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中国金融发展、投资与经济增长

Financial Development, Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from China

【作者】 张春田

【导师】 赵振全;

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 , 数量经济学, 2008, 博士

【摘要】 在金融发展与经济增长关系的理论研究中,“资本积累”和“技术创新”作为金融发展作用于经济增长的两条重要途径得到了广泛肯定。然而,这并不是一个能够清晰展开实证研究的主线。为了克服这一难题,本文选取金融发展与投资的关系对这两个途径进行了全面替代。投资活动是资本形成和生产率提升的载体和源泉,从而与金融发展影响经济增长的两个途径紧密联系在一起。本文重点探讨了金融发展在投资形成和转化过程中的角色,总体框架既涵盖了投资在宏观和微观层面下的不同表现,同时也体现了投资来源的内部和外部性质。本文的核心内容包括以下几部分:第一,讨论金融发展如何通过促进“储蓄-投资”转化机制,使得社会资金从资本闲置方流动到资金需求方,从而更充分地扩大可用于投资的资源;第二,讨论金融发展如何引导资金从低生产率部门流向高生产率部门,即判断金融发展是否改善投资效率;第三,讨论金融发展水平的提高能否降低企业的融资约束进而影响企业的投资行为,借以对投资的微观层面予以考察;第四,鉴于外商直接投资对于发展中国家技术创新的重要作用,本文还分析了金融体系在FDI促进经济增长过程中对于技术溢出的中介传导作用。

【Abstract】 Investment that has been regarded as a key source of capital formation and productivity growth has a close relationship between two channels: capital accumulation and technological innovation through which financial development can improve economic growth. This paper takes the nexus between financial development and investment as a substitute for the two channels and a principal line to investigate the role of financial development in the course of capital collected and transferred to investment and its frame incorporates the distinguish between not only the response of investment to financial development in micro-level and macro-level but also the internal and external source of investment. So, this paper can be classed to the research that focus on the mechanism by which financial development affects economic growth.This paper is organized as follows:Chapter 1 Introduction. First, this thesis discusses the academic and practical context on correlation among financial development, investment and economic growth briefly and emphasizes the trend in existing work and relation to the situation of a our country, which opens out the motivation and meaning of choosing this subject pithily. Secondly, some fundamental concepts and their definition are made clear, especially the meaning of the financial development. Again, based on a summary of existing work, the system of this thesis and methodologies in the corresponding part are put forward. At last, the structure and innovations of this thesis is introduced.Chapter 2 A summary of existing work on correlation among financial development, investment and economic growth. In this part, the thesis comments some representative research on their successes and limitations by reviewing the literatures about theory of financial development, and channels through which financial development may affect investment respectively. Accordingly, some directions in the future research are pointed out. Moreover, feasibility and groundwork of this thesis is also embodied in this course.Chapter 3 Financial development and transformation from saving to investment. Firstly, this chapter sums up the academic literatures about transformation from saving to investment. Secondly, using the panel data of 29 provinces during 1978-2005 in China this chapter refers to the methodology to test integration of financial system in Feldstein and Horioka(1980) to examine the effect of financial system to transformation from saving to investment and analyze the main reason of low efficiency in the course of saving convert to investment.Chapter 4 Financial development and efficiency of investment. This chapter inspects the effect of financial development on the efficiency of investment, including the two most empirical, to ensure that the perspective of the comprehensiveness and the stability of the conclusions. The first part is based on point of view of the inter-industries efficiency of investment. This part referring to the methods for measure of capital allocation efficiency in industry in Wurgler (2000), using of the data of industrial enterprises in the 1990-2006 in China, evaluates the effect of financial development on the efficiency of investment through the relevance of capital allocation efficiency and financial development variables. The second part is based on point of view of capital allocation efficiency in region. This chapter investigates the effect of financial development on the iner-regions efficiency of investment through the relevance of the marginal net capital flow of provinces and marginal output of capital.Chapter 5 Financial development and corporate investment. Using of the data of listed companies in China and the investment model under the situation of asymmetric information, this chapter investigates the relationship of financial development and business investment behavior from the micro-level departure. Empirical work includes two blue print: (1) Without classifying enterprises, the overall effect of financial development on financial constrains of corporate is verified. (2) According to the non-balanced characteristics of financial development in China and taking into account the presence of soft budget constraint, this chapter verifies the effect of financial development on financial constrains of corporate after a division of the enterprises. Chapter 6 Financial development and foreign direct investment. This chapter discusses the role of domestic financial system in transferring the technological diffusion embodied in the FDI inflows. Firstly, this chapter has establishes a theoretical model and it comes to the preliminary conclusion. Then, using the bound testing approach a positive effect of technological diffusion in FDI inflows on short and long-term economic growth is testified under a certain level of development of financial system.At last, the thesis draws a conclusion.The primary conclusions of this thesis include:Financial development has the features of "financial restraint" widely in developing countries in China, which reflects in the regional and structural split of financial system and that converting from savings to into investment is not smooth by the financial path. Capital flows inter-regions in China has being weak since reform and opening up, that is weaker than Japan and the OECD countries now, and shows a decline trend after the 1990s. This proves that China’s financial system did not give full play the role of transferring savings into investment, or its positive role did not offset the negative effects of factors impede capital flows.2. The efficiency of Industrial capital allocation indicates that although the efficiency of investment in China is higher in some particular year, but volatile sharply in the mass, but the overall level is behind the world average level, especially is hard to compare with the developed countries. The variables representing financial development in the size, structure and combinations of both have a weak correlation with efficiency of Industrial capital allocation. In the course of the economic development, under-investing to business with good prospects and excessive investing to business in the recession exits contemporarily. The results from inter-regional efficiency of capital allocation show that there is a tendency for capital to go to regions where capital has lower productivity in China. Moreover, from the source of capital, the investment by FDI and self-raised funds do respond positively to marginal product of capital, but government budget and loans exhibit a negative relationship with marginal product of capital.3. This thesis finds that Chinese listed firms suffered from severe financing constraints at large during period of sample. Financing constraints bring the sensitivity of corporate investment to cash flow, but not over-investment. Financial development in China exerts influence on gathering corporate information in a mass, which has reduced financing constraints and weakened the extent of dependency relationship between investment and internal cash flow in corporate in spite of that the positive effect of financial development on financing constraints in too limited to eliminate it thoroughly; Moreover, distorted by budget soft constraints, the firms with private ownership are more financially constrained than firms with state ownership.4. In theory, the developed financial system of recipient country can enhance the efficient allocation of financial resources and in this sense it improves the technological level and economic growth rate of host country. In both short- and long-run, financial sector in China has been acting a mechanism in transferring the benefit embodied in the foreign direct investment in promoting the domestic economic growth at last, which can be regarded as an evident that financial development can promote economic growth in China. Moreover, a threshold level of financial development, measured by the ratio of credit to private sector of state owned banks to GDP, can be calculate and above which FDI starts to have a positive impact on economic growth, and FDI will have a positive impact on growth in China where credit to private sector of state owned banks as a percentage of GDP is above 4.710% and 8.375% in short- and long-run, respectively.Of course, the conclusion of this thesis needs to be confirmed by the correlative theories and practice in future.Finally, since manyof content in this thesis is a maiden attempt and the ways and means of the research maybe limited, it is inevitable that anything important is ignored or anything wrong. So any suggestion or comment is welcomed, thank you in advance.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 吉林大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2008年 12期
  • 【分类号】F224;F832;F124
  • 【被引频次】8
  • 【下载频次】1615
  • 攻读期成果
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