【作者】 张莉侠；

【导师】 孟令杰；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 乳制品业在国民经济中占有重要地位，世界各国都普遍重视乳制品业的发展。发展中国家特别是亚洲国家近年来也把发展乳制品业作为提高国民营养水平和民族素质、促进经济发展的重要措施来抓。例如，埃及在制定农业发展战略的各个五年计划中，把乳制品业发展放在第一位；印度从1970年起就在全国开展“洪流行动”大力发展乳制品业。中国的乳制品业是解放后才逐渐形成的，上世纪50年代国家才开始有计划地发展乳制品业，到1978年乳制品产量仅4.7万吨，远不能满足人民生活的需要。1978年以后，中国的乳制品业进入了持续高速增长时期，但是由于市场规律作用，进入90年代以来，乳制品业几度出现波动。1996和1998年乳制品生产滑坡，其中1996年产量下跌了4.2％，1998年下跌了2.8％。这两次下跌与中国乳制品结构不合理、不能适应市场需要有关(中国奶业课题组，2001)。中国加入WTO以后，随着贸易自由化的程度不断提高，乳制品业将在更大的范围内面临激烈的竞争。由于中国乳制品业起步较晚，在近年来的发展过程中问题频出，曾一度出现过度竞争的不良局面(王威、顾海英，2005)，还原奶、早产奶、鲜奶标识等问题一直困扰着中国乳制品业。同时乳制品业的绩效水平较低，据国家统计局的资料，2002～2004年的三年间，乳制品企业的利润率分别是6.8％、6.1％和5.4％，逐年降低。2004年，销售收入前10位的乳制品企业的利润率仅为4.9％，低于行业平均水平，如此低的利润势必影响企业的发展后劲，因此如何提高乳制品业的绩效水平成为政府、业界和学者共同关注的问题。本文将以乳制品业的生产效率与绩效为主线，研究近年来中国乳制品业迅速发展过程中全要素生产率及生产效率的变动程度；分析乳制品业的技术效率及其收敛趋势，寻找影响乳制品业技术效率的因素；同时结合产业组织理论分析乳制品业的市场结构、效率及绩效的关系，考察乳制品业的生产效率对产业绩效的影响，探究乳制品业发展过程中的质量及效益状况，为政策制订者、乳品企业的管理人员提供决策依据，从而促进中国乳制品业的健康发展。论文在回顾生产率理论及产业组织理论的基础上，以乳制品业为研究对象，以乳制品业的生产效率及绩效为研究起点，考察了1998～2005年间乳制品业全要素生产率(total factor productivity，TFP)(简称“生产率”)的变动状况，分析近年来乳制品业增长的源泉：生产效率的改善抑或技术进步，在此基础上判断中国乳制品业发展的质量。随后分析了畜牧业发展状况、乳制品消费支出比重、产业集聚、资本劳动比率、企业规模、广告密度等因素对中国乳制品业技术效率的影响。最后以产业组织理论为基础，考察乳制品业市场结构、行为及绩效的关系，并将效率因素纳入研究对象，验证市场力量假说及效率结构假说在中国乳制品市场的存在性，探究影响中国乳制品业绩效水平的深层次原因，并给出了本文的研究结论和政策含义。论文根据1998～2005年间的省际面板数据，采用非参数方法及其它计量经济方法，通过必要的实证分析及经验检验，得出以下几点基本结论：(1)对中国乳制品业生产率变动的测算表明，1998～2005年中国乳制品业全要素生产率以年均0.61％的速度增长，技术效率以年均0.08％的速度下降，而技术进步则以年均0.75％的速度上升，由于技术效率下降的速度不足以抵消技术进步的上升速度，因此使得中国乳制品业全要素生产率的增长为正值；同时分析结果还表明，乳制品业全要素生产率的增长与其资本形成呈负相关。(2)中国乳制品业生产率变动的地区差异显示，五大奶业产区及非奶业产区的全要素生产率均呈增长态势，其中技术进步主导着乳制品业全要素生产率的增长。五大奶业产区中具有市场优势的大城市郊区的生产率增长速度最快，年均增长1.14％，支撑着大城市郊区生产率增长的仍是技术进步占主导作用。(3)中国乳制品业技术效率的测算结果表明，中国乳制品业的技术效率呈缓慢上升态势，技术效率值从1998年的0.8995上升到2005年的0.9316，而技术效率的标准差则从1998年的0.0154上升到2005年的0.0258，显示出中国乳制品业技术效率的差距出现了扩大化趋势。进一步分析显示，奶业产区的乳制品业技术效率高于非奶业产区的技术效率，并且非奶业产区乳制品业之间的技术效率差异比奶业产区的更明显。论文分析了中国乳制品业在全国范围内、奶业产区及非奶业产区技术效率的σ-收敛性。σ-收敛检验表明全国、奶业产区及非奶业产区乳制品业技术效率的变动趋势基本一致。1998～2001年技术效率的标准差均呈发散态势；而2002～2005年表现出收敛态势。进一步分析显示，非奶业产区的技术效率内部差异程度高于奶业产区及全国平均水平，奶业产区乳制品业技术效率的差异程度最小，表明奶业产区乳制品业发展落后的地区通过学习、使用领先者所拥有的先进技术成功地实现了技术效率的追赶。(4)分别从内部和外部两个方面选取可能影响乳制品业技术效率的因素，研究表明，外部因素中只有交通运输业发展状况对中国乳制品业的技术效率产生显著的正效应，而集聚水平对技术效率产生负影响；内部因素中的乳制品业的资本劳动比率、平均规模、广告密度等对其技术效率均产生积极影响。此外，提高乳制品的技术装备水平、增加科技投入等将有助于提高技术效率。(5)论文通过测算中国乳制品业的销售利润率、资产报酬率、净资产收益率、成本费用利润率等指标来衡量乳制品业的绩效水平。总体来看，中国乳制品业经过近十年的快速增长，总产值已由1995年的78.35亿元增长到2005年的886.74亿元，10年间增长了10.32倍。乳制品业在规模扩张的同时也出现了诸多问题，许多企业重视发展速度，而不注重经济效益，因而造成产量增加，销售收入提高，而企业的盈利水平在降低；此外，乳制品的同质化严重，名牌产品在市场上并没有形成名牌的效果，有的甚至把自己混同于无名小牌，名牌产品卖着“地摊价格”，并没有给消费者树立高品质、高规格、高品位的产品形象。因此乳制品行业一定要尽快从速度型向效益型转变，高速度低效益将预示着企业的经营风险，稳步发展的前提是速度与效益的统一。最后通过建立回归模型分析了中国乳制品业的市场结构、效率与绩效的关系，对影响乳制品业绩效的市场力量假说和效率结构假说进行了验证。结果表明，市场力量假说在中国乳制品市场并不存在。尽管如此，技术效率的改善对乳制品业绩效的提高有积极作用，宏观数据分析显示，规模效率对乳制品业的绩效产生明显的负作用，乳制品市场部分满足效率结构假说的条件。采用微观的数据分析显示，乳制品市场存在效率结构假说。由于规模的扩张并未促进销售利润率和市场份额的增长，这也部分解释了现阶段乳制品企业的大肆扩张而绩效下降的事实。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dairy industry holds an important position in national economy. Each country attaches importance to the development of dairy industry. Developing countries especial Asia countries put dairy industry as an important measure for improving nutrition and diathesis. For example, Egypt sets dairy industry as primary policy in agricultural development stratagem; India develops "onrush action" in the whole country for developing dairy industry since 1970. China’s dairy industry come into being after liberated Since then, China develops dairy industry according to plan. Only 4.7 ten thousand tons dairy production is far from. meeting people’s demands. Dairy industry has continuance increase since 1978. But due to market rule, dairy industry fluctuates in 1990’s. Dairy products dropped 4.2 percent in 1996 and 2.8 percent in 1998 because of unreasonable dairy products structure and incommensurate market demands. After China’ joining WTO, dairy industry will be confronted with drastic competition.Dairy industry comes forth many problems in recent year, such as revivification milk, abortion milk, fresh milk sign. These problems bother China’s dairy industry. At the same time, the performance in dairy industry is very low. According to national statistics bureau, profit margin is 6.8 percent, 6.1 percent and 5.4 percent from 2000 to 2004. Profit margin is only 4.9 percent in the front ten dairy enterprises. So much low profit can impact on the development of dairy industry. Therefore, how to enhance dairy industry’s performance has became common attention issue for government, enterpriser and scholar. This paper makes the total factor productivity (abbreviation "productivity") to be the research object, investigating the change of total factor productivity and production efficiency with the development of dairy industry, analyzing technical efficiency and it’s convergence, finding out factors on technical efficiency. The paper also analyzes the relationship with market structure, conduct and performance, discussing production efficiency impact on the performance, researching into quality and benefit on the development of dairy industry. Therefore, the study will provide decision for policy maker, management. Consequently it will facilitate the development of dairy industry.Based on the productivity theory and industry organization theory, this paper makes the dairy industry’s production efficiency and performance to be the research beginning, reviewing the change of total factor productivity(abbreviation "productivity") in dairy industry, analyzing the headspring of dairy industry increase in recent years: efficiency improving or technical progress. Based on this, the paper makes an estimation on the development quality in dairy industry, analyzing some factors on dairy industry efficiency such an stock raising, dairy production consumption, industry accumulation, capital labor ratio, enterprise scale as well as advertisement density and so on. Thereafter, based on productivity convergence theory, the paper also studies technical efficiency convergence. In the end, based on industry organization theory, the paper analyzes the relationship in market structure, conduct and performance, validating whether exists market power hypothesis and efficiency hypothesis or not, researching into cause for influencing on performance of China’s dairy industry. In the end is policy and suggestions for the dairy industry development.According to the data set from 1998 to 2005, this paper adopts non-parameter method, drawing a conclusion through necessary demonstration analysis and experiential test.(1) The result of dairy industry’s total factor productivity shows: dairy industry’s total factor productivity increases by speed of 0.61 percent, technical efficiency declines by speed of 0.08 percent, technical progress has risen by 0.75 percent. Since the decline of technical efficiency can not counteract the rise of technical progress. As a result, the increase of dairy industry productivity is positive. The result also shows that the increase of dairy industry productivity takes on the negative correlation with capital form.(2)Dairy industry’ s total factor productivity exist region difference. Total factor productivity of dairy industry in five milk product region and the rest have increased from 1998 to 2005. Thereinto, technical progress is dominant. Big city suburb has increased by the speed of 1.14 percent. The speed is prestissimo in five product region. In the same way, the increase is dominant by technical progress.(3) Using the non-parameter method on technical efficiency in dairy industry, this study shows that technical efficiency increases from 0.8995 in 1998 to 0.9316 in 2005. And that the standard of technical efficiency has risen from 0.0154 in 1998 to 0.0258 in 2005. The result shows that difference of technical efficiency has enlarged. The technical efficiency in milk producing region is higher than the rest. Furthermore, the difference of technical efficiency in non-product region is more distinct.This paper examines the convergence of the whole country, milk producing region and the rest. The result of sigma- convergence indicates that the change trend in these regions is consistent. The standard of technical efficiency converges from 2002 to 2005. It has no absolute convergence tendency from 1998 to 2001. The paper also finds that difference degree in non-milk-producing region is larger than milk-producing region. It indicates that the precursor has achieved technical efficiency chase in milk-producing region. The reason for the convergence is the trade and investment, intercourse with various enterprises. In this way, technology and management experience will flow from developed regions to developing regions. Therefore, technical efficiency takes on convergence.(4) The paper also analyzes the effect on technical efficiency, the results show: in external factor s, transportation has positive on dairy industry’s technical efficiency, on the contrary, convergency is negative on it. In inner factors, capital labor ratio, scale, advertising density are all positive on dairy industry’s technical efficiency. Besides, improving technology furnishment, increasing technology input can help to improve technical efficiency.(5) The paper adopts sale profit ratio, capital reward ratio, net capital yield, cost profit ratio for estimating dairy industry’s performance. As a whole, dairy industry has rapid increase in the recent ten years. For example, total production value has increased from 78.35 to 886.74 a hundred million during the recent ten years. But in the same time, dairy industry comes forth many questions with the scale-up. Many enterprises attach importance to developmental speed, not economical benefit. Thus, dairy product is homogeneous seriously. Name brand products have not reached nameplate effects. And also it does not build up good quality, acceptance specification and fine character products. Thus dairy industry should change from speed to benefit. High speed and low benefits indicate risk. Development precondition is the unification of speed and benefit.In the end, the paper establishes regression model to analyze the relationship with market structure, efficiency and performance of dairy industry, validate market power hypothesis and efficiency structure hypothesis. The results indicate that dairy product market doesn’t exist market power hypothesis. In despite of this, improvement of technical efficiency will increase performance of dairy industry. The macro-data analysis shows that dairy product market fulfils efficiency structure hypothesis partly but the micro-data results exist it. Besides, scale spread does not advance performance and market share. That explains partly that dairy industry exist scale spread performance decline.更多还原