【作者】 史玉光；

【导师】 孙照渤；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 气象学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 新疆约占中国陆地面积的六分之一,是典型的干旱、半干旱地区,水资源分布极不均匀,是影响和制约新疆经济社会发展与生态环境保护的关键因素。本文利用新疆区域144个气象站和水文站的1961～2005年降水资料和美国NCEP/NCAR公布的1961—2000年再分析逐日格点资料,采用了自然正交分解(EOF)、多元回归分析、最大熵谱值分析等方法,结合数字高程模型(DEM)1km×1km网格数据,对新疆区域面雨量年季分布特征和变化规律以及高空水汽输送、大气可降水量状况进行了分析研究。结果表明:新疆区域年平均面雨量约为2724.6亿吨,年平均降水量为165.5mm。从空间分布来看,天山山区面雨量最大,约占全疆面雨量的40.4%,该区域年平均降水量为409.1mm;北疆地区次之占34.3%,年降水量为277.3mm;南疆地区最少约为25.3%,年平均降水量仅有66.2mm。从四季分布来看,夏季面雨量最大,约占全年面雨量的54.4%,春季次之为23.6%,秋季为16.5%,冬季最少约为5.5%。近45年新疆区域面雨量年际变化幅度较大,呈现出增多的趋势,尤其是1987年以后降水明显增多。新疆区域面雨量的变化主要表现为3年左右周期振荡。新疆地区高空水汽年平均流入量为26114.8亿吨,年平均流出量为25645.7亿吨,水汽净收入量为469.1亿吨。由于三面环山的特殊地形,新疆地区四季和年对流层中层水汽输送量最大,低层和高层接近。夏季水汽输送量最大,约占全年的38%左右,春、秋季相当,约占全年的23%—25%,冬季最少。近40年新疆年平均、春、夏和秋季空中水汽总流入量、总流出量为减少趋势,变化率很接近,且1976年后无明显变化趋势,使得净收支量无显著变化趋势。新疆区域年大气可降水量(APW)的空间分布呈塔里木盆地和准格尔盆地为高值区,海拔高的阿勒泰山、天山和昆仑山为低值区。从季节分布来看,夏季APW最大,但小于同纬度东部季风区,春、秋次之,冬季最少,春、秋和冬季APW与同纬度东部季风接近。夏季的APW小于季风区界限值25 mm,从该角度表明新疆为非季风区。APW的地理分布与实际降水量分布相反,其最大(最小)区域却为降水量最小(最大)区,受西风带影响,新疆APW模态主要表现全疆一致变化,分布稳定,与降水模态分布差异性大有显著不同,且近40年来无显著变化趋势,表明决定新疆降水差异的根本原因不在于水汽的多少,而是由降水产生的动力条件、水汽辐合和其它因素差异决定的。开都河、阿克苏河年径流量的变化与面雨量、夏季0℃层高度、温度有着十分密切的关系,说明20世纪80年代中期以来新疆气候的变化是开都河、阿克苏河径流稳定增加的一个非常重要的因素。总之,本论文使用部分新资料,考虑了海拔高度对降水插值效果的影响,设计了新的空间数据插值方案,得出了新疆区域年平均面雨量、近45年新疆区域面雨量年际变化呈现增多的趋势、新疆高空水汽收支、新疆大气可降水量的时空分布以及新疆主要流域的面雨量等新结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accounting for about sixth of Chinese land,Xinjiang Uiger Autonomous Region is a typical arid and semi-arid area,water resources distribute extremely asymmetrically and have been a vital factor to restrict the economic and social developments and ecological protections in this region.This paper analyses annual and seasonal distribution and change characteristics of areal precipitation,explores water vapor transportations in high altitude and Atmospheric Precipitable Water(APW) in Xinjiang by using 144 meteorological and hydrological stations during 1961～2005,daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961～2000 and 1km×1km DEM data.The methodologies include EOF,multi-regression analysis,maximum entropy analysis and Geographic Information System.The results show that:in Xinjiang,annual mean areal precipitation is around 2724.6×10~8ton,annual mean precipitation is 165.5mm.As spatial distributions,there is the most areal precipitation in Tianshan mountainous region,accounting for about 40.4%out of total Xinjiang areal precipitation,its annual mean precipitation is 409.1mm;the second high value is in northern Xinjiang,the percentage of areal precipitation in this area is about 34.3%and the annual mean precipitation is 277.3mm;Southern Xinjiang has the least areal precipitation which is some 25.3%out of total and its annual mean precipitation is only 66.2mm.To seasonal distributions, summer has the most areal precipitation which is about 54.4%out of annual total.The areal precipitation in other three seasons respectively are:spring is 23.6%,autumn is 16.5%and winter is only 5.5%.Over the past 45 years of 1961～2005,the interannual variation range of areal precipitation in Xinjiang was relatively larger and presented an increasing trend,especially from 1987,precipitation increased significantly.Areal precipitation in Xinjiang also showed a about 3-year periods swing.The annual mean inflow water vapor to Xinjiang in high altitude is about 26114.8×10~8ton,annual mean outflow is around 469.1×10~8ton.Due to the special terrain of three sides mountains in north,west and south,the annual and seasonal maximum water vapor transportations are all in medium troposphere,with less but close quantity of water vapor transferring in low and high tropospheres.The most water vapor coming and out Xinjiang area occurs in summer,accounting for about 38%out of annual total;In spring and autumn,the water vapor quantities are almost same,about 23%—25%;In winter,it’s the least.During the 40 years(1961～2000),there were decrease trends in inflows and outflows of annual,spring and autumn means with very near variation rates.There were no obvious changes in water vapor in and out of Xinjiang after 1976,therefore the net budget of water vapor in high altitude above Xinjiang kept no much change.The distribution of annual mean APW in Xinjiang presents as higher values in Tarim Basin and Zhunger Basin and lower values in high elevation areas such as Altai mountains,Tianshan mountains and Kunlun mountains.The maximum APW occurs in summer,but compares with east monsoon areas in the same latitude.In spring and autumn,the APWs are relatively less compared with in summer and in winter the APW is least.Except APW in summer,APWs in other three seasons are almost same as the east monsoon areas in the same latitude.The APW in summer is less than 25 mm which is the least limit value of monsoon areas.This means that Xinjiang is not affected by monsoon.The geographic distribution of APW is adverse with that of precipitation,videlicet,higher(lower)APW values corresponding to lower(higher) precipitation values.With the effects of westerly winds,the APW mode presents as an uniform change within Xinjiang area and has a stable distribution.It is very different from Xinjiang rainfall mode which changes a lot spatially.As mentioned above,there is no obvious change during 1961～2000,this indicates that APW is not a dominant factor determining precipitation,it is the result of dynamic condition,water vapor convergence and other causes.The results also show strong relationships among the changes of runoffs of Kidu River,Aksu River and areal precipitation,0℃height and temperature.These close relationships implie that climate change was the main cause which led to stable runoff increases of these rivers from the medium 1980s.In conclusion,by using a lot of new data and designing new interpolating scheme with considering effect of elevation on preicpitation spatial interpolation,we got some new results in Xinjiang such as annual mean areal precipitation,the interannual variation of areal precipitation presented an increasing trend during 1961～2005,the budget of annual mean water vapor in high altitude spatio-temporal distribution of annual mean APW and areal precipitations in some main river basens.更多还原