【作者】 屈小博；

【导师】 霍学喜；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【副题名】基于陕西省果农的理论与实证

【摘要】 不断扩大的国内外市场和日益开放的农产品贸易有助于中国农业生产的市场化和结构调整,也给从事劳动密集型高价值农产品生产经营的农户带来了更大的市场机遇和挑战。这部分农户已逐渐转向专业化生产,普遍成为参与市场经营的主体,其经济活动以及所生产的产品全部卷入市场交易。农户市场化行为选择将成为扩大中小规模农户抓住农产品消费转型的市场机遇和参与市场竞争,以至提高我国农产品竞争力的重要源泉。国内研究农户行为的论著较多,但针对市场化、专业化经营程度较高的具体农业产业领域的农户行为研究仍显不足。本文以从事高价值农产品生产经营的农户——陕西省苹果主产区果农为例,初步构建了农户市场行为分析框架,采用数理分析、计量经济分析和统计分析等实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法,从农户微观视角,对不同经营规模农户生产、销售、消费、流通等主要市场行为特征及影响因素进行深入研究,探究不同经营规模农户主要市场行为特征及面临的约束,为增加高价值农产品经营农户参与市场的机会,提高农户生产效率,强化市场经营行为,引导农户适应国内、国际大市场及提高其竞争力,提供理论和实证依据。论文的主要研究内容和重要观点如下:第一章导论。从我国加入WTO后农户面临的国际国内市场环境变化与生产劳动密集型农产品的农户所具有的比较优势,着重阐述了本文的研究背景、农户市场行为研究的目的和意义。在此基础上,对国内外有关农户行为研究动态作了较为全面、客观的综述和评价,阐明进一步深入研究农户的行为特征、定量研究方法的设计与应用,以及理论研究与具体农业产业领域的农户生产经营特点相结合,揭示农户市场化、专业化行为特征,依然是值得关注和研究的重要领域。根据本文研究的目的,构思出本文研究的技术线路和运用的主要研究方法,同时总结了本文研究的创新之处。第二章不同规模农户市场行为分析框架。首先,本章从国际贸易理论角度,对高价值农产品、劳动密集型农产品、农户生产经营的市场化与专业化,以及农户市场行为内涵进行界定和理论阐述。其次,运用规范分析方法,初步构建了包含生产者-消费者、生产技术效率、风险偏好、交易成本、流通专业化组织的农户市场行为分析框架,从理论上阐述农户生产、销售、消费、流通等主要市场行为的研究侧重点。再次,农户市场行为研究必须以具体产业类型农户作为分析对象,所选的样本农户个体差异较大,适宜的研究视角切入有助于分析和把握重点,本文阐述了选取不同经营规模作为全文分析视角的理由及农户不同经营规模划分的依据。第三章不同规模农户生产技术效率及技术选择行为。本章重点从投入产出的技术关系(生产函数)和技术选择(生产技术)两方面分析农户生产行为,建立和运用超越对数形式随机前沿生产函数(Translog SFA)数理模型,采用陕西省苹果主产区果农微观调查数据,估计不同规模农户生产技术效率及效率损失的影响因素;运用统计分析,揭示了市场化、专业化生产经营农户技术选择与采用的行为特征与偏好。通过不同规模农户生产技术效率及技术选择行为分析,得出以下结论和认识:一是经营规模与农户生产技术效率呈现“倒U型”效应趋势,中等经营规模农户生产效率最高,为76.98%,全体样本户生产技术效率平均值为72.87%,在现有技术和生产要素投入下农户技术效率提升的空间较大。二是在三种经营规模农户中,教育和技术培训等人力资本投资、科技信息的传播对农户生产技术效率都具有显著的正效应,从事非农产业、转包耕地和信用可得性等影响因素有负效应,家庭规模、户主年龄、农民合作组织等因素对不同规模生产效率影响不显著。三是农户技术选择与需求偏好特征主要表现为:不同规模农户技术需求类型选择与生产经营收益和成本付出多少紧密相关;小规模农户的技术获取渠道与中等规模农户、较大规模农户选择行为有明显差异;三种规模农户获取技术信息途径选择行为有助于生产管理技术更快、更低廉的在农户中间传播;不同规模农户技术使用预期效果选择偏好是由农户生产竞争力所能保留的程度,以及他们所能参与高价值农产品市场的程度所决定。第四章不同规模农户风险认知与规避行为。针对从事劳动密集型高价值农产品生产的农户面临日益多样化的经营风险,采用多类别列联表分析(Crosstabs)、卡方检验等统计方法,以陕西省苹果主产区果农为例,研究农户生产经营风险来源、不同规模农户风险认知行为及风险规避行为。得出如下判断和结论:一是除了农业生产的传统风险如气候、自然灾害等,农村生产资料市场供应混乱及质量问题也是产量风险主要的来源,市场风险来源主要是价格不确定性、市场信息可得性以及销售流通渠道困难等。二是农户风险认知行为分析表明,其生产经营中市场风险比产量风险更加普遍,不同规模农户对产量风险和市场风险的认知行为差异明显,市场风险对经营规模大的农户影响小于规模较小的农户。三是农户自身规避风险行为在不同规模农户中具有趋同性特征,差异微弱。三种规模农户借助外部力量规避风险的行为差异不明显,总体上不同规模农户严重缺乏规避产量风险和市场风险的有效制度安排和机制措施。第五章不同规模农户销售行为及影响因素。基于陕西省苹果主产区果农微观调查数据资料,应用交易成本理论,对不同规模农户销售途径选择行为、市场信息获取行为的统计分析,交易成本影响农户销售行为的理论模型(Order Probit概率模型)设计与运用,影响因素的量化方法选择与估计,形成以下观点和结论:一是农产品生产体系不断向商品化和专业化转变的条件下,农产品销售环节与传统市场制度的分离加重了市场参与者的成本,交易成本成为影响农户参与市场的核心变量。二是交易成本对不同规模农户销售行为的影响及差异显著。信息成本对三类经营规模农户都有较强约束,农户都缺乏及时、可靠的市场信息来源,获取市场信息的成本较高;由于不同经营规模农户参与市场的“进入能力”和“留住能力”不同,谈判成本对三类经营规模农户销售行为的影响差异比较明显;执行(监测)成本对经营规模较大农户销售行为的负面影响明显小于对中小经营规模农户的负面影响;农户特征变量对其销售行为的影响不显著。三是不同规模农户销售途径选择行为倾向集中反映了从事专业化高价值农产品经营的农户在市场交易中面临较大约束;不同规模农户市场信息获取行为有趋同性,获取信息的来源可靠程度有一定显著差异。本文认为,由于交易成本对不同规模农户农产品销售行为的影响存在显著差异,降低交易成本能够增加农户参与市场机会,因而政府支持的着眼点最好集中在增加公共产品供给及制度改革方面。第六章农户消费行为的理论与经验分析。着重从三个层面研究市场化背景下,农户消费行为的特征与需求偏好。一是采用包含陕西省苹果主产区样本果农的陕西农调队2005年农户微观调查数据,建立LES-AIDS两阶段预算完整需求系统方程,估计农户消费行为的一般特征规律。研究发现,食品、衣着、燃料、住房、耐用消费品及其它均缺乏价格弹性,住房、耐用消费品及其它支出弹性大于1,仍然属于奢侈品,食品支出弹性小于1属于必需品;牛肉、猪肉、家禽等支出弹性较高,粮食、蔬菜等生活必需品支出弹性较低,农户自身特征变量对农户消费模式影响显著,不同收入组农户食品消费结构有明显差异。二是采用陕西省农家史料时间序列数据,研究农户非食品消费行为的一般特征。研究表明,市场提供农户消费商品和服务越多,对引导农户消费行为越明显,农户消费需求与市场导向相互作用。三是基于陕西省苹果主产区果农调查数据,对市场化专业化生产经营的农户消费行为研究表明,不同规模农户消费行为总体上呈现一个趋同性特征,显著特征是其消费行为有强烈的服务于生产的倾向,专业化经营的不同规模农户消费行为面临基本生活消费成本增加和农村消费品供给不足双重约束。第七章中介组织对不同规模农户参与市场行为的影响。本章从农户微观角度,采用定量、定性及案例分析相结合的方法,重点分析了四类流通中介组织对不同规模农户参与农产品市场行为的影响。得出以下结论:一是农户流通型专业协会对不同规模农户参与市场行为的影响取决于其是否能实质性的降低农产品交易成本,农户对其认知程度较低,但对这类农民合作组织的需求较强烈。二是农民经纪人组织对不同规模农户参与农产品市场营销行为有重要的影响,但同时农民经纪人“获利动机”的负面影响已经显现。三是不同规模农户直接参与农产品批发市场中介组织交易成本过高,面临较大流通约束,导致农产品批发市场规模和组织效应对不同规模农户参与市场行为影响比较微弱,没有显著差异。四是由于“公司+农户”组织模式与合约安排制度不完善,是一种农产品即期交易模式,连接不同规模农户效果不明显,没有显著差异。本文提出,发挥中介组织连农户与市场的有效组织模式是农民中介组织与市场中介组织的有效对接。第八章结论评述与政策建议。本文理论与实证研究表明,不同经营规模农户在生产技术效率与技术选择行为、风险认知与规避行为、农产品销售行为等充分体现农户市场经营行为特征的方面存在一定显著差异。由于组织制度、市场环境和区域农村经济发展现状的因素,不同经营规模农户在消费行为市场化需求、流通市场中介组织对农户参与市场行为的影响等方面没有显著差异,这些市场行为特征存在一定程度的趋同性。在此基础上本文从5个方面提出了具体的政策建议,着重强调政策措施对劳动密集型高价值农产品经营农户参与市场能力及竞争能力的效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the expanding market and the increasing opening-up of agricultural product trade is bringing about the marketization and structural adjustification into China’s agricultural production, they bring also opportunity and challenge to Chinese farmers engaged in high-value labor-intensive agricultural production. These farmers is on the way of professional production, participating as the mainbody in market management, accordingly their economic activities and products are to be involved in market transaction. Hence, the market behavior of Chinese farmers is vital not only to their competitiveness as individual in market but the competitiveness of Chinese agricultural product in international market as a whole. Current study on farmer households’behavior is too general and fails to dig deep into this problem by focusing on one certain type of agricultural industry. This dissertation aims to solve this problem. Using Tanslog Stochastic Frontier Production Function Model and a large set of first-hand household-level survey data from apple growers in Shaanxi Province, this dissertation makes an indepth study of the characteristics of basic market behaviors such as production, marketing, consumption and circulation of different farmer size and their influencing factors, in an attempt to explore the restrictions that each is faced with and enhance the productivity of farmer households and their competitveness in global market.This dissertation consists of eight chapters, the main content of each chapter is as follows:Chapter 1 briefly introduces the main purpose, the theoretical basis, the main research method and the framework. It elabotates the research background, the purpose and the significance of a study on farmer households’market behavior with a brief view of a changing domestic and international market after China’s accession into WTO and the comparative advantage of farmers engaging in labor-intensive agricultural products; then it makes a thorough and objective review of studies in this area at home and abroad and specifies the necessisty of a quantitative study on farmer-household’s behavior characteristics focusing on a specific type of agiculture industry; then it summarise the method and the data, and finally it mentions the possible originality of this study.Chapter 2 is a general analysis of farmer household’s market behavior. This chapter firstly gives definitions on terms like high-value agricultural product, labor-intensive agricultural product, farmer household’s productive marketization and specialization from international trade perspective combining with the facts of farmer household’s productive marketization and specialization in china; secondly, it constructs a tentative analysis framework including producer-consumer, production technical efficiency, risk preference, transaction cost, circulation, specialized organization and points out which aspects should be emphasized in a study on farmer households’market behavior like producing, consuming, marketing, circulation. Finally, it explains the reason of choosing farmer household of different size as the analysis basis of this study and provides a definition on farmer household market behavior.Chapter 3 is about the production technical efficiency and technical choice behavior of different farmer size. This chapter mainly analysizes farmer household’s production behavior from the aspects of technical relation, productive function and technical choice. Using Tanslog Stochastic Frontier Production Function Model and a large set of first-hand household-level survey data from fruit growers in Shaanxi Province, this chapter makes an attempt at both theoretical and empirical analysis of the production technical efficiency of different farmer size and its influencing factors. The conclusion are: firstly, management size and farmer households’production technical efficiency displays an inverted“U”tendency, that means, medium-sized farmer households have a higher production efficiency than both small-sized and large-sized, and have a bigger room for technical efficiency enhancement; technical efficiency loss shows that regardless of farm size, human resources investment like education, technical training, the extension and popularization of sci-tech information have a marked positive effect on the production efficiency of farmer households, while non-farm management, arable land subtraction and credit availability a negative effect, beaides other factors like family size, age and agro-cooperatives do not show a marked effect. Secondly, concerning technical choice behavior and demand preference feature, there is a high relativity between choice of technical demand type and production management income and cost of farmer households of different size, and a marked difference is found between small-sized and medium as well as large-sized farmer household in terms of the channels trough which they get agricultural technology.Chapter 4 gives an analysis of risk cognition of different farmer size and their dodging acts. Farmer households engaged in labor-intensive high value agricultural product are faced with various management risks today. Using statistics analysis method like Crosstabs test andχ2 tests and based on first-hand household-level survey data gathered from Shaanxi Province, this chapter mainly studies on origins of farmer households’production and management risks and risk cognition of different farmer size and their dodging acts. The conclusions are: firstly, besides climate, natural disaster and plant diseases, insect pests, the risk for peasants engaged in high-value agro-product production and management lies in two aspects, namely, output risk and market risk. That the non-standard market supply of means of production in rurul area leads to quality problem of agricultural chemical and chemical fertilizer constitutes the main output risk. Market risks are caused mainly by factors like price uncertainty, market information accessibility and marketing circulation channel. Secondly, the tests shows that market risk is more common than output risk in production management and does less influence to large-sized farmer household than smaller ones. Farmer households of different size and characteristics differ in their cognition of output risks and market risks. Thirdly, single farmer household is at passive position when faced with output risk and market risk.Chapter 5 is a general analysis of the marketing behavior of different farmer size and its influencing factors. Based on transaction cost theory and data from Shaanxi Province, choice of marketing channels and access to market information of different farm size are observed and analysized to estimate the relative importance of various transaction costs and farm characteristic variables for the choice of marketing channel. The conclusions are: firstly, with the commercialization and specialization of agricultural production, seperation between marketing of agricultural product and traditional market system magnify participants’transaction cost, thus transaction cost becomes a core variable that affecs the marketing behavior of farmers. Secondly, transaction cost is statistically significant in influencing the marketing behavior of farmer household of different size. Information cost for farmers are relatively high and does not vary greatly across farmers of different size; the influence of negotiation cost on farmers of different size shows a marked difference; the negative impacts of monitoring costs on large-sized farm households are distinctly slighter than that of medium-sized and small-sized; farm households’characteristic variables do not impose significant influence on sales behavior. thirdly, overall inclination on choice of marketing channels reflects that a relatively high restriction is imposed on farmers of high-value agro-products when they are drawn into market transaction, and choice of access to market information by farmer households of different size are highly similar while the reliability of information source shows a marked difference. The paucity of information media avaible in rural area put a restriction on the alternatives that famers may employ to gain access to information.Chapter 6 is a theoretical and empirical analysis on farmer households’consumption behavior. This chapter mainly investigates farmer households’consumption behavior characteristics and their demand preference from three levels. Firstly, estimation on micro-characteristics of rural household’s consumption behavior is made by using a two-stage LES-AIDS model and Rural Households’Microdata from Shaanxi Province in 2005. The results indicate that for commodity groups (food, clothing, fuel, housing, durable consumer goods and other commodities), demand is price-inelastic. Housing, durable consumer goods and other commodities are luxury goods, while clothing and food are necessities. Within the food group, price elasticities range from -0.362 to -0.942. Expenditure elasticities are lower for grains, sugar and vegetables and higher for pork, beef, and poultry. Evidence of household characteristic variables itself having a significant effect on food consumption pattern are also found. Secondly, the analysis on rural households’non-food consumption behavior shows that the guiding effect of market on farmer household’s consumption behavior strengthened correspondingly with the number of consumer goods and service that the market can provides to farmers. Thirdly, analysis of consumption behavior of different farmer size in specialized production based on household-level survey data from apple growers in Shaanxi Province reveals a general similarity in their consumption behavior and strong tendency to serve agricultural production.Besides, farmer households in specialized production are faced with the increase of living expenditure and the paucity of rural consumer goods supply.Chapter 7 gives an overview of the influence of intermediary organization on farmers’participation in the couse of agricultural product circulation. The conclusions are: Firstly, agro-cooperatives’influence on farmers’participation in the process of market circulation is largely dependent on whether they can reduce transaction cost and help farmers sell their produce. Secondly, farmer brokers play an important role in the process of the marketing of agricultural products. Thirdly, agricultural product wholesale market has a slight influence on farmers’participation in market since farmers are faced with high cost if they make a direct negotiation on price with intermiediary organization in wholesale market. Fourthly, the effectiveness of“company plus farmer household”pattern in leading farmer households participating in market is significantly influenced by its organizing pattern and contract arrangement institution.Chapter 8 is a summary of the whole paper. It concludes what the author has done in the research, its originality and put forward some policy implications.更多还原