【作者】 杨波；

【导师】 刘海云；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,以信息技术、生物技术为代表的科学技术进步带动了高新技术产业的发展,高新技术产业已经成为推动国际贸易高速发展的主导力量,高新技术产品出口已经成为国际贸易新的增长点。目前新技术革命已经改变了国际分工的格局,赋予了国际贸易不同的内涵,由技术水平决定的国际分工和贸易比较优势的重要性日益增长。传统的国际贸易理论更多的是关注劳动要素和资本要素在国家间的比较优势,其中以李嘉图为代表的古典贸易理论认为劳动是唯一的生产要素,而赫克希尔—俄林为代表的古典贸易理论假定国家间技术水平是相同的,并在此基础上分析资本和劳动要素禀赋对国际贸易的影响。以克鲁格曼为代表的新贸易理论开始分析技术与贸易的相互动态关系,但是多数研究都集中在贸易对技术的影响,比如国际贸易过程中的技术外溢、技术扩散和干中学等。本文重点研究技术进步对国际贸易的影响,研究主要分为三个部分,第一部分研究出口国技术进步对国际贸易的影响;第二部分研究进口国技术进步演进为技术性贸易壁垒对国际贸易的影响;第三部分讨论技术进步促进贸易发展的战略性贸易政策,并对中国的科技兴贸战略进行实证研究。本文首先从经济学理论角度分析出口国技术进步促进国际贸易增长的原因,然后建立包含资本、劳动和技术的三要素出口增长模型,通过建立出口增长率与技术进步率之间的函数,从理论上证明技术进步对出口增长具有直接的促进作用。其次,对中国技术进步与出口增长之间的关系用实证的方法进行研究,结果证明中国的技术进步与出口增长之间具有长期的均衡关系(协整关系),而且技术进步是出口增长的格兰杰成因。再次,文章用面板数据的方法将中国与美国、德国、法国、英国、日本、加拿大这六个贸易大国进行了比较分析,发现中国的技术进步虽然对出口增长有一定的促进作用,但是与发达国家相比作用明显较小。中国的对外贸易以加工贸易为主,自主创新能力不足,科技成果转化率较低等因素,是中国技术进步对出口增长的影响力相对较弱的原因。实证结果表明,各个省市技术进步对出口增长的促进作用也存在较大差异,在人力资源相对丰富,工业基础相对雄厚,经济外向性相对更强的地区,技术进步对出口增长的促进作用相对更为明显,而在经济不发达和出口能力较弱的省份,通过技术进步促进出口增长的作用相对较弱。文章结合WTO的相关规定对技术性贸易壁垒的成因和特征进行了分析,指出进口国技术进步和政府干预是技术性贸易壁垒形成的主要因素。虽然技术性贸易壁垒对于保护人类身体健康、保护环境和公共安全、提高国际贸易的整体水平等方面有一定的积极作用,但是其客观上提高了国际贸易的成本,对出口国产生了类似于关税效应的抑制作用,因此,进口国技术进步演进为技术性贸易壁垒会成为国际贸易增长的不利因素。文章用博弈论的方法对国家间技术性贸易壁垒的形成进行了分析,指出具备技术和贸易优势的发达国家,更倾向于主动采取设置技术性贸易壁垒的战略并从中获得利益,而发展中国家却只能被迫采取亦步亦趋的跟从策略。文章进一步对美国、欧盟等国家和地区技术性贸易壁垒的特点及趋势进行分析,总结了技术性贸易壁垒对国际贸易的不利影响,并重点分析了发达国家技术性贸易壁垒对中国出口的不利影响,最后提出中国依托技术进步跨越国外技术性贸易壁垒的政策建议。文章对发达国家通过技术进步促进贸易发展的战略性贸易政策进行了回顾,并结合经济学理论进行了分析,总结了发达国家在实施过程中的经验和教训。本文指出战略性贸易政策可以促进高新技术产业的发展,但是也容易导致寻租行为的发生以及资源配置的扭曲。中国作为一个发展中国家,国内市场的资源配置存在一定程度的市场失灵,因此应适当进行政府干预,审慎使用战略性贸易政策,通过研发补贴和有效保护的方式,积极通过技术进步促进国际贸易的发展。另外,本文对中国的战略性贸易政策——科技兴贸战略进行了实证分析,结果证明科技兴贸战略促进了我国高新技术产品出口,带动了我国出口商品结构调整以及出口增长速度大幅提高,为国民经济和对外贸易的发展做出了积极贡献。但是我国科技兴贸战略依然存在一些问题,如出口产品的技术含量不高、出口高速增长与低效益并存等等问题。最后,文章指出实施科技兴贸战略是中国由贸易大国向贸易强国跨越的必由之路,并提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the hi-tech industry has become the pioneer of the international trade because of the tremendous development of technology in every aspect of human life, such as communication and biology. As a result, hi-tech production export has increased very quickly all over the world, which has changed pattern of international trade and comparative advantages among the countries.The traditional trade theories usually focused on the comparative advantage in the production. For example, the Comparative Advantage Theory of David Ricardo considered the labor as the only factor in the international trade. So each country specializes in the production of the goods and the export of them in which it has comparative advantages. Also, the H-O theory considered that there are two factors of production, labor and capital between the two nations. Meanwhile, it assumes that all nations use the same technology in production and the relatively labor-rich nation exports the relatively labor-intensive commodity and imports the relatively capital-intensive commodity. But the previous trade-theory literature gave no explicit reasons for the difference in comparative costs. New theories of international trade pioneered by Krugman and other economists focus on the nature of technological differences among countries, in order to make the model consistent with observed patterns of trade. But many of researches focused on technology diffusion, spillovers and learning-by-doing in the trade. The author will study how technology affects the international trade. The paper is divided into three parts, the first part deals with the impact on trade brought about by the technological development of the export country, and the second part focuses on the impact on trade brought about by the technological development of the import country, and the last part of the article discusses strategic trade policies home and abroad. At first the article analyses the cause of technology promoting trade from the angle of economics and establishes a function of increasing rate of export and improving rate of technology through constructing the export model, through which the author draws a conclusion that technology progress can promote the exports. And then, an empirical study of technology and trade proves that there is a cointegration between China’s technology progress and export, and technology progress is also the reason of the increase of export. Moreover, the empirical study of panel data concludes that the impact of Chinese technological progress on exports is still limited compared with those developed countries, such as America, Japan, France, Germany, and so on. This limited impact is mainly due to the high proportion of the processing trade and relatively low capacity to turn the technological innovation into the production. Also, there are substantial differences among the provinces in China. In fact, the provinces with better tradition of the export and innovation are more capable to increase the export by technology, and vice versa.The article analyses the reason and character of technical barriers to trade through the research on WTO regulations, and concludes that technological difference and progress is an important factor that causes technical barriers to trade (TBT). The TBT can actually protect people’health, environment and public safety, but they becomes the barriers in its real sense because it increases the cost of trade like the tariff. Also, the article analyses the TBT in game theory, and concludes that the developed countries with technological advantage incline to set up TBT initiatively for their own interests, and the developing countries have to adapt to TBT. In addition, the article analyses the character and trend of TBT in America and European Union. TBT’s negative impact on the international trade, especially on China’s export is also studied in the article. So the suggestion to increasing China’s exports is given that China should make tremendous technology progress to overcome TBT.The last but not the least, the article analyses strategic trade policies in the developed countries and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the strategic trade policies which promote exports by means of technology. The conclusion can be drawn that the strategic trade policies can increase the export, especially the export of hi-tech products, but they may decrease the market efficiency, such as the distortion of the allocation of the resources. China, a developing country with a huge amount of international trade, should have some strategic trade policies to increase the export by technology; for example, R&D subsidy and effective protection. At last, the article empirically studies the Chinese strategic trade policy, Stratagem of Trade Promoted by Science & Technology, and draws the conclusion that it increases the export especially of hi-tech products and promotes the development of economy and trade. But there are some problems still exist; for example, the technical content of exports is not high comparatively. Thus, the experience and lessons can be acquired, and the suggestion to policies of China’s international trade is put forward in the article. So we can conclude that China’s strategic policy which promotes trade by technology is the essential way to make China a powerful country in trade.更多还原