【作者】 王春超；

【导师】 曹阳； 戴思锐；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 政府经济学， 2008， 博士

【副题名】基于湖北农户调查的研究

【摘要】 在改革开放以来的30年里,中国农村发生了翻天覆地的变化,农村中的一系列问题也愈来愈引起人们的关注。近年来,“三农”问题成为政府实践和学术研究的焦点。然而,解决这一系列问题的出路是什么?笔者认为,解决“三农”问题的出路在于解决农民问题。而农民收入又居于关键与核心的地位。与农民收入紧密相连的即是收入的来源问题。实证资料表明,农民的绝大多数收入来源于劳动收入。因此,劳动就业成为农民收入增长的关键要素。展开此类问题的研究就需要我们以一个恰当的视角对农民的劳动就业行为进行细致的研究。具体而言,中国农民的就业行为通常处在特定的社会经济转型的背景和一定的政策制度的约束之下。因此,全面深入地理解农民的就业和劳动力流动行为不仅仅需要单纯研究农民的就业行为本身,还需要将农民的行为放置在特定的政策约束下进行研究。基于上述认识,本文以农户家庭的分析为基础,从中国农户收入流增长及其来源的分析出发,围绕农户就业决策和劳动力流动这一重要现象,分析了改革以来中国农民就业行为的演变,农村劳动力流动行为的演变以及相应政策制度的演变规律及其特征。在此基础上,采用静态和动态两条分析路径,运用笔者在农村的实地调查资料和湖北农户跟踪调查资料重点研究了农户就业决策和劳动力流动的影响因素,并细致地分析了政策约束下农户就业决策和劳动力流动的行为。本文的研究试图为进一步全面而深入地认识农民就业和政府行为及其政策提供基础信息。本文从理论层面回答了改革以来农民就业为什么会形成如此的理性行为,农户家庭的内生和外生就业决策机制是什么,政策制度以及其他经济社会因素如何影响着农民的就业和流动行为等问题。从实证层面回答了改革以来农民的就业行为如何,政策思路如何,未来的政策将需要如何完善以拓宽农民就业渠道,提升农民就业层次,持续提高农民收入等问题。全文共分为6章。第1章在描述本项研究的理论和现实背景的基础上,提出本文研究的核心问题是:农户就业决策和劳动力流动行为的影响因素,以及政策对就业决策行为的约束。此后,对本领域研究的文献作出简要综述,并介绍了全文研究的思路、方法和实证数据。第2章提出本文的理论分析框架。这一章首先对四组重要的概念进行界定,即:农户与农户家庭、就业决策与就业选择、劳动力流动与迁移、政策约束与制度约束。然后,提出本文的分析框架:芝加哥理论分析框架,本文的研究基于此框架却又不拘泥于这一基本框架。接下来则提出从静态和动态两条路径展开本文的研究。最后,提出了本文的基本假设。第3章重点以湖北农户调查资料为例分析了中国农户就业决策行为及其影响因素。第4章研究了中国农户劳动力流动行为及其影响因素。第5章将农户的就业决策和劳动力流动放在特定的政策约束下进行了详细地分析。第6章是本文的总体研究结论和政策建议。本文运用大量的农户调查资料对农户家庭的就业决策和劳动力流动行为以及政策对其影响的作用机制进行了细致地分析,论文的创新主要体现在如下几个方面:(1)研究视角的创新:本文的研究是基于农户家庭层面展开对农民就业决策和劳动力流动行为的分析。论文采用家庭整体效用最大化的行为分析框架研究了农户家庭内部劳动就业决策的内生机制。在此基础上,对农户之间社会互动的就业决策行为进行了探讨。全文以农户家庭层面为基础视角对农村劳动力就业和流动行为作出的研究与以往更多从宏观角度或者劳动力个体角度进行的研究文献具有极大的不同。(2)研究方法的创新:在实地调查的过程中笔者运用深度访谈法、个案调查法和焦点问题讨论法,并在具体的分析中更为清晰地考察了各种类型农户的劳动就业决策行为。在个案分析的同时本文利用横截面数据、跟踪调查的农户面板数据和时间序列数据对农户的就业决策和劳动力流动行为进行静态和动态的计量分析。尤其是采用了动态面板多元离散选择模型对农户的动态就业决策行为选择及其各种因素的影响进行了计量分析,这是国内首次运用此方法展开对农户动态就业决策行为的深入探索。在对政策约束的分析中,则采用了综合归纳的方法将影响农户就业决策行为和劳动力流动的政策进行了适当抽象和归纳,并分类进行了研究。从研究方法的总体上看,由上述方法综合形成的实证研究突破了以往在农村劳动力就业和流动行为研究领域集中于运用静态的实证分析方法的现状。(3)本文采用家庭经济行为分析的基本框架,首次对不同经济禀赋条件下的农户家庭劳动就业决策行为以及农户参与村庄互动博弈的机制进行了细致分析。研究认为:处于不同经济状况下的农户,其理性就业决策行为所表现出的外化行为特征不尽相同。针对不同的经济禀赋条件和行为特征,本文将农户的基本类型分为:生存压力型农户、效益追求型农户和经济发展型农户。此外,本文认为,农户家庭不仅仅涉及内部成员的分工分业,农户作为整体也参与了村庄社区的互动博弈。随着农户在村庄中相对经济地位的提高,家庭在村庄中与邻居的互动博弈收益(包括物质和非物质的综合收益)有所提高,家庭在从整体效用较低的情形逐步转换到效用较高的情形的过程中,其转换的机制也由“调整”和“追赶”变为“惯性”机制。(4)本文运用动态计量分析方法对中国农民就业行为特征产生了新的认识。本文认为,处于外部宏观环境变动中的农户经济组织是一个完整的经济系统。研究表明,农户家庭就业决策系统呈现出稳定的“状态依赖”特征。当前,中国农村已经形成了“农村就业两端刚性”的趋势。在农村就业行为取向的一端是具有很强乡土情结的以农业为生的农户家庭。这一类农户家庭在当前农村中的数量在减少,但他们确实比较稳定地存在着。他们的就业行为仍然保持往日的状态,行为变化非常小。在另一端,具有非农经营或者外出就业行为的农户在未来的就业行为选择中具有越来越强烈的“非农化”倾向。处于上述两端就业状态的农户非常多,处于中间状态的农户则相对少,因而形成了农村劳动力就业的“刚性”特征。(5)首次开创性地运用社会乘数效应研究政策制度对农户就业决策行为影响的传导机制。通过对特定政策约束下农户就业决策行为影响机制的研究,揭示出政策的边际变化对单个农户就业决策和劳动力流动行为的影响程度。本文通过对农村中社会互动行为的研究提出了新的解释政策因素如何在农村社区群体中进行渗透的理论。本文的研究表明:由于社会互动行为的影响,随着某个农户所处社区群体行为对其就业决策行为的影响越大,农户之间的联系越紧密,整个群体的社会乘数效应也越大,进而使得政策变动效应在整个社区成员之间相互渗透的力度越大,政策影响也就更为广泛。(6)首次从动态变迁的角度分析改革以来涉农的劳动就业政策的演变规律及其与农户就业决策行为变迁之间的互动演进关系。本文的研究表明了改革开放以来涉农的劳动就业政策制度的变迁呈现出三大规律:第一,尽管各个时期政府的具体政策措施针对当时的社会经济发展状况和就业形势在不断地变化之中,然而每一个阶段的政策都至少在某一个方面沿袭了前一阶段的政策导向。第二,如果从总体的政策变迁趋势上看,随着时间的推移和改革的深入,政府在对待农民“在农村内部非农就业”以及“到城市流动就业”两方面就业渠道的态度上较之以往都显得更为积极。第三,改革以来不断进行着的政策制度创新是一种自下而上的过程,创新的强大动力首先来自农民。每一阶段的政策相应于农民的就业行为均做出了反应,但这种反应相对于农民就业行为来讲有所滞后。在政府政策与农民就业行为不断的互动演进中,农民的实践往往在先,随后,政府部门则对农民和其他社会主体的行为实践作出回应。最终,政府在宏观政策层面上将可能对他们的行为进行规范。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening policy was implemented 30 years before,great changes have taken place in rural China and the concerning problems have been increasingly paid attention to.Among them,issues like "three—dimensional rural problems" - the "issue of farmers’ income",the "issue of rural development",and the "issue of agricultural development" have become the central issue in the policy study and academic research.Since the issues of "sannong wenti" are closely connected with the farmers,the author of the thesis argues that the key to solve these problems is to increase the farmers’ income.Such increase must be considered as the starting point and the objective in rural management of the government.Furthermore,farmers’ income is much related to the source of income,and empirical data show that most farmers’ income is from labor.Therefore,labor employment has become the key factor in increasing farmers’ income.Consequently,a proper perspective should be taken to explore the farmers’ behavior in labor employment during the studies.Based on the arguments mentioned above,the analyses of peasant household,and the source and increase of their income stream,this thesis,focusing on the employment decision-making and labor force flow,makes an analysis not only of the behavior evolution since the reform about farmer employment and rural labor flow,but also the evolutionary law and characteristics about the corresponding policy and system.Applying both static and dynamic analytic routes and using the materials of rural fieldwork and the household tracking survey in Hubei,the author does a thorough research on the influential factors of peasant household employment decision-making and the labor force flow and carries out a meticulous analysis of the above behaviors under policy restriction.The research also tries to offer basic information to the in-depth understanding of the farmer employment and government behavior and its policies.From the theoretical level,the thesis gives answers to the following questions:①why could such rational farmer employment behavior take shape since the reform?②what is the decision-making mechanism of obtaining off-farm employment?③how do policy system and other economic social factors influence farmer’s employment and flow behavior? And so on.The thesis also provides substantial solutions to farmer employment behavior since the reform,train of thought on policies,and how the future policy can perfect and broaden the peasants’ employment means,promote their employment level,and continuously increase their income.The thesis is made up of 6 chapters.According to the description of the research theory and the foundation of the realistic background,Chapter 1 first puts forward the core problem:the impact factor of peasant household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior,and the policy restriction to the decision-making.Then a literature review is made and the train of thought,methods, and substantial data of the research are introduced.Chapter 2 brings up the theoretical analysis framework.First,it defines four pairs of important concepts,that is,peasant household and household family,employment decision-making and employment choosing,labor flow and labor movement, policy restriction and stipulation restriction.Next,this chapter raises the research framework---the Chicago Theory Analysis Frame,which my research is based on this frame but not rigidly adhere to. After that,the research is carded out by using both static and dynamic routes.Finally,the basic hypothesis of the full essay is put forward.Based on the tracking survey in Hubei,Chapter 3 focuses on the Chinese peasant household employment decision-making and its impact factor.Chapter 4 makes a study on labor flow behavior and its impact factor.Chapter 5 makes a detailed analysis on the household employment decision-making and labor flow which both are under the particular policy restriction.At last,Chapter 6 makes a conclusion of the research and provides suggestions on policies.This thesis uses a huge amount of peasant household investigation data to make a detailed analysis of the household family employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior,as well as the functional mechanism from policies.The innovations of this thesis are as follows:(1)The innovation of the study angle:The thesis carries out the analysis of household employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior on the peasant household family level. Adopting the behavior analysis frame of family overall efficiency maximization,the thesis studies the household family internal mechanism of labor employment decision-making.Hence,it carries out a research on interacted society employment decision-making behavior.With a basic angle of household family level,this research which deals with the rural labor employment and flow is thus quite different from the literature which focuses more on the macroscopic angle or the labor force individual angle.(2)The innovation of research method:In the progress of investigation on the spot,the author uses the profound-interview method,individual case investigation method and core problem discussion method.What’s more,the author makes a clear investigation of all kinds of household employment decision behavior in the detailed analysis.While doing the individual case analysis,the author uses cross section data,inquisitional peasant household panel data and time sequence data to carry out a static and dynamic calculating analysis on the household employment decision-making and the labor flow behavior.In order to make a special calculating analysis of household dynamic employment decision-making and its various influential factors,the Dynamic Panel Data Multinomial Discrete Choice Model is used,which is also the first time that it is used in launching a thorough investigation of such behavior among domestic scholars.As for the analysis of the policy restriction, comprehensive inductive method is applied to abstract and carry out a classification research on the policies which influence household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior.Generally speaking,this evidential study makes a breakthrough on the present situation of concentrating on static analytical method in this field.(3)The thesis uses the analytical basic frame of family economic behavior.It is the first time that a research has carded out such detailed analysis on peasant household family employment decision-making with different economic conditions and the game theory mechanism of their participation in the village social interaction.It argues that peasant households under different economic conditions differ in external behavior characteristics according to their rational employment decision-making behavior.Based on different economic conditions and feature of acting,the basic types of peasant household are divided as:the survival-pressure type,the benefit-pursuing type,and the economy-developed type.In addition,the thesis also holds that peasant household family not only takes part in the internal division of labor and work,but also participates in the interact game of the village community as a whole.As the improvement of peasant household’s relative economy condition in the village,the families’ benefit of the interactive game with neighbors(including material and non-material comprehensive benefit)has increased.And as the lower-effect family transforms into a higher one,the mechanism also converts from "adjustment" and "pursuit" into "inertia".(4)Using the dynamic econometrics’ analytical method,the thesis raises a new understanding about the characteristic of the Chinese farmer employment behavior.The author believes that peasant household economic organization,which is surrounded by the changing macro-environment,is a complete economic system.My research shows that the employment decision-making system of household family turns out to be stable and "state dependence".Nowadays, a trend of "two-end rigid village employment" has taken shape in Chinese rural areas.To be more specific,at one end of the rural employment mind-set,there is a kind of peasant household that has strong native complex and lives on agricultural production.So far,in spite of the decreasing number, those household families still stably maintain their employment behavior.At the other end,peasant households who have experience in non-agricultural business or off-farm employment,show a stronger and stronger trend of "non-agricultural" employment trend.With a majority of the households at the two ends and a comparative minority in the middle state,a rural labor "rigid" employment characteristic is formed.(5)It is the first time that a thesis has used the social multiple effect to do the research on the transmission mechanism of policy effects on peasant household employment decision-making.Having studied the effect mechanism of the peasant household employment decision-making under particular policy restrains,the author reveals the effect degree of marginal variety on the policy of one peasant household employment decision-making and labor flow behavior. Based on the research of the rural social interactive behavior,a new explaining theory about how policy factors penetrate into the groups of rural communities is carried out by this thesis.The research shows that,because of the impact of social interactive behavior,when the effect of certain peasant household community’s group behavior on the employment decision-making grows stronger,the communication between the households will become closer.Consequently,the group’s social multiple effect becomes greater,the interactive penetrating strength of the policy’s effect on the whole community also becomes stronger and the policy effect more widely known.(6)For the first time a thesis with a dynamic change angle,analyses the interactive relationship between the development law of agricultural labor employment policy,and its change of peasant household employment decision-making behavior since the reform.The research holds a view that since reform,the change of rural labor employment policy manifests three regular patterns.First,although the government’s concrete policy measures,which aim at the social economic development and employment situation,has been changing in every period,the policy anyhow at every stage has followed the former one’s direction in a certain aspect.Second,as for the trend of overall policy changes,with the passage of time and deepening of the reform,the government shows a more active attitude towards the farmer’s choices about "non-agricultural employment inside rural areas" and "rural labor flow to cities".Third,the political system innovation,which has been carrying out since reform,is a process from bottom to top with strong driving force first coming from the farmers.The policy at every stage has made reaction to the farmers’ employment behavior, although the reaction has lagged behind a little.During the interactive development of government’s policy and farmer’s employment behavior,farmers’ practice always comes first,and follows the reaction of the government according to their practice as well as other social subjects.Finally,the government may restrict their activities on a macro-policy level.更多还原