【作者】 黄文清；

【导师】 张俊飚；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 “一退两还”(即退耕还林还草)是我国于世纪之交在西部地区实施的一项战略性措施,不仅对西部区域经济发展,而且对全国经济与社会发展将产生深远影响。由于“一退两还”工程实施区绝大部分是经济发展水平低下、生态环境十分恶劣、人地关系严重失调的山区、丘陵区以及荒漠区,使得该工程在客观上便具有了生态环境建设与经济结构调整的双重性质。然而这个双重性质却难以通过西部落后地区自身的循环来实现,必须在强大的外部力量的推动下来促使“退得下、还得上、保得住、不反弹”格局的全面建立。为此,中央政府特出台了以经济补偿为核心的“一退两还”政策,确保了该工程的良好运行。但是,由于该工程是一项关系农业产业结构调整、粮食安全保障、农民脱贫致富和生态环境治理的系统工程,涉及面广、政策性强、操作难度大,其生态目标要求其政策必须保证这项工程长期有效的实施,否则既达不到预期目标,又浪费大量人力、物力。与此同时,大量的分析研究发现,在实际操作中尤其在耕地保护与粮食安全问题带来的压力下,“一退两还”政策的持续稳定性受到冲击。第一个“258”补偿期即将结束时,退还地区还存在着较为严重的新旧结构的衔接与均衡问题,生态与经济难以在短期内实现良性循环。因此,建立可持续的补偿机制,便显得十分必要。为此,在按照既定政策解决好目前补偿问题的同时,应加强对补偿期结束后的预期研究,即探讨后补偿问题,以便从整体上完善“一退两还”政策,增强政策整合后的整体效用和长期效用,以保证“一退两还”生态目标的最终实现。这对于奠定西部地区的发展基础,为东中部地区的社会经济发展创造良好的生态空间,并由此引领国民经济的健康、持续、协调发展,无疑具有重大意义。后补偿作为一种在现行的既定补偿政策效用期结束后根据发展需要而采取的再补偿形式,与现行补偿政策相比,其未来实施既是对既定政策的一种继续,也是对政策在更大范围内的调整与完善。由于二者在背景、对象与环境等方面已存在差异,后补偿与现行补偿相比,在补偿标准、补偿主客体、补偿方式与途径等方面也应存在区别。如现行补偿侧重于对目前工程项目的贯彻和落实,属于任务型,而后补偿则应从促使和实现退还地区可持续发展以及确保退还效益和彻底解决退还过程中的深层次问题的角度出发,更侧重于制度型。这对西部地区在退还工程中有效维护国家宏观目标的实现,同时促使区域经济和农户个体目标的顺利达成,实现西部地区的脱贫和可持续发展,具有重要的意义与价值。论文的基本框架可以分为四大部分共计十章内容。各部分的主要内容如下:第一部分为全文的引子,包括第1、2、3章。其主要内容与结论为:(1)概述了本研究的时代背景与选题意义,评述了国内外相关研究的发展动态,重点对生态重建与经济发展的关系以及“一退两还”补偿问题进行了系统梳理与归纳。提出了研究思路、研究方法、研究假设、研究内容和创新点,并对研究中使用的数据来源进行了说明;(2)重点运用公共物品与外部性理论、自然资源价值理论、马克思社会再生产理论、效率与公平理论、制度变迁理论等主要原理对西部地区实施“一退两还”经济补偿的必要性进行了深入分析,在为现行的“一退两还”补偿机制的实施提供理论依据的同时,也为全面构建“一退两还”后补偿机制奠定了坚实的理论基础;(3)从整体上对西部地区实施“一退两还”生态补偿机制的生态和经济背景进行了分析,并借用生态与经济协调发展观,从理论上论证了“一退两还”生态补偿机制对西部地区实现生态改善和经济发展具有极为重要的积极作用。第二部分为本文的主体,由4、5、6三章构成。(1)采用描述性统计分析法、综合指数评价法和偏离.份额分析法(SSM)等多种方法,以调查的截面数据和农村固定观察点1992-2006年的时序数据为基础,对西部地区“一退两还”补偿机制的实施效果进行了分析,从实证上论证了“一退两还”补偿机制的实施对西部地区生态改善与经济发展发挥了极其重要的作用,同时也揭示了该机制所存在的诸多缺陷及其对预期目标实现的影响;(2)从理论上分析了切实巩周“一退两还”成果的关键在于建立新的产业结构。并在此基础上,确立了西部地区新产业结构得以构建的评价指标体系,并运用灰色预测模型对其进行了预测,得知在既定补偿机制下西部地区真正构建起新的具有良性循环的产业结构,需要到2020年左右,并且急需大量的农业投入以及非农产业的快速发展;(3)通过借鉴美国、欧洲等国家和地区在“一退两还”补偿过程中的主要经验,构建了西部地区“一退两还”后补偿机制的理论框架,并将该理论框架确定为两个组成部分:由公共财政补偿手段和市场化补偿手段构成的“一退两还”生态效益补偿制度及其配套支撑体系。第三部分包括第7、8、9三章,为本研究的落脚点。其主要内容与结论为:(1)基于公共财政补偿的视角,对进一步完善生态补偿的原则、补偿主体与对象的范畴、补偿额度与期限、补偿资金筹集渠道与补偿方式等进行了探讨,并运用条件价值评估法(CVM),评估出处于长江中游的武汉市居民对“一退两还”提供的生态效益的支付意愿为103.10-175.76元/(a·户);(2)基于市场手段补偿的视角,通过借鉴国际上森林生态效益市场化补偿的主要经验,并结合“一退两还”工程实施情况,认为可以通过开展碳汇贸易、森林水文服务交易、建设生物柴油原料林基地等3种市场化手段来获得生态建设的补偿资金;(3)基于政策整合后的整体功能大于单个政策的局部功能的视角,从生态建设和反贫困的角度分析了西部地区“一退两还”后补偿的配套支撑体系,为早日将“一退两还”后补偿机制贯彻实施并保证其顺利运行提供经济、制度、政策和法律保障。第四部为第10章,为全文的结论部分。在前文的基础上,重点归纳了本研究的主要思想,揭示了本文的创新性及其不足,并展望了未来进一步研究的设想。通过以上章节内容的分析,可以归纳出本文可能的创新点:1.研究视角上,直接从西部地区的经济条件和生态区位的现实情况出发,将目标定位在我国既定“一退两还”补偿政策实施期结束后西部落后地区的发展及其生态建设长期效用的巩固上,并对如何实施后期补偿进行较为系统的研究,从而使本研究视角具有一定的新颖性,为研究成果的前瞻性奠定了基础。2.研究方法上,直接引入了灰色系统方法对西部退还地区构建新产业结构所需的时长和资源量进行了科学的预测,得到在既定补偿机制下西部地区需要到2020年左右才有可能真正构建起新的具有良性循环的产业结构,并且急需大量的农业投入以及非农产业的快速发展。同时,引入了CVM条件评估方法,评估出处于长江中游的武汉市居民对“一退两还”提供的生态效益的支付意愿为103.10.175.76元/(a·户)。3.研究结论上,通过分析证实了西部退还地区在既定补偿期结束时难以达到预期目标和构建起新产业结构,并提出了“一退两还”后补偿机制的概念,以及西部退还地区在既定发展环境与条件下新产业结构得以构建所需的时间与资源量。此外,本文在优化“一退两还”公共政财补偿途径的同时,重点提出了碳汇贸易、森林水文服务交易及生物柴油原料林生产基地建设等三种“一退两还”市场化补偿途径,并增加了配套支撑体系的分量,从而为全面深化、拓展和完善生态补偿理论以及贫困地区的发展理论做出了一定贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 Conversion of Farmland to Forestry and Grassland(CFFG), the strategic measure in the west in the turn of the century, not only promotes the local economic development, but also produces profound influence upon the economical and social development of the whole country. Most of CFFG implementation areas are mountains, hills or deserts, with poor economic development, bad ecological environment, severe imbalance between human being & land, serious soil erosion or high-level desertification, so this project objectively constructs both ecological environment and economic reconstruction. However, this dual construction is difficult to carry out through the self-recycling of the western poor areas themselves. Only the external powerful forces can comprehensively establish the configuration to "draw back, repay, preserve and not bound". For this reason, central government specially released CFFG policy with the economical compensation as the core to guarantee it will work well. It is a systematic project relating to industry reconstruction, food security guarantee, the farmers’ casting off poverty & prosperity and ecological environment controlling. Its influences are broad, and its operation is difficult. Its ecology goal requests that the policy guarantee long-term effective implementation. Otherwise it will not achieve the anticipated target and wastes massive manpower and resources. According to large amount of analyses, the continuous stability of CFFG is under the impact, especially under the pressure brought by the farming protection and the food security problem. In the first recumbent period of "258", the new and the old structure need to connect and keep balance. Ecology and economy are difficult to realize positive recycling in short terms. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a sustainable compensation mechanism.We should strengthen the anticipated research for the compensation period and discuss post-compensation issue based on the fixed policy, in order to integrally perfect CFFG, strengthen the long-term utility of the policy & final realization of the ecological goals. It is no doubt to say that it has great significance in establishing the development foundation of the west, creating a good ecological space for the economical development in the mid-east, as well as leading the national economy to develop healthily, continually and harmoniously.Compared with the active policy, post-compensation is a re-compensation form implemented after the active compensation, as a sequel and an adjustment of the policy in a large rextension.With differences in background, target, and environment, post-compensa- tion varies from the active compensation in the standard, number, measure, method and so on. For example, the active compensation pays more attention to the implementation and effect of projects, which belongs to mission pattern, while post-compensation places extra emphasis on promoting and realizing sustainable development in returning areas, which belongs to institution pattern (i.e. establishing compensation mechanism comprehensively). It is vital and valuable in effectively maintaining the country’s macroscopic project in the west, in promoting the success for both the regional economy and individual peasant household, and in anti-poverty and sustainable development.This dissertation consists of four parts and ten chapters. The main ideas of each part are as follows:The first part consists of three chapters acting as the introduction. Its main idea and conclusion are:(1)Summarize the backgrounds and the significance of this thesis, commentate the development trends of all the relevant researches both in China and overseas, highlight the relationship between the ecological reconstruction and poverty ease, order and conclude the compensate problems about the CFFG put forward the research ideas, research methods, research suppositions and research contents, explain the data used in the research; (2) Use many important main theories, such as the theory of public goods and externality, the theory of the value of the natural resources, the theory of the Marxist social reproduction, the theory of efficiency and fairness, the theory of institutional change, to analyze the necessity of carrying out the CFFG’s financial compensation in depth, thus provide the current CFFG compensation mechanism with theoretical bases and lay a solid theoretical foundation for constructing a CFFG post-compensation mechanism in an-all round way; (3)With the theory of ecologically and economically harmonious development, review the ecological and economic background about the CFFG as a whole, prove that the CFFG plays a positive role in improving the environment and the economic development in the west.The second part is made up of the fourth, fifth, and sixth chapter, as the main part of the essay. Its chief content and conclusions are : (1)Further prove that the conduction of CFFG compensatory regulation has played an important role in ecological improvement and economic growth in the western poor area, analyze the practical effects of the current CFFG compensation mechanism by manipulating various means such as descriptive statistics analysis, comprehensive index evaluation and SSM, by using the cross-section data we investigated and the time-series data we stemmed from the permanent observation location during 1992 to 2006 in rural areas, realize that this regulation has many defects preventing its function to the full, and restricts to strengthen the CFFG achievement and the attainment of the predictive goal;(2)Theoretically analyze the key to effectively solidify the outcome of CFFG lies in the adjustment of industrial structure into a more distinguishing standard, upon which we assure western area of the establishment of the evaluation-index system in new industrious structure ,apply the grey predictive model to predict that it is not until 2020 that we can see apparent effects on the adjustment of industrious structure and authentic establishment of new industrious structure on the condition of CFFG into practice in urgent need of productive materials and the inputs to the development of non-agriculture production;(3) Learn CFFG experience from America, Europe, Costa Rica, and Brazil to construct the theoretical structure in western area and divide it into two sections: CFFG composed of market-oriented compensation and public financial compensation, and the supporting system of compensation coming after the CFFGThe third part includes chapters 7, 8 and 9 as the ultimate result of this research. The main content and the conclusion are:(1)Base on government’s public financial compensation to further highlight and improve the CFFG principle,the category of compensatory subject and object,the compensatory limitation and period,the compensation fund raising channels and other methods,use the CVM to predict that residents in the middle stream of the Yangtze River in Wuhan city of Hubei province are willing to pay from 103.10 to 175.76 Yuan / (a·households)for the ecological benefits ;(2) Based on the market compensation and the international experience of forest eco-efficiency market compensation, we believe that we can obtain compensation funds by carrying out carbon trade and forest service transactions, and building a bio-diesel raw materials forest bases to get market compensation funds in reference of the CFFG project in the western poverty-stricken areas; (3) Based on the overall function of the integrated policy superior to the function of the single policy, we analyze the CFFG post-compensation supporting system from the angle of ecological construction and anti-poverty in the western areas to provide economical, institutional, policy and legal protection for trouble-free running at an early date.PartⅣis Chapter 10 as the conclusion. Based on the previous analysis, this section summarizes the main idea of this study, and reveals the creativity and short-comings of the paper, and outlooks further researches in the future.Through the analysis on the above sections, the creativities can be summed up in this essay : (1) The research directly focuses on the development of the west after implementing CFFG and the consolidation of CFFG long-tern effect. It also has a systematic and comprehensive description about the post-compensation implementation. So the research version is creative, and lays a foundation for the pioneering results.(2) The research uses multi-disciplinary theory and various quantitative analysis method to discuss the details of the CFFG compensation policy in the west. Especially, It is not until 2020 that we can see apparent effects on the adjustment of industrious structure and authentic establishment of new industrious structure on the condition of CFFG into practice in urgent need of productive materials and the inputs to the development of non-agriculture production by using GM(1,1). At the same time, the research also uses CVM to predict that residents in the middle stream of the Yangtze River in Wuhan city of Hubei province are willing to pay from 103.10 to 175.76 Yuan / (a·households)for the ecological benefits.(3) The research comes to the conclusion that the industrial structure adjustment in the west can’t reach the expected target and the new industrial structure has not been built in the first 258 compensation period.Based on theses, the research brings up a concept of CFFG post-compensation mechanism,and predict the time and resoursce for the industrial structure adjustment in the west region to carry out CFFG project,to make remarkable achievements under the existing developmental environment and circumstance. Additionally, the research attends to improve the mean of CFFG compensation by Public Finance, especially it discusses carbon trade,forest service transactions, and building a bio-diesel raw materials forest bases to get market compensation funds in reference of the CFFG project in the western areas.At the same time, it increases ponderance of the supporting system of CFFG post-compensation. As a result, it helps to deepen, expand and improve the ecologic compensation theory and the development theory for the poor areas as well.更多还原