【作者】 雒庆举；

【导师】 孙祁祥；

【作者基本信息】 北京大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 农民工养老保险问题的提出,主要基于两个方面的考虑。一是从城市来看,经过近20年的改革,统账结合的城镇养老保险体系已经基本建立,但该体系中仍面临诸多问题,其中如何解决转轨成本备受关注。对此,许多学者提出了阔面的解决思路。而农民工群体数量众多,目前达到1.2亿人左右,加之年龄结构以中青年为主,所以考虑将其纳入养老保险体系,成为一条可供选择的解决思路。二是从农民工来看,越来越多的农民工选择了留在城市,而随着城市化进程的进一步加快,以及未来户籍制度的取消,将有更多的农民工选择留在城市,传统的土地养老方式已经不再适应这部分群体的需求,必须考虑为其制定适合的养老保险模式。而且,为农民工建立养老保险体系,也被认为是体现社会公平以及解决三农问题的重要内容。关于农民工养老保险,我国当前的政策现状是地方割据的局面。虽然国家层面在一些法律规定里面涉及了农民工养老养老保险问题,但对此并未做出具体规定。在实际运作中,基本上形成了以深圳、广东为代表的城保模式、以北京、青岛为代表的低保模式、以及以上海、成都为代表的综合模式。这三种模式在养老保险费缴纳、养老保险金领取等方面都有着较大的差异。地方割据的农民工养老保险现状,客观上限制了农民工群体的流动性,同时也不利于保障其利益。在现有的文献研究中,国内学者主要是对既有的三种农民工养老保险模式进行对比分析,并结合当前农民工自身的特点,在定性分析基础上有针对性地提出各自的观点。这些研究的缺点在于缺少对该问题的定量分析,也缺少农民工养老保险问题对各方宏观经济效应的分析。国外学者对中国农民工养老保险问题的研究非常少,但许多学者研究了国际范围内移民的养老保险问题,这些研究通过构建模型考虑了外来移民对国内劳动力市场的冲击以及养老保险体系的冲击。这些国外文献的缺点在于不是针对中国农民工养老保险问题的研究,与中国实际有所脱节。本文借鉴了国内外学者的研究方法,在对中国当前的三种农民工养老保险运作模式的定性分析基础上,在一系列假设基础上,构建了一个两期迭代模型的一般均衡研究框架,分析了农民工进入城市劳动力市场后可能存在的7种情形以及4种养老保险模式,并在此基础上对不同情形、不同养老保险模式选择下的劳动力市场变量、社会福利变量以及养老保险体系变量共3类22个宏观经济变量的时间路径进行数据模拟,研究中国农民工养老保险不同路径选择下的宏观经济效应。本文的研究采用了规范分析与实证分析、长期影响和短期影响、定性分析和定量分析相结合的研究方法。本文的研究主要得出如下结论:第一,应减小城市对农民工群体的排斥,允许其进入城市,并采取各项措施,降低城市对农民工群体的歧视,促进农民工通过教育投资进行技能的提高,这将有助于减小收入差距,并且在不降低城市工人平均福利的情况下,大幅度提高农民工群体的福利以及社会总体福利,确保经济、社会的健康发展。第二,应将农民工纳入城市养老保险体系,这会有助于提高农民工群体的福利以及社会总体福利,但必须认识到,与走“第三条道路”相比,这种做法会对整个养老保险体系的稳定性而言产生一定的冲击。第三,应保留返乡农民工群体统筹养老金的领取权力,这不仅出于公平角度的考虑,同时也是出于提高农民工群体福利角度的考虑。第四,应采取降低养老金替代率等多项措施来应对老龄化的冲击以及转轨成本的解决。本文的创新之处在于:第一,大多数对农民工养老保险问题的研究主要集中于对养老保险本身的研究,并且主要是定性分析,本文的研究不仅仅停留在农民工养老保险政策现状的定性分析上,更重要的是在探讨养老保险问题之前,首先探讨了劳动力市场结构以及农民工进入对劳动力市场的影响,然后把养老保险引入模型,并进而探讨宏观经济效应。这种首先探讨劳动力市场,然后引入养老保险的研究方法,为今后研究养老保险相关问题提供了新的方法。第二,既有的研究中,构建两期迭代模型主要是用于研究城镇养老保险体系状况以及城镇养老保险转轨相关问题,本文的研究中第一次将两期迭代模型用于研究农民工养老保险问题,这为今后研究农民工养老保险问题提供了新的研究思路。第三,既有的对农民工养老保险问题的研究,主要是探讨农民工自身所受到的影响,而本文研究中第一次通过研究多个宏观经济变量来全面地探讨农民工养老保险不同模式下的宏观经济效应,这为今后研究农民工养老保险问题提供了一个新的视角。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study on the issue of China‘s rural workers’pension system is mainly based on two aspects. First, after 20 years’reform, China’s current urban pension system has been established to combine social pooling and individual account together; however, there still exist many problems, such as how to resolve the transition cost. In view of the large number of rural workers, about 1.2 billion people exist in the labor force, and the age of them are mainly young and middle-aged, many scholars think absorbing rural workers into this system is considerable way. Second, with the process of urbanization and the abolition of the household registration system, a growing number of rural workers choose to settle down in urban city, thus their demands for pension system will increase. Moreover, the establishment of pension system for them is also considered an important point of showing social equity and resolving the three rural issues.China’s current policies on rural workers’pension system are local separated. Some polices have been put forward by the state government to cover the issue of rural workers’pension system, but they do not make specific provisions. In actual operation, there exit three models, which are City Insurance Model represented by Shenzhen and Guangdong, Lower Insurance Model represented by Beijing and Qingdao, Compound Insurance Model represented by Shanghai and Chengdu. These three models are quite different from each other in the payment of premiums, the draw of annuities, etc.. This local separation situation restricts the movement of rural workers and hurts the interest of rural workers.In the exiting literature, domestic scholars, after qualitative and comparative analyzing the exiting three models of rural workers pension system, mainly give their view on establishment of rural workers pension system. These studies are lack of quantitative analysis and analysis on the macroeconomic effects of rural workers’system. Foreign scholars do little study on this issue, but do a lot on the issue of international migrations. By constructing models, these studies do research on the impacts of international migrations on domestic labor markets and pension system. Their shortcomings are not aimed at the issue of China’s rural workers’pension system and not in line with the actual situation in China. On the basis of qualitative analysis on the current three models of rural workers’pension system and a series of assumptions, this dissertation sets up a two-period dynamic life cycle model under general equilibrium framework and makes quantitative analysis on the economic effects of rural workers’entering and sensitivity analysis of certain parameter values under different situations and different models of rural workers’pension system. This dissertation combines the research methods of standardized analysis and empirical analysis, long-term effects and short-term impact analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis.The basic conclusions of the research are as follows: Firstly, the city government should take measures to reduce the repulsion and discrimination so that more rural workers can enter the city and improve their skills, which will help reducing the income gap, greatly improving rural workers’welfare and the overall social welfare but not reducing the welfare of the average urban workers,. Secondly, the rural workers should be integrated into urban pension system, which will help improving the welfare of rural workers groups, and overall social welfare as well. It also must be recognized that, comparing with the“third way”, in such a situation, the stability of pension system will decrease due to the higher payment. Thirdly, the right of rural workers to receive social pooling account should be retained, which are not only for fairness considerations, but also for improvement of both rural workers’welfare and social welfare. Fourthly, as well as reducing the rate of pension replacement, alternative measures should be taken to deal with the impact of the aging fact and the resolution of the transition costs.The innovation of this dissertation lies in : Firstly, as to the research methodology, this dissertation, different from other current studies, combines both qualitative and quantitative analysis, and uses a two-period dynamic life cycle stimulation model to analyze macroeconomic effects. Secondly, as to research content, the current studies are mainly concentrated on one specific point (for example, only on the impact on the urban pension system). This dissertation takes a research on the composite macroeconomic effects of rural workers’pension system through studying the time path of 22 macroeconomic variables. Thirdly, as to the conclusion, this dissertation, mainly for welfare consideration, is in favor of integrating rural workers into urban pension system. This dissertation also acclaims that the stability of pension system will decrease in such a situation.更多还原