【作者】 宋小芬；

【导师】 王岳平；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 国民经济学， 2008， 博士

【副题名】一个一般性原理及对中国工业化的分析

【摘要】 产业结构演进的一般性是指不同国家或地区的产业结构在形成和演变的过程中所共同遵循的规律(机制)以及由于这种规律(机制)的作用而使得它们在演变的过程表现出一些共同的、普遍的现象。产业结构演进的多样性则是指不同国家或地区的产业结构演进并不是沿着一条基本轨迹进行的,而是存在多种路径,无论是在时间,还是在结构特点上都有着较大差别。本文从分工演进角度把握产业结构演进的一般性规律和历史发展逻辑,从初始禀赋条件的多样性和不完全信息条件下经济主体决策的有限理性出发,主要基于路径依赖理论把握产业结构演进的多样性;最后在产业结构演进的一般性和多样性的双重视角下简要回顾了中国的工业化过程并提出了中国工业化的政策选择。本文的分析表明,产业结构演进实际上是一种存在着路径依赖的分工演进过程:产业结构是否能够良性演进主要取决于经济系统能否形成一系列有利于促进分工演进的条件,具体的说,取决于经济系统是否能够发展成为一种包含意识形态、技术和制度(开放条件下还包括国际贸易和国际投资等要素)在内的各种因素良性互动的有机系统,在该系统中,众多私人的和国家的动机混合起来促使意识形态、技术和制度的变迁以及政策实施大都朝着有利于提高交易效率,从而推进分工演进,使得产业结构不断朝着高级化的方向演进;存在着一个制度基础,是保证产业结构自发良性演进的基本条件,这就是自由价格和自由企业的市场制度;同时,由于自然条件初始禀赋条件的不同以及在此基础上发展起来的经济基础、制度安排、以及意识形态不同,经济主体决策的不确定性,全球化等因素使得各个地区产业结构演化的方向是不确定的,演化路径具有多样,由于路径依赖的存在,沿着既有的路径,工业化可能进入良性循环的轨道并迅速优化,也可能顺着原来的错误路径往下滑而进入“闭锁”状态,除非产业系统内部或外部条件出现重大改变;由于初始条件的不同和路径依赖自始至终的作用,对于不同的国家或地区来说,成功的演化在于如何把自己的传统与任何可能的模仿与创新结合起来,这对应着工业化可以具有不同的成功模式。在产业结构演进的一般性和多样性的双重视角下,中国新型工业化的政策选择主要包括:从结构模仿转向制度模仿和制度创新,继续深化市场体制改革;合理使用“产业政策”;逐步推进自由的国际贸易;完善交通运输等基础措施,以信息化促进产业化等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Generality of industrialization means there is an essential law that overrules industrialization,which brings about some common phenomenon in different countries’ industrialization.Diversify of industrialization means different country’s industry structure evolutes in different way.This thesis would both explain these two basic characteristics of industrialization:The first part would give a division of labor model to interpret generality of industrialization;the second part would modify the suppositions in the first part and build a new model to illustration diversify on the basis of path-dependent theory;the third part will analyze how the generality law display its function on Chinese industrialization and at the same time,in what way Chinese industrialization show its particular characteristic according to its resource, its history and its tradition,etc.The conclusions of this thesis are the fallowing as:Industrialization in its essence is a path-dependent process of labor division evolution.Firstly,industrial structure comes into being and develops corresponding to labor division evolution and all the countries would obey this generality law,and as a result share common phenomenon during their industrialization.This means deeply understanding labor division is crucial to clearly explain how an industrial structure evolves in the history,right now and in future.Secondly,industrialization is a path-dependent process which means different initial natural resource and uncertainty of the people’s choice will affect its evolution from the start to the end,which would finally leads to diversity of industrialization.Thirdly,path-dependent force may lead industrialization into a vicious circle road as it may lead industrialization into a good one.For a country,to get into a good circle road needs a right system which comprises a series of actors,including society conscious,technology,regulations, polices,etc and which,as a whole organic one,does good to labor division evolution. And what’s more,for a country,it is also important to take advantage of its resources and traditions to make its only successful industrialization pattern.Fourthly,all the successful industrialization patterns show that free market is the crucial system to ensure a good industrialization.And then a right constitution to balance the government power and so to reduce the state(nation) opportunism is vital to build a free market.Under the dual angle of view of generality and diversity,the most important thing for China is to carry on a government reform and to mature its poor efficient market;and on the other hand,it is also very important to consider a new industrialization pattern which suits to globalization,environmental protection and which just suits to Chinese feature.更多还原