【作者】 刘惠敏；

【导师】 韩传峰；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 人类社会经济活动不可超越生态系统所规定的“界限”以维护“人类--自然系统”及其可持续性,这是可持续发展的本质。区域发展必须在自然条件和生态承载力约束下。生态可持续既是区域可持续发展的共性特征,也因区域系统差异而具有特殊性。衡量区域生态阈值和可持续水平,并以此为前提评价区域可持续发展能力,对区域发展规划和调控等尤为重要。同时,人是可持续发展中最关键的因素,客观分析人类需求的差异性和行为关系的复杂性,为解析生态环境问题产生的根源、制定并实施有效的可持续发展策略提供科学依据。论文创新性地提出将生态安全和人类行为关系作为区域可持续发展的硬约束条件和软约束条件,即硬阈值和软阈值,分析区域发展与软硬约束子系统的相互作用关系并构建对应的函数模型,并以此逻辑分两部分对基于生态可持续的区域发展进行系统研究。第一部分(第三章至第五章),在分析国内外相关理论的基础上,第三章描述区域复合系统的运行和演化机理,辨识可持续发展的多维临界和阈值约束,对区域复合系统在生态承载力约束下的阶段性演替和可持续发展机制进行系统分析;第四章着重探讨生态阈值的定量分析方法,以黄河三角洲区域为算例,选取生态系统能值分析、生态足迹法和CVORS综合指数法等3种方法,对区域生态安全与可持续能力进行了评价;第五章确定包括功能维、要素维和域幅维的区域复合系统可持续发展三维结构,建立区域可持续发展评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对黄河三角洲区域的可持续发展水平进行了综合评价。第二部分(第六章),将人类需求划分为经济需求、社会需求和生态需求3个层次,需求的差异性形成了5种人类行为关系。运用博弈理论,分别建立了不同行为关系的博弈均衡模型,着重就外部性问题、公有地悲剧和生态功能区等生态矛盾的产生原因和解决途径进行了博弈均衡分析,在此基础上提出了生态补偿、污染收费制度和加强执行力等经济策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Human beings’ social and economical activities mustn’t overrun ecological ’boundary’ to maintain ’Human-Nature System’ and its sustainability. That is the essence of sustainable development. Regional development must be resticted by natural condition and ecological carring capacity. Ecological sustainability is not only the commonness, but also the particularity caused by regional systematic difference. Going on the premise of the measure of regional ecological threshold and sustainable level, it is especially important to evaluate regional sustainable capability for regional planning and controlling. At the same time, Human beings are the most pivotal factor during regional development. By the objective analysis of human’s demand differences and behavior relationship complexities, it may be achieved to resolute the rootstock of ecological and evironmental problems, then to establish and actualize effective sustainable development strategies.The thesis puts forward an argument that ecological security and human beings behavior relationship are the restrction conditions, namely, hard threshold and soft threshold of regional sustainable development, respectivelly. It analyzes the mutual relationship between regional development and its hard & soft restrction subsystems, then establishes corresponding function models. Under the above logic, it divides into two parts to study the regional development based on ecological sustainablity.Part I : Chapter Three describes the circulation and evolvement mechanism of regional complex system, identificates its multidimensional criticalities and thresholdes, analyzes its staggered succession and sustainable development mechanism. Chapter Four discusses qualtitative analysis methods about ecological threshold. Taking Yellow River Delta as example, it chooses several methods such as Ecological Emergy Analysis, Ecological Footprint and CVORS Compositive Index to evaluate regional ecological security and sustainable capability. Chapter Five confirms threedimensional structure of regional complex system sustainable development, which includes function-dimension, factor-dimension and region-dimension. It also establishes Index system and evaluating method for sustainable development of regional complex system, then researches into Yellow River Delta empirically.Part II: Chapter Six divides human beings demand into three levels, economic demand, social demand and ecologicao demand. The differences between three kinds of demand bring five human beings behavior relationships. It ultilizes Game Theory to set up different Game Equilibrium models, analyzes the reasons of ecological conflict such as Externality, Public Land and Ecological Functional Area and put up with solving approaches. From all above, it also raises several economic strategies including ecological compensation system, pollution toll system and strengthening executative power, et.更多还原