【作者】 季泽；

【导师】 任辉；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【副题名】以农业类上市公司为例

【摘要】 会计盈余对投资者、债权人具有重要的决策价值,同时也是证券市场监管的重要参数。国内外一系列会计舞弊事件充分说明财务舞弊、过度盈余管理等诸多因素导致的盈余质量低下已经成为资本市场上的一个世界性难题。因而如何鉴别、评价盈余质量以防范舞弊和欺诈,保护投资者的合法权益,维护正常的市场秩序,已引起世界各国理论界、监管部门的高度关注。国际上对盈余质量的研究也就是近二十年来的事情,尤其是近年来,面对当前严重的舞弊现状,针对会计盈余质量的研究在国外学术界也得到了空前的重视。2002年1月,美国会计学会(AAA)专门设立“盈余质量”项目,对盈余质量的各个方面进行深入的研究。2003年在美国会计学会年会上,盈余质量又成为一个重点讨论课题。而我国对盈余质量的研究相对滞后,研究内容也不够深入和系统,相关研究领域亟需拓展。在我国目前条件下,财务舞弊、过度盈余管理导致盈余质量低劣,这种现象严重误导了投资者、债权人等相关利益者的决策,对企业的发展也造成了巨大的隐患,并制约了其可持续发展;同时也破坏了资本市场的正常秩序,降低了资本市场的资源配置效率,制约了整个国民经济的健康发展。因此,对上市公司盈余质量评析和治理相关的理论和实践问题进行深入的、系统的研究,已经成为目前财务界的一项重要而迫切的研究课题,具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。本文的研究内容和主要结论如下:(1)对会计盈余及盈余质量进行一般分析,为盈余质量的评析与治理进行理论上的梳理、分析和阐述。这主要包括“盈余”概念的发展、盈余质量的内涵、盈余信息的质量要求和盈余质量的影响因素等。在对经济收益、会计收益和全面收益等不同的收益概念进行分析后,对经济盈余观、信息观、现代计价观、决策有用观、契约观等与盈余质量评析的相关经济学理论进行了阐述,并分析这些理论对上市公司盈余质量的评析与治理产生的影响。本文对比分析了美国财务会计准则委员会(FASB)、国际会计准则委员会(IASC)①和我国会计准则对会计信息质量特征的相关规定,并对盈余质量的影响因素进行了归纳和分析,为进一步评析盈余质量打下基础。(2)探讨财务报告视角下的上市公司盈余质量评析问题。本文将盈余质量分析评价方法划分为定性分析、单指标定量分析法和多指标定量分析法三类,并分别进行说明。定性评价如霍金斯(Hawkins)的会计红旗法,通过对审计报告、资产负债表、利润及利润分配表、现金流量表以及会计报表附注中出现的危险信号识别手段来对企业盈余质量进行有效评价。基于财务报表的单指标定量分析法得出的盈余质量可称之为静态盈余质量,主要是强调某一时点上的分析,用于横向比较各上市公司的盈余质量,主要有盈余质量的现金保障性指标、持续性指标、结构性指标、安全性指标和成长性指标。为了克服单指标定量分析法无法综合评价公司盈余质量的缺陷,多指标定量分析法得以广泛运用。这主要包括盈余质量的时间序列比较、因子分析法、模型评价和模型评价。(3)对上市公司盈余质量的评价和价值相关性进行实证研究。首先,以非正常性应计利润为基础对盈余质量进行度量。在确定非正常性应计利润上,本文采取Dechow & Dichev模型和基本John模型进行计量,由此相应地得到盈余质量的两个表证变量。然后,将盈余质量变量加入价格模型(费森—奥尔森模型),利用中国农业类上市公司「2003,2007」连续5年的现金流数据,考察2004年、2005年和2006年的农业类上市公司的盈余质量以及股价相关性。实证研究发现,尽管我国的股票市场在一定程度上能够识别净利润中的营业利润与“线下项目”成分,但在盈余质量(营业利润质量)的定价方面存在市场紊乱行为,从而为中国证券市场尚未达到“半强式有效”提供了侧面证据。(4)探讨上市公司盈余质量治理问题,即如何治理盈余质量低劣,及如何提升盈余质量水平。该部分的核心问题是提出并构建了治理盈余质量的三位一体多元化治理机制。从影响盈余的形成规则、基础环境、监管规制三个方面展开,构建盈余质量的三位一体多元治理机制。即盈余质量形成规则治理——完善会计及税法体系;盈余质量基础环境治理——完善公司内部制度安排;盈余质量监管规制治理——完善市场监管规制。在此之后,对农业上市公司发展及盈余质量的提高提出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important parameter of securities market supervision, accounting earnings possess significant decision value. A series of accounting corruption events completely indicate that low earnings quality, which results from the financial corruption, earnings over-management etc, has become a world wide crux in capital market. Hence, the theoretical research and supervisory departments have come to pay highly attention on how to identify, evaluate and prevent corruptions and frauds, how to protect legal equity of investors as well as uphold normal market order.It has been about twenty years since earnings quality have been studied internationally, especially in recent years. Under the conditions of current terrible corruption; the study focusing on accounting earnings quality have been paid unprecedented heed in foreign academic circles.On January 2002, the American Accounting Association built up a item as“earnings quality”, and then proceeded with further study on every aspect of earnings quality. In the AAA’s 2003 Annual Meeting, earnings quality became a subject need to be discussed emphatically again. However, the researches of earnings quality in China lag behind relatively, the content of the research is not enough systematic and in-depth and the related study field is required to be extended as possible as we can.In view of current circumstances, low earnings quality which results from financial corruption and earnings management seriously not only mislead the decision of stakeholders such as investors, creditors etc, but also hold back the development of enterprises and constrain sustainable development; meanwhile, ruin the normal orders in capital market, lower the resource allocation efficiency in capital market as well as prevent from nicely development of the whole national economy. Consequently, as a crucial and urgent study subject, the further and systematic researches of theoretical and practical issues, which is relative to evaluation and analysis of earnings quality in listed companies, implying enormous significance to theory and practice. The main contents and conclusions of this thesis are as follows:1.On the basis of general analysis of accounting earnings and earnings quality, the author concentrates on the analysis and statement in theory for further evaluation and governance of earnings quality,including the development of the concept of earnings, the content of earnings quality, the quality characteristic requirement and the influenced factors of earnings quality. The author analysis different concepts of return such as economic return, accounting return and overall one, states the economic theory related to the evaluation, including economic earnings perspective, information perspective, modern valuation perspective, decision-making relevant perspective, contract perspective, and analysis the effects which these theories have made on evaluation and governance of earnings quality of listed companies. In terms of the characters of accounting information quality, the author compares with relative rules among FASB, IASC and Chinese Accounting Standards. After that, the author summarizes and analyzes the influenced factors of earnings quality, which lays a foundation for additional evaluation and analysis of earnings quality.2.From the view of financial report, the author mainly discusses the evaluation and analysis of earnings quality. The analyzed and evaluated methods of earnings quality are divided into three types: the qualitative analysis, single variable analysis and multi-variable one. The qualitative analysis such as Hawkins’accounting red flag, evaluates earnings quality through identifying the danger signals of the audit report, balance sheet, profit statement, statement of profit distribution, cash flow statement and the appended note to the accounting statement. The earnings quality evaluated through the single variable analysis can be called as static earnings quality, mainly emphasizes the analysis on time point, can comparative the earnings quality of listed companies horizontally, including security on cash index, the indication of sustainable development index, the structural index, the security index and the growth index. The single variable analysis can’t evaluate the defects of listed companies comprehensively, so the multi-variable analysis is used extensively, including the time sequence comparison, the factor analysis method, the Dechow & Dichev model and the John model.3.Focus on the value relevance of earnings quality. Firstly, our measure of earnings quality is based on abnormal accruals. So through Dechow & Dichev model and John model, we obtain two proxy variables of earnings quality. And then, the author import this two proxy variables into price model ( Feltham-Ohlson model), and through financial data of Chinese agricultural listed companies in the year 2004, 2005 and 2006, explore the relation between stock price and quality of earnings. our research indicates: although in the sense market can identify different components of net income, for example, profit from operating and bottom-line income, capital market exist mis-pricing behavior on quality of earnings ( profit from operating ). It indicates China’s securities market isn’t reach the state of“semi-power efficient”.4.Focus on the issue of earnings quality governance. Two aspects are discussed: how to govern the inferior earnings quality as well as how to improve earnings quality. Additionally, the key issue in this part is to raise a proposal that a multi-body earnings quality governance mechanism is a feasible solution. The author analyzes the norms development, fundamental environment and supervision regulation in terms of forming and affecting earnings quality governance of listed firms, and creates a tri-body multiple earnings quality governance mechanism which consists of three spheres: (1) the rules governance of earnings quality----the improvement and implementation of accounting standards; (2) the basic environment governance of earnings quality---- to improve corporate internal system arrangement; (3) supervision governance of earnings quality----the improvement and implementation of supervising regulations. After that, the author gives suggestions on the development of agricultural listed companies and the improvement of their earnings quality.更多还原