【作者】 王大庆；

【导师】 王宏燕；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济社会发展取得了巨大的成就,但是经济的快速发展也伴随着资源的大量消耗和环境的严重污染。因此,实施可持续发展战略,已成为我国重要的基本国策。黑龙江省作为我国重要的能源、森林、农牧产品以及重工业基地,资源消耗以及环境破坏程度比较严重,对黑龙江省可持续发展状况进行定量评估与生态安全评价,具有重要的现实意义。本文主要运用传统生态足迹方法和基于能值方法的生态足迹方法,对黑龙江省1980-2005年的生产性生态足迹、消费性生态足迹和输出生态足迹,生态承载力、生态赤字和生态盈余等涉及黑龙江省生态安全的动态变化进行了定量评估。同时,运用基于P-S-R模型方法构建了2002和2003年黑龙江省生态安全评价指标体系,对黑龙江省压力、状态和响应指标进行了评价。在此基础上,着重分析了影响黑龙江省可持续发展的主要问题,并提出了相应的对策。以下是本文的基本结论:1. 1980-2005年,黑龙江省生产性生态足迹在逐年增加,从1980年的4533.75万hm~2到2005年14234.35万hm~2,增加了2.1倍。从变化趋势上看,几乎是直线上升的,平均每年以396.02万hm~2的速度增长。2. 1980-2005年黑龙江省总生态承载力逐年下降,从1980年的7927.79万hm~2下降到2005年的7683.37万hm~2,减少了3%。生产性生态足迹的上升幅度远远大于生态承载力的下降幅度,生态赤字越来越大,生态环境承受着巨大的压力。3. 1992年前,黑龙江省一直处于生态盈余,生产性生态足迹的供应大于需求;但1993年以来,黑龙江省生态足迹的供需一直存在生态赤字现象,而且其生态赤字量逐年增大,到2005年总生态赤字已经达到6550.98万hm~2,相当于当年黑龙江省总生态承载力的85%,即全省生态足迹已经超过承载力的0.85倍了,人的需求与环境供给能力之间矛盾突出,区域社会面临非常严峻的生态环境压力。4.黑龙江省总人口增长虽然缓慢,但是,2002年黑龙江省人均生态足迹已高达2.997 hm~2,超过2002年全球的平均水平2.2 hm~2/人,远远超过2002年世界人均生态承载力水平1.8 hm~2/人(即全球标杆)和全国标杆(< 0.8 hm~2/人),即黑龙江省超出全球标杆和全国标杆水平。5.从人均生态足迹的供需结构看,耕地和化石能源用地的供需矛盾非常突出,建设用地和草地相对较少,林地和水域一直有盈余。造成生态赤字逐年加大的最主要原因是由于城市化、工业化的发展,大量耕地被侵占,耕地承载力逐年下降;而化石能源用地赤字一路飙升,粗放型经济的发展模式必须朝高技术、低能耗的产业发展模式。6.黑龙江省1980-2005年万元GDP生态足迹呈现下降的态势,年均递减0.717hm~2。26年来其资源利用效率提高了8倍,表明其资源利用效益在不断提高,低能耗发展模式渐成黑龙江省产业发展主流。7.作为全国的粮食、能源、森林以及重工业基地,黑龙江省每年输出大量的食品、能源、木材等资源,而每年输出生态足迹占生产性生态足迹的30%左右。但是,黑龙江省的资源优势将逐渐丧失,而且资源的过度利用,不仅影响黑龙江省自身的可持续发展,而且可能威胁到全国的粮食以及能源安全。从长远看,应主要考虑在不降低人们生活水平的前提下,减少生态足迹的需求,加强科学技术的研究与应用,提高区域生态系统的承载能力。8.黑龙江省总能值生态足迹从1980年的4551.30万hm~2,到2005年17535.75万hm~2,增加了12984.45万hm~2,增长了2.8倍。总能值生态承载力是不变的,为6150.35万hm~2。因此,随着总能值生态足迹的增长,能值生态赤字也逐年增加,由原来1980年的生态盈余1599.05万hm~2增加到2005年的生态赤字11385.40万hm~2。同时人均能值生态足迹逐年增长,由于人口的增加黑龙江省人均能值生态承载力相应减少,人均能值生态赤字不断增大。2005年人均能值生态足迹、生态承载力以及生态赤字分别为4.591 hm~2/人、1.610 hm~2/人以及2.980hm~2/人。能值生态足迹模型与传统生态足迹模型计算的结论基本相同,表明黑龙江省生态足迹已超过生态承载力,区域经济社会发展已呈现不可持续的发展状态。9.通过DPS数据处理系统时间序列模型的预测,2015年黑龙江省人均消费性生态足迹为3.6209 hm~2,人均生态承载力为1.9823hm~2,人均生态足迹是人均生态承载力的1.8倍,人均生态赤字进一步扩大,达到1.6386hm~2。假如按照现有发展模式,黑龙江省的生态赤字将继续扩大,可持续发展将面临更加严峻的挑战。10.运用基于生态足迹的生态安全评价得出,26年来黑龙江省生态压力指数(ETI)不断增大,由1980年的很安全级别下降到2005年的较不安全级别;随着经济的发展,生态占有指数(EQI)由原来的较贫穷级别提高到稍富裕级别;而生态经济协调指数(EECI)基本呈下降趋势,生态经济协调性较差。11.运用基于P-S-R模型的生态安全评价体系对黑龙江省生态现状进行分析,2002、2003年黑龙江省生态安全处于Ⅱ级(较不安全级别),这与基于生态足迹的生态安全方法得出的结论相符合。黑龙江省可持续发展将面临更严峻的生态安全问题挑战。12.在分析黑龙江省生态安全发展趋势和找出生态安全存在的问题基础上,提出了保证生态安全,实现可持续发展的对策,主要包括:减少生态赤字,转变经济增长方式和消费模式;增加生态承载力,提高黑龙江省生态系统的稳定性和生产潜力;将生态赤字作为生态环境指标纳入地方政府考核指标;按生态学规律对经济—环境—资源—社会复合系统进行宏观管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sustainable development has been becoming one of the most important basic national policies in our country. With the development of China’s reform and opening, remarkable achievements of economic and social development has been achieved. However, this kind of rapid development was combined with high resource consumption and serious environmental pollution. As an important producer of energy, forestry, farming products and heavy industrial products in China, resource consumption and environmental damage in Heilongjiang Province were much more serious. Therefore, it has important practical and instructional meaning to quantitatively assess the situation of sustainable development in Heilongjiang Province.In this paper, traditional ecological footprint, improved ecological footprint and ecological footprint based on emergy method were used to quantitatively assess the production, consumption and output ecological footprint, ecological capacity, ecological deficit and ecological surplus, which are all related to ecological security in Heilongjiang Province. Meanwhile, the Heilongjiang Province ecological security assessment system based on P-S-R model was constructed to assess the ecological pressure,state and responsing index in Heilongjiang Province .On the basis of the study above, the sustainable development issue in Heilongjiang Province was analyzed and the corresponding solutions were put forward.The paper drawed an inference following conclusions from analysis above:1. During the last 26 years, the productive ecological footprint in Heilongjiang Province has shown an annual increase, from 45.3375million ha in 1980 to 142.3435 million ha in 2005, increasing by 2.1 times. Illustrated by the changing trend, the productive ecological footprint displayed an almost linear rise, increasing at a rate of 3.9602 million ha/ year.2. The total ecological capacity in Heilongjiang Province has decreased from 1980 to 2005, from 79.2779 million ha in 1980 to 76.8337 million ha in 2005, decreasing by 3%. The ecological footprint increased much faster than the ecological capacity. As a result, the total ecological deficit became more and more larger and the eco-environment took serious pressure.3. Before 1992, Heilongjiang Province had been in ecological surplus, productive ecological footprint supply exceeded the demand. Since 1993, Heilongjiang Province has failed to maintain equilibrium between the supply and the demand of the ecological footprint. This ecological deficit was increasing year by year. The total ecological deficit in 2005 reached 65.5098 million ha, which was equivalent to 85% of the ecological capacity in Heilongjiang Province, which means that the ecological footprint was 0.85 times larger than the ecological capacity. The conflict between human demand and environmental supply was extremely obvious, and the sustainable development of regional society faces serious eco-environmental pressure.4. As the total population in Heilongjiang Province’s growth was slow during the last 26 years, however in 2002 the Ecological footprint per capita in Heilongjiang Province reached 2.997 ha, much more than the average global level of 2.2 ha per capita in 2002, and more than the ecological carrying capacity of the average world level of 1.8 ha per capita (Global Benchmark) and the National Benchmark (<0.8 ha per capita). It means that the ecological footprint in Heilongjiang Province is beyond the Global Benchmark and the National Benchmark .5. From the aspect of the ecological footprint per-capita supply and demand, the conflict outdid demand and supply of cropland and fossil fuel land. The deficit of building area and pasture were relatively smaller in Heilongjiang Province. There were always surplus of woodland and fishing ground. The prominent factor for the accelerating ecological deficit is the development of urbanization and industrialization. During this development period, a large number of arable lands were occupied, and the biological capacity of cropland was digressive. The demand of fossil fuel for conventional economic development continued to grow larer. The discharge of carbon dioxide, contributing to the green house effect, increased annually. As a result, the deficit of fossil fuel land increased obviously.6. From 1980 to 2005, ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprint in Heilongjiang Province presented a dropping tendency, decreasing progressively 0.717 ha every year. For 26 years the efficiency of its resources enhanced 8 times, which indicated that its benefit of resources has been enhancing.7. As a part of the important energy, forestry, farming products and heavy industry base of China, larger numbers of energy, timber, foodstuff and other resources were exported from Heilongjiang Province. Furthermore, the export ecological footprint accounted for 30% of the productive ecological footprint per year. Though Heilongjiang Province had abundant resources, the resources advantage would gradually recede under the same rate of development. The excessive use of resources will not only affect the sustainable development in Heilongjiang Province, but possibly threat the grain and energy security of China. From a long-term perspective with a premise of not reducing peoples’standard of living, ecological footprint demand should be reduced, research and applications of technology should be increased, and the carrying capacity of area’s ecosystem should be increased.8. The total energy ecological footprint in Heilongjiang Province increased from 45.513 million ha in 1980, to 175.3575 million ha in 2005, with an increase of 129.8445 million ha, it had been rosen by 2.8 times. The total energy ecological capacity remained the same, which was 61.5035 million ha. Therefore, as the total energy ecological footprint grew, the energy ecological deficit increased yearly, from ecological surplus 15.9905 million ha in 1980 to in 2005 to an ecological deficit of 113.854 million ha in 2005. Meanwhile, while the energy ecological footprint per capita increased year by year, the per capita energy ecological capacity had a corresponding reduction because of the steadily increasing population in Heilongjiang Province, so the energy ecological deficit per capita continued to augment. In 2005 the energy ecological footprint, ecological capacity and ecological deficit per capita were 4.591 ha, 1.610 ha and 2.980 ha respectively. The results of the energy ecological footprint model and the traditional ecological footprint model were consistent, indicating that the ecological footprint in Heilongjiang Province was beyond the ecological capacity, and its social and economic development was not sustainable.9. With the use of the time-series model of the DPS data processing system, a forecasts was made that in 2015 the consumptive ecological footprint per capita in Heilongjiang Province would be 3.6209 ha, the ecological capacity would be 1.9823 ha. According to the forecast the Ecological footprint per capita would be 1.8 times larger than the ecological capacity per capita. The ecological deficit would further expand, reaching 1.6386 ha. If under the existing development model, the ecological deficit in Heilongjiang Province would continue to expand, and sustainable development would face an austere challenge.10. With the application of an ecological security evaluation based on ecological footprint, it concluded that during the last 26 years, Ecological Tension Index (ETI) in Heilongjiang Province had enhanced, from a very secure level in 1980 to relatively insecurity level in 2005; With economic development, Ecological Occupancy index (EQI) imcreased from a poorer level to a slightly affluent level; Ecological Economic Coordination Index (EECI) basically declined, and ecological economic coordination was relatively poorer.11. With the use of an ecological security evaluation based on P-S-R model to analyze the ecological system status in Heilongjiang Province, it was concluded that in 2002 and 2003, ecological security in Heilongjiang Province was in the grade II (relatively unsafe level). This conclusion was in accordance with the ecological security method based on the ecological footprint. Thus the sustainable development in Heilongjiang Province will face even more austere ecological security challenges.12. On the base of ecological security analysis development trend and ecological security issues in Heilongjiang Province, strategies to guarantee ecological security and achieve sustainable development were put forward, including: reducing ecological deficit, changing the mode of economic growth and consumption patterns; increasing ecological capacity and improving the stability and the production potential in Heilongjiang Province ecosystems; introducing ecological deficit as eco-environmental index into the local government assessment; managing macro-economy according to the law on economic ecology-environment-resources-social compounding systems.更多还原