【作者】 周爱香；

【导师】 宋献中；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 会计学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 自深沪两市成立证券交易所以来,上市公司不断地参与并购。每年的并购交易额都接近GDP的5%,所涉及的公司将近一千多家。这些现象,致使并购成为我国学者日益关注的理论与实践焦点。熵理论揭示物质的发展具有不可逆性,在封闭的系统里,熵只会朝着增加的方向发展。而对于开放的企业,在熵理论的指导下,会形成一种耗散结构。这种结构具有正负反馈的功能,使企业永远保持远离均衡的状态。在这种状态下,企业的熵会最小。本论文站在“企业—社会—自然”这一复合系统的基础上,利用熵理论剖析了企业的自然属性,认为并购是企业保持开放性的一种较好的方式,因为并购能从外界吸取负熵、释放正熵。企业并购会打破局部均衡,因为并购不断地与外界交换物质和能量。并购的动因与并购的终极目的就是追求熵变为负,避免熵增。文中抓住企业与社会和自然紧密联系的特点,建立了熵指标、类别熵指标,并选取了财务指标来计量各类别熵。同时,我们对这些财务指标的分类进行了聚类分析。聚类分析的结果表明:我们应用所选的财务指标计量相应的类别熵是合理的。最后,利用新建的指标体系对企业连续并购事件进行了预测分析和相关性分析。先利用参数和非参数检验法对有关并购样本分组的合理性进行了实证,即检验间隔期并购类和连续并购类分组的合理性。接着,我们应用logistic回归,检验企业并购是否与熵变有关。从实证结果的系数来看,它们的相关性很强。各自变量的回归系数,最高的是-19.499,最低的也有4.567。最后,我们对模型进行了预测能力分析。从实证结果来看,加入四大类别熵变作为自变量后的模型预测能力达到了88.3%,远高于仅有常数项的模型预测能力51.6%。所以,我们的结论是:上市公司可以用四大类别熵还原熵、压力熵、氧化熵、支持熵来解释其并购行为;各参与并购的上市公司的连续并购决策与四大类别熵变相关;企业的四大类别熵变作为研究的自变量,对企业的继续并购有很强的预测能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchange established,more and more public corporations have taken part in mergers and acquisitions(M&A) through Chinese capital market.Thus many scholars have been concerned about what happened about M&A,and why so many corporations joined continiously,even how they could do better in M&A.The entropy theory announces that the development of material is negative.Entropy will development toward increment of direction in the closing of the system.But when enterprise becomes an open economy system,under the instruction of entropy theory,it will form a kind of spread structure.This kind of structure has two functions of negative feedback and positive feedback.Two functions can keep the enterprise off balanced appearance forever.Under this kind of appearance,the entropy of enterprise will be minimum.Based on the complex system of "enterprise-society-nature",the article starts to research.During my study,we use the entropy theory to analyse the characteristics of enterprise.We think that M&A is a better way to keep open,because it can absorb nagtive entropy and release positive entropy.M&A can break partly balanced kind,and exchange material and energy with the external world constantly.The motive of M&A is to pursue minimum entropy.Based on the entropy theory and enterprise characteristics,we have analysed the behavior of M&A.Holding the close contact of "enterprise-society-nature",the article has established serials of indexes based on the entropy theory.Some indexes are on entropy,some indexes are on category entropy,others are on financial indexes.In the meantime,we cluster and analyse whether these financial indexes are fit to category entropy.The result enunciates that what we have established is suitable.After dealing with these indexes scientifically,we can analyse the correlation between M&A and indexes.Even more,we can predict what the enterprise will happen about continuous M&A.First,we make use of parameter and non-parameter to exam the classification rationality between period merger type and continuous merger type.Second, we apply the logistic regression to exam the correlation between M&A and entropy change. Our examination indicates that their correlations are strong.For example,the tallest is to -19.499 and the lowest is to 4.567.At the end,we use the logistic regression to exam the predication of entropy change model.The examination appears that its predication is stronger than only constant model.Because the former is 88.3%,the latter is only 51.6%.So,we can conclude:Each public corporation which participates M&A can use four categories entropy to describe its characteristic and motive.Four categories entropy are oxidize entropy,revivification entropy,supported entropy and pressure entropy.The continuous M&A of each each public corporation is related with four categories entropy change.The four categories entropy have stronger prediction ability.更多还原