【作者】 陈建华；

【导师】 薛声家；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 风险投资以其高风险、高成长性和高预期回报的投融资方式,在推动高新技术的发展上发挥了巨大的作用。但在鼓励风险投资的同时,必须对其风险进行识别、跟踪评估和防范,以便适时采取投资修正措施,防范和减少风险。因此,系统地探讨风险投资项目中的风险有非常重要的实践意义和理论意义。文章首先在对风险投资项目中的风险因素进行分类研究的基础上,从数据收集、变量度量和分析方法等三方面阐述对关键风险因素的识别。在数据收集过程中,本研究采取了多种方式确保所收集数据的可靠性和有效性,包括科学合理地设计调查问卷、对问卷发放和回收过程的严格管理,尽可能排斥干扰因素的影响;在变量度量中,借鉴了国内外已有的相关理论和实证研究,确立被解释变量、解释变量的度量方法,保障变量度量的合理有效,并对测量模型进行检验,结果可以看出各变量的测度均满足信度和效度要求;在分析方法中,利用结构方程检验了嵌套模型是与数据拟合情况更为一致的模型,用路径分析说明了战略因素,生产及市场因素,融资因素和人因因素的直接影响效果和间接影响效果,以及这些因素相互作用对投资绩效的影响。结果显示投资环境,管理者的道德、代理风险,管理团队协调能力,资金需求规划,投资退出等因素是影响风险投资项目的关键风险因素。然后,在总结和回顾风险评估方法与工具的基础上,评价了现有各类方法的优缺点,说明风险投资项目中风险评估方法应具有的基本特征和要求条件,并鉴于面向目标风险评估的局限性,应用了面向活动的风险评估技术-风险矩阵技术,说明了风险矩阵技术对面向活动的项目风险评估所能起到的独特作用,并在关键风险因素识别的基础上,通过举例详细介绍了利用风险矩阵技术进行风险评估的过程。文章最后讨论了风险投资项目风险防范的原则和策略,从触发器原理、屏障分析、多层防御体系方面分析了动态防范体系的建立,应用CREAM追溯分析法对项目风险事件进行了全新的根原因追溯分析,并针对不同风险因素,探讨了风险控制的具体措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The venture capital investment with high risk, high growth and high expecting returns, plays a very important role in the development of new technology. But while encouraging the venture capital investment, we must identify its risk, evaluate its risk, and properly take measures to minimize or prevent its risk. Therefore, it is practical and theoretical forus to inquire systematically into the risk in venture capital project.Firstly, the paper classifies the risk factors in venture capital project, and expounds the identification of key risk factors from data collecting, variable measuring, analyzing methods, etc. In the course of data collecting, measures are taken to make sure the data are reliable and effective, including designing the questionnaire scientifically, and issuing and retrieving questionnaire strictly. In the variable measuring, consulting to related theories and verified research domestic and international, we establish the measurement of dependent variables and explanatory variables to ensure the validity of the variables. In the test of measure model, the results show the reliability and validity of the variables is high. In the course of analyzing, we test the nested-model by using Structure Equation Model, and the result verifies the nested-model is more fit with the data. With path analysis, the paper analyzes the direct and indirect influence of strategy, production and markets, financing and human factors on investment performance, and also analyzes the influence on investment performance because of the interaction among these factors. The findings show the investing environment, the managers’ ethical risk, agent risk, managing team’s coordinating ability, plan for funds demand, capital exit, etc, are the key factors that influence venture capital investments.Then on the basis of summarizing and reviewing risk evaluation technique, the paper evaluates the merits and demerits of current methods. It states what characteristics or requirements risk evaluation methods should have in venture capital projects. In view of the limitations of objective-oriented risk evaluation, the paper puts forward risk activity-oriented evaluation techniques - risk matrix techniques. It explains what unique function risk matrix techniques perform in project risk evaluation. Moreover, based on the key factor identification, the paper gives a detailed introduction with examples to risk matrix.Finally, the paper puts forward the principles and strategies of risk prevention in venture capital project. It expounds the building of the dynamic prevention system from the trigger principle, barrier analysis, and multiple defense system. It also makes an analysis of root causes retrospection to project risk by using the CREAM retrospection analysis. Furthermore, it discusses the concrete control measures to different risk factors.更多还原