【作者】 陈士军；

【导师】 顾培亮；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 进入新世纪以来,农业可持续发展问题已经成为全球探讨的热点和重点。作为一种新的发展观、新的发展理念和发展战略,农业可持续发展已通过联合国环境与发展大会,被世界不同意识形态,不同社会制度和不同信仰的许多国家所接受。农业可持续发展研究趋向于多学科交叉,围绕同一个主题在理论上逐步融合。近些年来,许多国内外专家学者对农业可持续发展问题进行了大量的研究探讨,取得了一定的研究成果。但大多是采用定性分析和简单的定量分析方法,从而不能很好地体现农业可持续发展的本质。本文认为,农业可持续发展问题是一个由农业经济、技术、生态和农村社会等多方面因素组成的多层次、多目标、动态开放的复杂系统,具有很强的随机不确定性和灰色特性等非线性特征。因此,将利用随机分析、神经网络、灰色系统等系统分析理论方法对其进行科学的研究探讨。全文共包括七章:第一章,主要分析了农业可持续发展产生的思想背景、基本概念,并提出了本文关于这一概念的定义及内涵特征,综述了国内外关于农业可持续发展的基本研究现状及所存在的主要问题,给出了本文的研究框架及主要内容。第二章,利用复杂系统分析的基本原理,对农业可持续问题进行了比较全面的系统分析。具体地包括农业可持续发展系统的基本组成要素及相互作用、系统的目标、基本特点和系统论研究方法等。第三章,通过对可持续农业内涵、外延及影响农业可持续发展因素的研究,提出了我国区域农业可持续发展评价指标体系的构建原则,目标与模式。第四章,研究分析了农业可持续发展系统的持续协同机制,主要包括系统持续协同的基本内涵、动力机制和信息反馈等内在机制。第五章,研究分析了农业可持续发展系统持续性与协同性的定量化问题。首先利用功效函数方法对系统现阶段的持续性状况进行定量化分析评价;其次,利用灰色系统动态模型、灰色关联分析模型、神经网络模拟等方法建立农业可持续发展系统的协同度计算模型,对该系统的协同性进行了定量化研究。第六章,利用文中所提出的理论方法对黑龙江垦区农业可持续发展问题进行了实证研究,并提出了对策建议。第七章,全文的总结与展望,指出进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sustainable development of agriculture has become the focus in the world into the new century. As a new development theory, idea and strategy, the sustainable development of agriculture has accepted by different ideology, social system and belief in different countries after it had appeared in the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The study on the sustainable development of agriculture, which has multi-interdisciplinary trend, is a merging process on one topic. In recent years, many experts and researchers has made a lot of study on the sustainable development of agriculture at home and abroad. Although the research has got some achievements, the research almost used the qualitative analysis and simply quantitative analysis so that it cannot reflects the essence of the sustainable development of agriculture. The sustainable development of agriculture is a multi-objective, multi-level dynamic, and open complex system made up by many factors such as agricultural economy, technology, and agricultural society. These kinds of problems have strong random uncertainty and grey characteristics. In this matter, the paper uses some theory and method of system analysis such as the random analysis, the grey system to do scientific study. There are seven chapters in this paper: The first chapter: the background, the basic concept, the connotation and characteristics of the sustainable development of agriculture are proposed, the recent research on the sustainable development of agriculture and the problems are discussed, and the research framework and main content are given.The second chapter: an overall systematic analysis of the sustainable agriculture of agriculture is described by the basic theory of complex system, including the basic factors and interactions, system objectives, basic characteristics and research methods of system theory.The third chapter: the building discipline, aim and model of the evaluation index system of the sustainable development of regional agriculture are put forward by the study of the connotation and denotation of the sustainable agriculture and factors of development of the sustainable agriculture.The fourth chapter: the sustainable synergetic mechanism of sustainable agriculture system is studied, which consists of inner mechanism such as basic connotation, dynamic mechanism and information feedback.The fifth chapter: the quantification problems of sustainability and simulation of the sustainable development of agriculture are analyzed. Firstly the quantitative analysis and evaluation on the recent systematic sustainability by power function; then the collaborative calculation model of the sustainable development of agriculture is built by grey system dynamic model, grey correlation analysis model and neural network simulation.The sixth chapter: the empirical study of sustainable development of reclamation area in Heilongjiang province is posed by the theoretical method in this paper, and the countermeasures and suggestions are provided.The seventh chapter: the main conclusion and outlook are summarized and the future research direction is pointed out.更多还原