【作者】 运怀立；

【导师】 唐万生；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化和信息化程度的提高,以及我国加入WTO和经济的持续高速发展,企业的经营风险越来越引起人们的关注。企业要在激烈的市场竞争中求得生存与发展,要在各种风险中立于不败之地,必须充分认识到企业面临的各种风险,建立正常的企业风险管理机制,并及时采取有效的防范措施。对企业进行风险管理就是采用系统的、规范的方法对企业风险进行识别、衡量和控制,以最小的成本使风险所致的各种损失降到最低程度。本文的选题来源是“济南钢铁集团管理决策支持系统”课题,在深入分析济钢集团企业风险管理现状及我国钢铁企业风险管理存在的问题与不足的基础上,对现代钢铁企业全面风险的辨识、评价、预警及控制等各个环节进行了研究,同时就如何开展现代钢铁企业的全面风险管理给出了合理的建议和对策。本文的主要研究内容如下:第一,根据风险管理的一般理论,风险管理一般要经过风险辨识、风险评估、风险预警和风险控制四个阶段,其中前两个阶段是风险管理的基础。本文通过分析现代钢铁企业全面风险辨识的机理及特征,提出了三维嵌入式结构风险模糊辨识方法。第二,通过将模糊变量引入到传统的故障树分析(Fault Tree Analysis, FTA)方法中,提出了一种新的模糊故障树分析方法,并将其应用于企业风险分析来解决企业全面风险分析中涉及的不确定性问题。第三,提出了监测手段和预警机制,以实现对企业全面风险的动态监控。通过分析现代钢铁企业全面风险预警的机理,进一步提出了基于模糊模拟的层次分析法用于确定企业的预警等级,并提出了针对不同风险种类的控制措施。第四,本文以济南钢铁集团为案例,提出了现代钢铁企业全面风险管理的流程和对策,对我国钢铁企业提升风险管理意识、提高风险管理效率、丰富风险管理实践经验是有益的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Enterprises’risk has been concerned more and more, with the economy globalization and informationization, especially after we have entered the WTO. With the development of our Socialist market economy, the operating environment for our enterprises gets more and more complicated and their risks accelerate. In order to develop in the competition, the enterprises must know clearly about their risks, found the well-balanced risks management system, take the effective preventive measures and minimize the loss made by the risks.This dissertation has its origin of the question for study“Management decision-making support system in Jinan Steel Group”. Based on the analysis for the problems existing in the risks management in the Steel group, the dissertation makes a deep study on the discrimination, assessment, warning and controlling of the Group’s risks, and also puts forward to the reasonable suggestions and countermeasures for how to manage the overall risks in steel enterprises. The major contents are described as follows:Firstly, the risk management has four phases: risk discrimination, assessment, warning and controlling, by the theory of risk management. The former two phases are the basis of the risk management. The dissertation proposes 3-dimensional fuzzy measure model by analyzing the mechanism and characteristics of the overall risks discrimination in steel enterprises.Secondly, the dissertation proposes a new fuzzy fault tree analysis (FTA) method by introducing fuzzy variables into the traditional FTA. Then the method is applied to the overall risks analysis of enterprises for solving the problems with uncertainties.Thirdly, the dissertation provides the inspection ways and warning mechanism to monitor dynamicly the overall risks analysis of enterprises. Furthermore, by analyzing the mechanism of the overall risks warning in steel enterprises, the dissertation proposes analytic hierarchy process based on fuzzy simulation to determine the warning grades, and provides the controlling measures for different kinds of risks.Finally, by citing Jinan Steel Group, the dissertation puts forward to the process and the countermeasures of the overall risk managements in the steel enterprises, which is meaningful to improve the risks awareness and the risks management efficiency, and to enrich the practical experiences of the risks management.更多还原