为严格的绿色标准法规之一。其次,从绿色贸易壁垒的形成机制和作用机制入手,研究其对发展中国家形成的相关效应。对出口商而言,绿色贸易壁垒的负面效应主要表现为导致额外的“符合成本”或被迫退出出口市场承担的“市场价值”。本研究在局部均衡模型的基础上,对二者进行了量化分析。再次,研究我国目前的蔬菜生产和贸易现状,特别针对《肯定列表制度》对我国蔬菜出口的影响展开分析,结果表明其负面影响分别为导致我国蔬菜出口量下降、受到检查的案例增多、出口企业成本增加、利润下降。就蔬菜类别而言,干制蔬菜受到的影响相对小于鲜冷冻蔬菜和加工保藏菜。但现有数据表明,干制蔬菜也受到了一定的影响。在此基础上,量化分析《肯定列表制度》对我国大葱对日出口的影响。目前,量化分析方法大概分为调查法、经济学研究方法、局部均衡模型、可计算的一般均衡模型四大类。由于,本研究针对一类具体的产品——大葱对日出口进行分析,采用局部均衡模型的价格差值法较为适宜。量化分析结果表明,2005年—2007年,t_GBT均高于200%,2006年的t_GBT比2005年增长了60%以上。随σ值的增大,t_GBT逐渐变小;当α值为0.5,t R为43.193日元/公斤时,无论σ取何值,我国的净福利皆为负值,即我国福利始终会有所损失。随着σ值的不断增大,我国的净福利损失呈现下降趋势。我国2006年的福利损失比2005年大幅上涨,2007年又略有下降。因此,《肯定列表制度》对我国大葱出口形成较为严重的贸易壁垒。最后,通过成功企业的实证研究表明通过HACCP体系认证和良好农业规范（GAP）,建立产品质量安全可追溯管理体系是出口企业突破绿色贸易壁垒的保证。在此基础上,提出应对绿色贸易壁垒的战略思路及对策。我国应以农业可持续发展为指导,以绿色化和产业化为发展途径,以提升蔬菜产业的标准化水平为核心,加速蔬菜产业的产业升级,尽快提高我国蔬菜产业突破绿色贸易壁垒的能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Vegetable trade of China developed quickly since 1990’s.From 1995 to 2005,Export Volume rised from 2134.9 thousand tons to 6801.9 thousand tons,and China is the biggest vegetable export country.Vegetable is a kind of advantageous product of China.However,according to the export volume expanding,green barriers to trade is becoming one of the important trade barrier.Especially when Japan implement positive list system, vegetable export of China was badly affected.Chinese vegetable export volume to Japan was 166.76million tons,declilne2.24%for the first time.So how to Quantitatively Analyze the influence of green barrier to trade toward China vegetable export is a important society research.This paper deeply analyze the problem of green barrier to trade with quantitative and qualitative study.The concrete Logical Thinking is following:Firstly,analyzing the reason of green barrier to trade prevailing,and give the concept of green barrier to trade,studying its features and manifestation,Describing game rule of green barrier to trade.TBT,SPS and green regulation making by developed coutries is lawful foundation.Positive List System is one of the most strict regulation.Secondly,studying effect of green barrier to trade to developing-country.To exporter,the negative effect of green barrier to trade is extra according cost or market value.This research quantitatively analyzed green barriers to trade on the base of partial Equilibrium Model.On the basis of it,studying present situation of vegetable industry and trade of China.Analysis of effect of Positive List System to Chinese vegetable export shows that its negative effect leads to Chinese export declining,rising inspection cases,increasing cost and interest declining.The influence of dried vegetable is not as bad as freezing vegetable and processing vegetable. Statistics shows that dried vegetable is affected also.Thirdly,quantitative Analysis of influence of Positive List System to China.In present, method of quantitative Analysis is devided into four kinds,that is,survey,economic research, partial Equilibrium Model,general Equilibrium Model.This research adopts price-wedge to analyze the green barrier to trade.The result shows that,from 2005 to 2007,t_GBT is higher than 200%.According toσincreasing,t_GBT is declining;Whenαis 0.5,t_R is 43.193Yen/kg,net welfare of Chinese is negative.But when ^σis decreasing,the loss of welfare is declining too. The welfare loss of 2006 is much larger than that of 2005.It shows that Positive List System seriously affected Chinese vegetable exportFinally,Empirical Study on a success company shows that GAP and HACCP can ensure vegetable production quality,Guiding by sustainable development of Agriculture,go Industrialization and green way,improving Standardization of vegetable industry will strong Chinese ablity to break through green barrier to trade as soon as possible.更多还原