【作者】 刘晓喆；

【导师】 徐明棋；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 开放经济下,宏观经济运行必需兼顾内外均衡,即充分就业、物价稳定、适度经济增长和外部均衡四大目标的同时实现。由于在开放经济条件下,国内经济部门和对外经济部门的运行既紧密联系又相对独立,在某些条件下可能出现各自向不同方向变化并产生矛盾的情况,导致宏观调控目标面临冲突。最早提出开放经济下内外均衡矛盾的是英国经济学家詹姆士·米德。在其著作《国际收支》中,米德指出,在汇率固定不变时,政府只能主要运用影响社会总需求的政策来调节内外均衡,这样,在开放经济运行的特定区间,便会出现内外均衡难以兼顾的情形,即米德冲突。改革开放30年来,中国国民经济的整体开放度不断提高,以对外贸易总值占GDP比重衡量的我国实物经济部门的对外开放度2005年达到64%,金融部门的对外开放也日益扩大。伴随经济对外开放的扩大,宏观调控受国际因素的影响也越来越大,内外均衡矛盾日益成为对外开放新阶段困扰中国的难题。在1994-2006年我国宏观经济运行中,内外部均衡呈现出诸多矛盾,宏观调控面临两难或多难困境。根据西方开放宏观经济学理论,政策搭配是解决内外均衡矛盾的基本方法。其他国家的历史经验也表明,经济对外开放和国际经济关联程度的加深会带来内部均衡与外部均衡的矛盾,要实现经济的内外均衡,就必须针对本国经济发展特点和宏观经济运行状况,搭配运用各项政策,使每种政策工具都应用于它能产生最大效能的政策目标。从1994-2006年我国宏观经济政策搭配实践来看,政府采用财政、货币政策的搭配来实现经济增长、物价稳定、促进就业的内部经济目标,同时,通过买卖外汇储备来稳定因国际收支失衡而引发的人民币汇率波动。当外汇储备规模的变动影响到国内经济目标的实现时,再通过冲销操作来缓解这一矛盾。从冲销干预的效果来看,冲销干预并没能协调政策目标之间的冲突,中国面临明显的内外均衡矛盾。这与改革开放以来,中国长期实施的以“出口创汇”、“奖入限出”为主要特征的外贸、外资政策和以汇率稳定为政策目标的汇率政策密不可分。在这种汇率政策、外贸政策、国际资本流动调节政策组合下,经济发展带来的国际收支失衡必然通过外汇储备的变动,对基础货币投放产生影响,从而削弱货币政策的独立性,影响到国内物价稳定目标的实现。因此,对外开放新阶段,中国解决内外均衡矛盾的根本出路,就是在搭配运用各项政策,使每种政策工具都应用于它能产生最大效能的政策目标的同时,根据现实经济条件的转变,适时对我国的财政货币政策、汇率政策、外贸政策和国际资本流动调节政策进行调整。具体而言,改变激励型出口创汇政策,实施开放型进出口平衡发展的对外贸易战略;提高吸引外资的技术含量和研发含量,积极稳妥地发展对外投资;完善人民币汇率形成机制,增强人民币汇率的弹性与灵活性;实行适度从紧的货币政策,控制物价上涨幅度,保持内部经济平稳运行;改革外汇管理体制,逐步实现资本账户可自由兑换;加大财政政策对扩大内需的支持力度,使内需成为经济增长的主要拉动力量,等等。考虑到外部因素对我国经济的影响,中国内外均衡的实现,还需要加强国际经济政策协调与合作。论文在对西方开放经济下的宏观经济理论进行归纳、总结的基础上,具体分析了中国宏观经济运行中面临的内外均衡矛盾,并借鉴其他国家管理米德冲突的经验教训,探讨了开放经济下中国为实现经济内外均衡搭配运用的各项经济政策。论文除前言外,共分七章,主要内容如下:第一章:开放经济下内外均衡矛盾的理论分析。本章界定了开放经济下内部均衡与外部均衡的含义,分析了开放经济下内外均衡矛盾的产生原因、表现形式,并在对西方开放宏观经济学的政策搭配理论进行回顾的基础上,利用蒙代尔-弗莱明模型,讨论了开放经济下实现内外均衡的货币政策与财政政策的协调配合。第二章:米德冲突的国际案例分析。本章从开放经济条件下实行固定汇率制并允许资本自由流动所导致的米德难题出发,分析了阿根廷危机和亚洲金融危机爆发的必然性,并对在经济发展过程中,也曾遇到过与中国目前类似难题的日本、韩国成功管理米德冲突的经验进行了总结。最后,陈述了欧盟各国之间展开的财政、货币政策协调。通过对国际案例的分析,本章希望能为中国内外均衡矛盾的解决,提供宝贵的经验教训。第三章:开放经济下中国面临的内外均衡矛盾。首先,从对外开放的广度和深度两个方面,说明了中国经济对外开放的发展状况;其次,分三个阶段,考察了1994-2006年中国宏观经济运行中面临的内外均衡矛盾;最后,提出了开放经济下中国实现内外均衡的政策搭配思路。第四章:开放经济下中国协调内外均衡冲突的政策搭配之货币政策。在实现内外均衡的政策搭配中,货币政策主要用来实现物价稳定的政策目标。本章从实现经济内外均衡的角度,分析了开放经济下中国货币政策的独立性以及央行的外汇冲销操作。在当前中国协调内外均衡冲突的政策搭配中,政策目标上的冲突使货币政策的独立性随着基础货币投放内生性的增强而减弱。央行的冲销操作并没能协调经济政策之间的矛盾,内部经济运行出现通货膨胀或紧缩。第五章:开放经济下中国协调内外均衡冲突的政策搭配之汇率政策。随着经济开放度的提高和市场机制作用的增强,汇率政策已成为开放经济下中国实现国际收支平衡必不可少的政策工具。本章首先分析了汇率调整对宏观经济均衡的影响,然后从人民币汇率调整对贸易收支、短期资本流动、外商直接投资三个方面的影响,分析了汇率调整对平衡我国国际收支的作用。本章还回顾了1994年和2005年我国进行的人民币汇率制度改革,并提出进一步完善汇率政策在实现经济内外均衡中的作用的建议。第六章:开放经济下中国协调内外均衡冲突的政策搭配之国际资本流动调节政策。中国长期实施的“宽进严出”的国际资本流动调节政策在推动经济增长、扩大就业的同时,也深化了内外均衡矛盾,使宏观调控面临诸多政策目标上的冲突。本章着重从资本和金融项目差额与国际收支顺差、外商直接投资与经常项目顺差、短期资本流动和净误差与遗漏、外资膨胀导致国内外资金运用上的不协调以及内外失衡、国际资本流动对货币供应的影响五个方面,分析我国的国际资本流动调节政策对实现经济内外均衡的影响。此外,还对开放经济下中国国际资本流动状况以及我国国际资本流动调节政策的新发展进行了讨论。第七章:开放经济下中国协调内外均衡冲突的政策搭配之对外贸易政策。在外贸体制改革的推动下,1994年至今我国货物贸易持续顺差且差额不断扩大。贸易顺差对解决中国经济发展过程中面临的外汇短缺、促进经济增长以及增加就业发挥了巨大作用,但也扩大了国际收支失衡、加大人民币升值压力,外汇储备的快速增长还影响到国内物价稳定目标的实现。本章分析了中国长期实施的出口导向型外贸发展战略对宏观经济内外均衡的影响,并通过对外贸依存度的讨论,说明协调内需与外需关系,依靠内需拉动经济增长对减少贸易收支顺差、实现经济均衡发展的重要意义。当然,这需要根据国内外经济形势的变化,适时转变开放战略,实施开放型进出口平衡发展的对外贸易政策,并通过财政政策的协调配合来积极扩大内需。论文希望在以下几点有所突破:第一,论文指出宏观经济内外均衡应该是一种优化的均衡。内部均衡意味着一国资源的充分利用,实现充分就业和适度经济增长,保持国内价格稳定等;外部均衡则指一国既没有因国际收支赤字危机而使得将来无力偿还外债,也没有由于过度盈余而使他国陷入这种境地,同时保持汇率稳定。除此之外,一国在考虑外部均衡时,往往还要关注其他一些经济目标,如贸易收支平衡、国内外资本流动的稳定性和对外经济部门的结构平衡等。因此,优化的外部均衡并不等同于国际收支平衡,而是与一国宏观经济发展相适应的合理的国际收支结构,经常账户差额、贸易账户差额、外汇储备账户差额以及资本和金融账户差额等,都属于外部均衡目标的范畴。第二,论文结合典型案例,系统地归纳了经济内外均衡矛盾的产生机制:(1)来自经济体外部的冲击,包括实际经济因素的外部冲击和金融性外部冲击;(2)经济体内部的自发扰动,如国内支出的自发性增长或衰退、技术进步带来的劳动生产率提高和供给增加、经济发展带来的消费结构变化、市场化和国际化过程中的结构效应等;(3)经济政策的不协调,包括本国经济政策不协调和国际经济政策的不协调。第三,论文进一步指出,中国面临的内外均衡矛盾,其产生机制主要来自三个方面:一是来自经济体外部的冲击,主要是全球化加速下的国际要素流动以及生产要素在中国的集聚;二是经济体内部的自发扰动,即中国经济内部存在的结构性失衡;三是经济政策的不协调,如中国汇率政策与货币政策的冲突、中美两国利率调整上的不同步等。第四,论文强调了加强国际经济政策协调对解决中国内外均衡矛盾的重要性。鉴于外部因素对中国经济的重大影响,中国内外均衡的实现离不开国际经济政策协调与合作。从解决经济内外均衡矛盾的角度来讨论国际经济政策协调,是一个较为新颖的视角,为我国内外均衡的实现,提供了一种较新的思维模式。当然,目前“中国威胁论”仍在国际上流行,这对我国国际经济政策协调的展开产生不利影响。如何更好地通过国际经济政策协调与合作来实现宏观经济内外均衡,值得学术界就此展开进一步的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the Open Economy, the regulation of Macro-economy must achieve internal equilibrium and external equilibrium, that is, sufficient job positions, stable prices, suitable development of economy and external equilibrium, all these are fulfilled at the same time. And under such circumstance, the relationship between the internal economic department and the external economic department is not only close but relative independent. In some conditions it even can cause contradictions and lead to conflicts of regulation of Macro-economy. James Meade is the first economist who proposed the contradictions of inward equilibrium and outward equilibrium under the Open Economy. In his book“The Balance of Payments”, Meade said, the only way for the government to regulate the contradictions was using the policy which affected the whole demands of the society. And during the specific period of the Open Economy, there would produce difficulties of regulating the contradictions, which called Meade’s conflict.After thirty years’Reform and Opening-up, the degree of Chinese opening of the domestic economy increases gradually. The opening to the Outside world of the economic department is also enlarged so as to the international factors affect the Macro-economy more and more which cause the contradictions of internal equilibrium and external equilibrium important to regulate the macroeconomy in the new period of the opening to the outside world. From 1994 to 2006, there were so many contradictions between internal equilibrium and external equilibrium which means difficulties confronted in China .The basic method of solving this problem is policy combination, such as choosing different policies according to diverse environments to realize the optimized matching of the economic policy. The optimized matching is to achieve the corresponding relation between the efficiency of the policy targets and the policy tools. From the practices of the macro-economy policy during 1994 and 2006, the targets of the internal economy such as increasing economy, stable prices and promoting employment, were realized by the combination of financial and monetary policies. Meanwhile, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate caused by the unbalance of international payment was stabilized via bargain of foreign exchange reserve. When the change of the scale of the foreign exchange began to influence the realization of the target of internal economy, sterilized intervention was adopted to solve this problem. But from the results, it showed that it couldn’t regulate the contradictions. It was due to the trade policy characterized by earning foreign exchange through export , the actively attracting foreign capital policy and the stable exchange rate policy. Under such combination, the macro-regulation of government confronted with the conflict between economy increasing with unemployment decreasing and the balance of international payment, stable prices, and steady exchange rate of RMB. To solve Meade’s conflict and realize internal equilibrium and external equilibrium, it needs to regulate the traditional economic policies according to the actual conditions of Chinese economy, and finally reaches the optimized matching of the policies of monetary, exchange rate, regulation of the flow of international and external trade policies.On the basis of the principle theory of western macroeconomics, this paper analyzed the contradictions between internal and external equilibrium of Chinese macro-economic regulation, and studied the policies of monetary, exchange rate, regulation of the flow of international investment and external trade under the Open Economy.This paper consists of seven chapters except preface.(1) At first, the theory of internal equilibrium and external equilibrium under the open economy was presented. We analyzed the producing reasons and the manifestation of the contradictions between inward equilibrium and outward equilibrium and discussed the solving method, combination of financial policy and monetary policy which using Mundell-Fleming Model.(2) From the Meade’s conflict which caused by the fixed exchange rate policy and free capital movements, we analyzed the inevitability of the Argentine crisis and the Asia financial crisis. Then, we summarized the successful experiences of Japan and Korea to control Meade’s conflict when they were in the same difficulties as those China now encounters. At last, we described the coordination of the financial and monetary policies holding on European Union.(3) The developing status of Chinese economy was stated from two aspects, width and depth. By divided the period, from 1994 to 2006, into three different parts, we studied the contradictions between internal and external equilibrium of Chinese macro-economic regulation. Then, we made a summarization of the policy combination and proposed an efficient method.(4) During the realization of the policy combination, monetary policy is mainly used to adjust the price level and to achieve stable prices. So we analyzed the independence of the Chinese monetary policy and the sterilization of foreign exchange by central bank under the open economy. In current policy combination, conflicts of political target lead to the independence of monetary policy waken with the capability of the endogenous character of base monetary increasing, so as to produce inflation or deflation. The sterilization of foreign exchange by central bank didn’t smooth the conflicts between monetary policy and exchange rate policy.(5) With the degree of the open economy and the ability of market increasing, exchange rate policy has been an inevitable tool to realize the balance of international payment. But under the target of stabling RMB exchange rate, it produces conflicts between exchange policy and monetary policy. Here we analyzed the effects of the exchange rate regulation to the operation of internal and external economy. By reviewing the two reforms of RMB exchange rate policy in 1994 and 2005 separately, we emphasized on the fluctuant exchange rate policy with regulation using a basket of currencies. As for the effect of the regulation of RMB exchange rate on the the balance of international payment, we analyzed it in three aspects including trade balance, short-term capital flow, and foreign direct investment.(6) Since Reform and Opening-up, China implements "Easy in And Strict out" capital flow regulation policy and attracts foreign capital. Though the large amount of the input foreign capital devoted to the increase of economy and employment, it aggravated the unbalance of external economy, and lead macro regulation to face the contradiction between economy increase, unemployment lessen and the balance of international payment, stable prices and steady exchange rate. In this chapter we focused on five parts to analyze the effect of international capital flow regulation policy on the internal and external equilibrium of Chinese macro-economy, such as the capital and financial difference to the balance of international payment, foreign direct investment to trade balance, the short-term capital flow to the net errors and omissions, foreign capital inflation to incongruity which leads to saving gap and trade gap, and international capital flow to money supply. Besides, we discussed on the new development on the international capital flow regulation policy.(7) Since Reform and Opening-up, an extraordinary feature of Chinese economic development is the continuous and fast increases of foreign trade under the promotion of the reform on the trade policy. Since 1994, our trade sustained surplus and the difference was enlarged. Undoubtedly, surplus had done significantly to solve the foreign exchange deficit during the developing process of economy, to promote the increases of Chinese economy and employment. But it affected the balance of international payment, aggravated the press of RMB Appreciation. As the unbalance of external economy increased, the development of internal economy was affected by the liquidity surplus which caused by excessive increase of foreign exchange reserve, and all these produced the contradictions of macro-economic regulation between internal equilibrium and external equilibrium. We analyzed the effect of the long-term implemented strategy of export leading type foreign trade to the current balance of macro-economy. By discussing on the dependence of foreign trade, we described the relationship between domestic demand and external demand, and pointed out the emphasis of depending on the domestic demand to decrease the trade surplus.The contributions of this paper were stated as followed.(1) This paper pointed out that the inward and outward equilibrium of macro-economy should be optimized. Internal equilibrium means sufficient utilization of national resources, fulfilled employment, suitable and fast increases of economy, stable prices and so on. External equilibrium refers to that there is no deficit crisis in international payment which will cause no ability to pay off the debt in the future, and there is no excessive surplus to lead other country into this dilemma. Besides, there are some other factors should be considered such as trade payment balance, internal and external capital flow stability, structural balance of economy department. So the optimized outward equilibrium is not equivalent to the balance of international payment, but an international payment structure suitable to the development of macro-economy.(2) This paper synthesized the principle of the producing of the contradictions between internal and external equilibrium. The first reason is the impact of the external economy including the actual economic factors and financial impacts. The second is the spontaneous disturbance of the internal economy, such as the spontaneous increase or recession of domestic payment, the growth of production and increase of supply caused by developed technology, the change of consumption structure, structural effects of marketization and internationalization. The last is the incongruity of economic policy, including international and domestic economic policies.(3) This paper analyzed the main three reasons of the principle of the producing of the contradictions between internal and external equilibrium in China in detailed. The external impact mainly refers to the aggravating of the international factors’fluctuation and producing factors under the fast internationalization. The spontaneous disturbance of the internal economy means the unbalance of the structure of the domestic Chinese economy. The incongruity of economic policy includes the conflicts between Chinese exchange rate policy and monetary policy, and the asynchrony of the exchange rate regulation between China and America.(4) Finally, this paper emphasized on the importance of the coordination of international economic policy to solve the contradictions confronted in China. Due to the significant effect of the external factors to the economic unbalance, the fundamental method is the coordination of the international economic policies. It is a new viewpoint to discuss the coordination of the international economic policies from the perspectives of solving thecontradictions between internal equilibrium and external equilibrium.Certainly, the word, China threat, is still exists around the world which causes bad effects to the international coordination of Chinese economic policy. It needs further investigation on how to solving the confronted contradictions by the international economic policy combination.更多还原