【作者】 任常兴；

【导师】 吴宗之；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着工业化的发展,危险品的生产量和运输量与年俱增,对人类安全健康和自然环境的危害正在逐步扩大和加深。据统计,我国95%以上的危险品涉及异地运输问题,其中82%左右是通过道路运输的,年运输量达2亿吨左右。由于危险品道路运输量大、通行车辆事故率高和运输企业安全管理水平落后,近年来灾难性事故频发,后果极其严重。危险品道路运输既是一个倍受关注的社会公共安全问题,也是一个重要的战略和战术决策问题。基于运输过程风险分析的路径优化研究可降低危险品道路运输事故率和沿线人员伤亡风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全规划提供决策技术支持,补充和完善了移动危险源风险评价理论及技术方法。本文首先系统地概述了国内外危险品运输管理、风险分析和路径优化选线的研究现状、发展趋势及存在的主要问题,通过典型事故案例统计分析探讨了危险品运输事故发生的特点及控制对策,辨识了主要的运输路径风险影响因素和非运输路径风险影响因素,并以危险品危险性权重等级和运输事故易发性系数来表征其风险特性。在此基础上,从道路运输网、运输危险源和影响区域3方面提出了危险品运输过程风险评价程序,引入了危险品运输事故易发性校正系数和道路固有特征、天气条件和交通状况3类风险修正因子,提出了危险品运输路径优化的影响区人员伤亡风险和环境风险评价模型以及可快速风险分级的指数评价方法,并结合影响区人员死亡概率系数给出了个人风险和单位长度(通常为1km)社会风险计算模型以及可接受风险标准。同时,在危险品运输过程风险分析的基础上阐述了以人员伤亡风险为主的路径优化选线的内涵、特点、原则及基本方法,提出了危险品道路运输路径优化的基本程序和双层选线管理模式;以运输路径沿线影响区人员伤亡风险大小为优化选线的基准,从危险品、道路特征、伤亡人员、运输环境、应急能力、运输成本等方面构建了危险品道路运输路径优化评价指标体系,重点研究了单目标比例权重法选线和多目标Pareto最优化选线两种路径优化方法,采用权数调整节点标号算法和边线标号算法搜索最小运输事故率路径和最少影响区人员总数路径;分析了气象条件对路径优化选线的影响以及时间因素与危险品运输事故率和影响区人员密度的关系,提出了具有时变属性的影响区人员伤亡风险评价模型,可搜索最佳运输时间的最小人员伤亡风险路径,并进一步探讨了时变随机运输网的路径优化选线评价模型。以天津地区液氯道路运输为例,定量评估了液氯运输过程泄漏事故率和灾难性事故后果以及人员伤亡风险和运输环境风险,优化决策最小运输风险和最低运输成本路径,有效降低了液氯运输灾难性事故风险,并以ArcGIS系统实现了可视化选线分析。实例研究表明:面向运输道路特征的人员伤亡风险评价模型能够较准确地反映危险品运输过程的风险水平,以路径沿线影响区人员风险大小为基准的路径优化评价模型在解决危险品道路运输风险分析和路径优化评价的不确定性和简化计算方面是科学的、合理的,具有良好的可操作性,可为危险品监管部门和运输企业提供选线决策技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of industrialized societies, the production capacity and transport volumes of hazardous materials (hazmat), or dangerous goods (DG) rapidly boost annual year, which results in an increasing potential danger to human health and natural environment. In China, about 95% hazmat must be transported from producers to end-users, more than 80% amount of which are through road, and annual traffic volume is up to near two hundred million tons. In resent years, due to the increasing of hazmat shipment volumes, high road accident rates and poor safety management level, some catastrophic accidents involving hazmat transport frequently occurred, which usually resulted in high casualties and great environment damage. Clearly, hazmat road transport is not only a hot issue of societal public safety, but also an important strategies and tactics decision-making problem. In this paper, in order to reduce hazmat transport risk for neighboring population and environment, a risk- analysis-based optimal routing methodology for hazmat transport by road is proposed, which supports the decision associated with safety management, optimal routing and emergency response for hazmat between local government and carriers, and perfects risk assessment theory and methodology on the moving hazard sources.Firstly, the literature pertaining to risk assessment and optimal routing of hazmat transport by road is reviewed, and the current state and some questions of the art and theory and methodology used in previous hazmat transport management, risk analysis and optimal routing are identified. Based on the statistic analysis of typical hazmat transport accidents cases, the characteristics and rules of accidents are investigated as well as control countermeasure, and the route dependent risk factors and route independent risk factors are identified. Risk characteristics of transport hazmat are depicted by the hazmat average weighted risk rank and the modifying factors of accident-proneness. On this basis, by identifying transport network, vehicles or traveling risk sources and accident impact areas, a new comprehensive systematic procedure to assessment hazmat transport risk is faced, introducing the modifying factors of accident-proneness and three kinds of risk enhancing or mitigating factors including intrinsic road characteristics, meteorological conditions, and traffic conditions. Furthermore, a route-oriented population risk and environment risk models and a rapid risk rating index approach are presented. The individual risk and societal risk models integrated with death probability coefficient of neighboring population along the hazmat route are analyzed, and the acceptability risk criterion on hazmat transport is discussed.Secondly, according to the above-described risk assessment technique and methods for hazmat during road transport, the essential meanings, figures, principles and methods of a risk-analysis-based optimal routing methodology are illuminated, and a new and general framework for optimal routing of hazmat transport and bi-level management mode between local government and carriers are brought forward. The benchmark of optimal routing problem is dependent on the exposure population risk along the road, and the assessment framework to determine the best path of hazmat transport by road is built, which includes hazmat attributes and classifies, road characteristics, impact population distribution, traffic environmental condition, emergency response capability, transport cost and so on. It is emphasized on the scale weighted technique of single objective routing and the Pareto optimal method of multi-objective routing. Moreover, the minimum hazmat accident probability path and the least population exposure path are searched by adopting impedance-adjusting node labeling shortest path algorithm and link labeling shortest path algorithm, respective. Additionally, the influence of weather condition on hazmat routing and the characteristics of hazmat accidents probability and impact population density varying with time are discussed, and a population risk model with time attribute is presented to search the minimum population risk at the best time. And the optimal routing of hazmat in time-varying, stochastic road transportation is also investigated deeply. Thirdly, the case study for liquefied chlorine road transport in Tientsin region was systematically investigated, and quantified the release probability, catastrophic consequences, population risk, environment risk and other routing criterions, some of which were shown by the ArcGIS system. According to the above-proposed risk assessment and routing methods, the optimal routing for liquefied chlorine transport by road was determined, and it reduced neighboring population and environment risk for the used route. The case study suggests the route-oriented risk assessment model determine the risk level of hazmat during road transport well and truly, and the optimal routing methods based on the population risk along the used route decrease hazmat transport accidents frequency and catastrophic consequences and help the associated routing decision-making for hazmat.更多还原