未被观测经济估算方法与应用研究

【作者】 徐蔼婷；

【导师】 苏为华；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工商大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 GDP是反映国民经济总量的核心指标,在官方统计和经济分析中处于主导地位。理论上,GDP应是对所有符合国民经济核算准则的产品与服务规模的真实度量,然而诸多研究却显示,有相当一部分经济活动并未被核算到GDP指标之中。这部分应该核算而未被核算的经济被统称为“未被观测经济(Non-observedEconomy,简称NOE)”。各国实践表明,NOE已发展成一种国际现象,它的存在给国民经济体系的各个层面带来了不可忽视的影响。鉴于此,采取科学有效的手段来治理和引导NOE是各国政府面临的大事之一,而解决这一大事的前提则是准确掌握NOE整体规模和NOE具体结构信息,这就需要借助科学有效的估算方法。19世纪中下叶以来,NOE估算方法一直是国际学术领域的研究热点之一。诸多专家和权威国际机构都在为提出合理的方法而不懈努力,也取得了显著成果。然而,一方面由于NOE呈现出隐蔽性、复杂性、区域性、交叉性等特征,使得现有的佔算方法常常顾此失彼,难以准确定位;另一方面,不同研究者出于不同的研究初衷。借助不同的方法对同一对象的估算结果常常出现较大分歧;此外,NOE整体规模估算方法研究已引起了较多关注,而对NOE分类规模估算方法的研究却相对忽视,致使NOE估算方法理论体系不甚完善。因此,对目前已有的NOE整体规模估算方法进行梳理、归类、评价,并对NOE分类规模估算方法开展研究,无疑具有重大的理论和现实意义。中国NOE规模估算始于20世纪末。此后,尽管多种估算方法应用到NOE规模的估算实践中,但与国外研究相比,国内所运用的方法还比较落后,并缺乏中国特色的估算方法。因此,系统、深入地总结和归纳国外的NOE规模估算方法,选择可行的方法应用于中国NOE规模的估算实践中,并开展具有中国特色估算方法的研究,不仅对我国国民经济核算研究具有重大的理论意义,更是全面掌握我国国民经济现状,实现经济继续快速、健康发展的充要条件。本着“探讨理论基础、借鉴国外经验、注重中国特色、完善方法体系”的指导思想,本文在考察NOE内涵、NOE估算方法及各类方法的典型化应用的基础上,综合运用宏观经济学、国民经济学、计量经济学等知识,遵从“明确估算对象→阐述估算方法→进行实际估算”的思路展开研究。同时,全文强调“三个研究结合”,分别是"NOE国外估算方法借鉴与中国特色研究相结合”,“NOE整体规模估算方法研究与分类规模估算方法研究相结合”,“NOE估算理论方法与实际估算分析相结合”。基于此,全文分为八章:第一章为NOE基本理论。本章致力于明晰估算对象,解析NOE整体内涵和分类内涵,并对影响NOE产生和发展的各类因素进行分析,为后续的研究奠定了方法论基础。从对形形色色称谓、内涵及判定标准的分析出发,本章给出了立足于SNA视角的NOE定义,分析了NOE的生产范围及生产主体;同时,本章还阐述了NOE分类项——地下生产、非法生产、非正规部门生产、住户部门自身最终使用的生产、数据搜集误差而遗漏生产的统计定义,分析了各分类项在SNA中的逻辑地位;最后,本章对决定和影响NOE产生和发展的各类因素进行了详细地分析,为NOE估算方法的准确提出提供了理论依据。第二章为国外NOE整体规模估算方法。本章致力于对目前国际上流行的NOE整体规模估算方法进行系统介绍、归类及评析。目前来看,国际上对NOE整体规模估算的流行方法主要分为两类——调查类方法和间接估算类方法。调查类方法主要包括NOE专项调查法和税收审查法两类:间接估算类方法主要包括货币测量法、收支测量法、物量投入测量法、非货币测量法、潜变量法和劳动力投入法六类。本章围绕各种方法的出处、估算思路或估算过程、应用条件及应用现状展开阐述,并详细分析了各种方法的优缺点。同时,对国际上关于各种方法的最新研究进展进行了追踪,如Bhattacharyya法、消费者支出单一方程法、消费者支出系统法、改进的KK法等。最后,本章对NOE整体规模估算方法体系进行了全面总评。第三章为国外NOE分类规模估算方法。本章致力于对目前国际上流行的NOE分类规模估算方法进行系统地介绍、归类和评析。本章内容围绕“地下生产规模估算方法”、“非正规部门生产规模估算方法”、“非法生产规模估算方法”三个主题展开论述,对地下产品支出调查法、地下生产劳动力调查法、地下生产意见调查法、非正规部门劳动力调查法、非正规部门家庭收入与支出调查法、非正规部门企业调查法、非正规部门住户企业混合调查法、住户调查附加非正规部门企业模块调查法、多目标综合调查法等方法的设计原理、重难点、应用条件、优缺点、典型运用情况进行了详细地阐述和评价。同时,本章还以“毒品生产规模”、“卖淫服务生产规模”为例,探讨了非法生产规模估算的基本途径。国际经验表明,对NOE分类规模的估算主要借助于直接调查法,而间接估算法则并不常用。第四章为中国NOE形成机理。本章致力于解决三个问题,分别是“对中国NOE的认识”、“中国NOE形成原因探讨”和“中国NOE形成机理探讨”。基于NOE基本理论及特殊的中国国情,我们重点阐述了NOE的中国特色,论述了中国NOE的影响因素及形成机理,为中国NOE规模估算方法的合理选择和科学构建奠定理论和现实基础。第五章为中国NOE规模估算方法研究现状。本章围绕“中国NOE整体规模估算方法研究现状”和“中国NOE分类规模估算方法研究现状”两个主题,对国内有关NOE规模估算方法的研究现状进行了全面考察。在具体的论述过程中,我们罗列了中国NOE规模估算的各种文献,对文献中借助的估算方法追溯来源,并分析了各方法在中国应用的可行性,探讨了各学者在NOE估算方法研究领域所作的贡献。通过对目前我国NOE规模估算方法研究现状的客观评价,充分体现了国内研究与国际经验的差距,从而明确了中国NOE规模估算方法研究的改进及创新方向。第六章为中国NOE整体规模估算方法改进与创新。本章致力于探讨适合中国国情的NOE整体规模估算方法,并对历年NOE整体规模进行估算。在估算方法的选择上,我们重点探讨了间接估算方法的原理及应用。一方面,在借鉴国外流行方法的基础上,我们着力进行了国外方法的改进和完善,使之体现“中国特色”。如通过指标的筛选和甄别,我们改进了货币需求法,拟合了中国的Tanzi模型,给出了Tanzi模型的全对数方程和半对数方程;我们分析了国民账户收支测量法在中国应用的可行性;我们首次将MIMIC模型法应用到中国的NOE规模估算实践中,并结合经济普查数据,得出了历年NOE整体规模的估算值。另一方面,根据中国NOE的形成机理、运行特征、与官方经济的关系及中国统计数据的基础条件,我们提出了若干种创新方法。如根据货币供给的“中国之谜”,开创性地提出了从超额货币量分解出NOE的两种思路,提出了“超额货币分解法”,得到了我国历年NOE整体规模的估算;基于全社会资金流动理论,提出了从住户部门资金收支差异中估算NOE整体规模的思路,提出了“住户部门资金收支测量法”,并进行了实际估算。同时,本章对借助不同方法得到的估算结果进行了对比和分析。第七章为中国NOE分类规模估算方法创新。在这一章我们以非正规部门未被观测生产为例,对非正规部门未被观测生产规模的估算方法进行了探讨。本章始于基本范畴的界定,在分析了非正规部门未被观测生产的统计定义、判断标准及生产边界之后,我们一方面结合中国现行的统计调查体系和非正规部门的经济特征,重点探讨了借助直接调查法来估算我国非正规部门未被观测生产规模的可行性,给出了以人口普查为依托的非正规部门未被观测生产规模非专项调查、以经济普查为依托的非正规部门未被观测生产规模非专项调查、基于居民支出角度调查非正规部门未被观测生产规模的设计思路。另一方面,我们通过对已有基础数据的种类、性质、来源及数据间关系的细致考察,提出了非正规部门未被观测生产规模的两种间接估算法——数据比较法和劳动力投入分析法。最后,出于数据易获得性考虑,本章以浙江省为例,进行了非正规部门未被观测生产规模的实际估算。第八章为研究总结。本章概括了全文得出的结论,从数据和方法两方面对全文的不足进行了总结,并探讨了后续研究的主要方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 GDP is a core index of reflecting total economic output, which plays a predominant position in authority’s statistics and economy analysis. Theoretically, GDP is supposed to measure correctly of products and service scale, which are conformed to the accounting principles of national economy. However, according to some researches, quite a few of the economic activities are not included in the index of GDP. These economic activities, which are supposed to be examined, are called "Non-observed Economy" （shortly, NOE）.Some country’s practices shows that the NOE has already developed into a kind of international phenomenon. The existence of it has brought unavoidable influence for each aspect of the national economy system. Owing to this, adopting a scientific and effective way to manage the phenomenon of NOE is regarded as one of the important event for the governments of all countries. The premise of solving the problem is having a good grasp of the whole scale of NOE and its concrete constructive information, which needs the aid of the scientific estimation method.Since the middle and late 19^th century, estimation method of NOE has become one of the research centres in the realm of the international academe. Many experts and international authorities have made efforts for putting forward of the reasonable method, which have achieved the remarkable results. However, on one hand, because of the NOE’s characters, such as concealment, complexity, regionalism, intersection, etc., the method we are using now are always unable to attend to everything at the same time and hard to fix an accurate position. On the other hand, because of the different research original intention, estimating the same object with different methods always appears the big divergence. In addition, the estimation of the entire scale has caused more attention, however, the research of the estimation methods of NOE categorized scale has been neglected relatively, which causes the imperfect of the theory system of the NOE estimation methods. Therefore, to comb, categorize, evaluate the estimation methods of NOE and study on the estimation methods of categorized scale of NOE , definitely, have significant practical and theorized meaning.Chinese NOE estimation started at the end of the 20^th century. Henceforth, although varieties of methods are applied to the practice of Chinese NOE estimation, yet compare to the research abroad, the methods we are using are comparatively backward and lack of the Chinese characteristics. Therefore, to sum up and conclude the foreign methods systematically and thoroughly, study on the methods with the Chinese characteristics , definitely, is the most important condition of realizing the continuously fast and healthy development of the Chinese economy.This paper regards discussing the theoretical base, commenting on the foreign experience, paying attention to the Chinese characteristics and improving the system of methods as guiding idea. This paper makes full use of the knowledge of macroeconomics, national economics, econometrics, etc., on the base of discussing the connotation, estimating theory, the experiential method and their typical application, the paper conforms to the research idea of confirming the estimating object, explaining the method and making the practical estimation .Meanwhile, this paper emphasizes "the three study combinations", that is combining study estimation methods abroad with Chinese characteristics, combining the estimation methods of NOE entire scale with the categorized scale, and combining the theoretical estimation method with the practical estimation analysis.Chapter 1 is the study on NOE’s basic theory. This chapter is devoted to clarifying the estimating object, analyzing the entire and categorized connotation of NOE and the factors which affect the origination and development of NOE and also establishing the methodology foundation for the follow up study. From the analyzing of the varieties of the designations, connotations and the standard of judging, this chapter gives the definition of NOE which is based on the angle of SNA and analyzes the producing scope and subject. Meanwhile, this chapter also gives the explanations of NOE classification:the statistics definition of Underground Production, Illegal Production, Informal Sector Production, Household Production for Own Final Use, Production Missed Due to Deficiencies in Data Collection Programme. And this chapter also analyzes the logical position in SNA of each NOE classification. Finally, this chapter analyzes the factors which determine and affect the origination and development of NOE in detail and provides the theory foundation of putting forward correctly of estimation methods.Chapter 2 is about NOE entire scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of NOE entire scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world. Nowadays, the popular methods of the NOE entire scale estimating in the world include mainly in two categories: investigating method and indirect estimation methods. The former mainly divides into six categories: the currency measuring method, revenue and expenditure measuring method, non-currency measuring method and the labour investing method. This chapter gives the elaboration of the source, thought, process, applicating condition and applicating present situation of the above six methods, combining the analysis of each method’s merit and defect in detail. Meanwhile, this chapter also tracks the latest research in the world concerning each method, such as the method of Bhattacharyya, consumers expenditure single formula method, consumers expenditure systematic method, the modified KK method etc.. Finally, this chapter gives a summary of the NOE entire scale method systematically.Chapter 3 is about the NOE categorized scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of the NOE categorized scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world.. This chapter discusses the following three themes: the estimation method of the secret producing scale, irregular section producing scale and illegal producing scale. At the same time, this chapter gives detailed discussion and comments on the designing principle, the important and difficult points, the applicative condition, merits and defect, the typical application situation of the following investigating methods: the underground producing investigating method of the products expenditure, labour and the suggestion, the investigating method of the labour, the family income and expenditure, the enterprise, the mixture of the inhabitant and the enterprise in the irregular sections, the investigating method combining the inhabitants’ investigation with module. Meanwhile, this chapter also takes "the scale of drug producing" and "the scale of sex service" as examples to discuss the basic way of the illegal producing scale estimation. The international experience shows that the direct investigating method is mainly used in the estimation of NOE categorized scale instead of the indirect way.Chapter 4 is about the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE. From this chapter, we begin to observe and study the NOE situation in China. The contents of the chapter four include the following there parts: "the knowledge of the Chinese NOE", "the factors which determine the development of Chinese NOE", and "the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE". On the ground of the basic theory of the NOE estimation and the special Chinese background, we mainly discuss the Chinese characteristics of NOE and analyze the NOE’s logical position in Chinese SNA. And then this chapter gives the discussion of the elements that influence the Chinese NOE and the formable mechanism, looking forward to establishing the theoretical and practical basic for the reasonable choice and scientific establishment of the Chinese NOE estimation method.Chapter 5 is about the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation method. This chapter gives a complete observation and study on the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation, in accordance with 2 themes: "the current situation of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation" and "the current situation of Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation". In the process of discussion, this chapter gives a list of varieties of documents about the Chinese NOE estimation and the contribution that the scholars made in this field. The objective comment on the current situation of Chinese NOE scale estimation shows that there exists a gap between the current level and the international experience. And set the direction of improving and innovating clearly.Chapter 6 is the amelioration and innovative study on Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method. This chapter is devoted to the discussion of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method which is suitable for Chinese characteristics and estimating the NOE entire scale of the passing years. On one hand, in regards of the choice of the estimation method, we mainly research the amelioration and the application of foreign method for the sake of embodying the "Chinese characteristic". For example, through the selection and distinguishing of the index, we have ameliorated the method of currency demand, worked out the Chinese Tanzi model and its full logarithm and half logarithm formula. We analyze the feasibility of the method of accounts’ income and expenditure applied in China. And also apply the method of MIMIC model to the practice of Chinese NOE scale estimation for the first time, and get the estimating result of the NOE entire scale in the past years. On the other, we put forward several innovative methods according to the formable mechanism, operative feature, the relationship with the official economy and the basic condition of Chinese statistics data of Chinese NOE. For example, we put forward 2 ideas of isolating NOE from the extra amount of currency of the past years according to "the Chinese riddle", and get the result that the scale of NOE in the past years is on the ground of the method of the extra currency isolation. On the ground of the theory of social capital flow, we put forward the idea of estimating the NOE entire scale through the capital expenditure from the difference of household income and expenditure and estimate it in practical. Meanwhile, this chapter also compare and analyze the estimating result of different methods.Chapter 7 is the innovative study on Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation method. In this chapter, we take the unobserved production in informal sector as an example, to discuss the estimation method of it. This chapter begins with the distinction of the basic category. After analyzing the statistics definition of the unobserved production in informal sector, the standards of judging and the producing boundary, on one hand, we mainly discuss the feasibility of using the direct investigating method to estimate the scale of unobserved production in informal sector, combining the Chinese investigative statistics system in force and the economic feature in informal sector. This chapter gives the designing ideas of the investigation of the scale of unobserved production in informal sector through unparticular investigation in support of the population and economy general survey, and the angle of the residents’ expenditure. On the other, we put forward 2 indirect estimation methods for the scale of unobserved production in informal sector—data comparison and the analysis of labour invest through the observation and study of the category, nature, source of the existed basic data. Finally, this chapter takes Zhejiang province as an example, and makes the practical estimation of the unobserved production in informal sector.Chapter 8 is the summary. In this chapter, we generalize the conclutions of the study, and summarize the deficiency from data and methods. Meanwhile, we discuss the leading way of the research following.更多还原