【作者】 郭敏；

【导师】 干胜道；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 企业管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 邓小平同志曾经指出“金融是现代经济的核心。金融搞好了，一着棋活，全盘皆活”。而银行业又是现代金融的核心之所在。银行体系的安全直接关系到一国的经济、金融的安全，甚至政治、国家的安全。商业银行作为银行业体系的核心主体，在我国经济和社会发展中起着举足轻重的作用，它直接关系到整个金融体系、经济体系和国民经济命脉的安全。因为一个国家的经济金融危机首先将反映在银行业，而银行业的风险反过来又将导致经济及金融危机的产生，并加剧危机的发展力度。著名经济学家吴敬琏认为：“我国现在的金融体系相当脆弱，而最脆弱的部分又是银行体系，高额的不良信贷资产已成为社会稳定的极大隐患。”特别是当今世界经济、金融全球化、一体化形势的加强，更是加大了我国商业银行信贷资产安全性控制的难度。近年来，从墨西哥金融危机到巴林银行的破产，从阿尔巴尼亚的金融风潮到亚洲金融危机，动荡不安的国际金融领域险境重重，使各国经济遭受严重打击，金融体系遭到严重破坏。让世界各国充分认识到一个健康的银行体系对于一个国家经济增长和金融安全的重要意义。另外，在我国商业银行目前经营模式下，贷款依然是我国商业银行的主要经营业务，利润也主要来源于存贷款之间的利差，信贷资产的风险也是商业银行面临的最大和最重要的风险。我国银行业按照加入WTO的承诺将从2007年1月1日全面对外开放，这标志着中外资银行将处于同一竞争平台，国际金融危机向我国传递的机制也已形成，这同时也对我国商业银行信贷资产安全性控制提出了更高的要求。因此，可以说商业银行信贷资产的安全已经直接关系到一个国家经济、金融体系的安全与稳定。特别是在经济、金融一体化、全球化的大环境下，中国银行业的生存与经营环境日趋激烈化和复杂化，银行信贷资产安全控制的难度也日趋加大。因此，深入研究影响我国商业银行信贷资产安全的因素及其生成机理，寻找适合中国国情的控制方法与对策，就成为当前金融研究领域的十分迫切和重要研究课题。从我国实际情况来看，由于长期处于计划经济体制下，商业银行风险意识普遍较为淡薄，在很长的一段时间里忽视了对信贷资产安全性的管理和研究，资产安全控制手段较为落后，信贷资产安全性管理比较粗放。近年来，随着社会主义市场经济的建立和发展，加强银行信贷资产安全性管理的意识有所增强。但是由于经济体制转轨、金融市场发育不健全、风险管控能力较低、风险控制手段较落后及法律法规不完善等因素，我国商业银行信贷资产安全性状况依然十分严峻，与国际先进银行差距较大。如银行不良贷款余额、占比仍然居高不下，2002年、2003年、2004年、2005年全国主要银行机构不良贷款比例分别为23％、17．8％、14．1％、10．2％(按照五级分类口径)，依然远高于国际上不良贷款率的最高临界值---10％。另外，由于不良信贷资产较多，利息回收困难，导致部分商业银行经营效益较差，亏损较为严重，再加上资本金严重不足，与《巴塞尔协议》规定的8％的最低标准还存在很大的差距，盈利能力、抗损失承受能力都较低下等等，这些都已严重影响到我国商业银行的稳健运营能力和信贷资产的安全性。特别是最近几年来，陆续爆出的“蓝田股份”、“托普系”、“德隆系”、“普马系”、“周正毅”、“江苏铁本”等一系列事件，均显示出我国商业银行在信贷资产安全性管理与控制方面还存在许多漏洞与不足，已严重危及到商业银行信贷资产的安全性，造成银行信贷资产的巨额损失。本文在分析和评述国内外银行信贷资产安全性相关理论的基础上，对银行信贷资产安全性与流动性、盈利性之间的关系、信贷资产安全性的概念、分类进行了界定和分析，在对影响商业银行信贷资产安全性共性因素和我国信贷资产安全性现状进行深入剖析的基础上，紧密结合中国银行业的实际，结合信息经济学、行为金融学的有关理论从产权制度、公司治理结构、融资行为、投资行为、内部控制等方面深入分析了借款企业行为、商业银行行为、政府行为及社会信用环境对信贷资产安全性的影响机理，特别是重点分析了信息不对称条件下商业银行信贷资产安全性生成机理，较系统、全面地论述了影响我国商业银行信贷资产安全性的特殊因素，并运用logistic等统计方法进行信贷资产安全性判别进行了实证研究，构建了我国商业银行信贷资产安全性判别模型，最后在此基础上提出了不断健全完善公司治理结构，树立市场化的新型银企关系；完善商业银行内部控制制度，强化内控执行机制；优化企业融资模式，降低企业对商业银行信贷资金的过度依赖；有效缓解商业银行信贷经营活动中面临的信息不对称程度等加强商业银行信贷资产安全性管理和控制的措施与建议。这为更好地判别与控制我国商业银行信贷资产安全性提供了新的工具与方法，对于商业银行提高信贷资产安全性防范和控制水平，促进我国银行业及金融体系的稳健运行具有重要的现实意义。同时这也有利于丰富金融管理研究的理论成果，促进商业银行学的丰富和发展，进一步充实和完善资产安全控制的相关理论研究。本文的研究包括导论共分八章。第一章为导论。第二章为商业银行信贷资产安全性的基础理论研究。第三章为影响商业银行信贷资产安全性的共性因素分析。第四章为我国商业银行信贷资产安全性管理的历史变迁及现状分析。第五章为影响我国商业银行信贷资产安全性的特殊因素分析。第六章为信息不对称与商业银行信贷资产安全性分析。第七章为我国商业银行信贷资产安全性判别与预警模型的构建与实证研究。第八章为加强我国商业银行信贷资产安全性管理和控制的对策研究。本文主要创新点：1．本文对安全性与流动性和盈利性之间的关系、商业银行信贷资产安全性的概念、分类进行了较深入的分析和研究，提出了银行信贷资产安全性是指信贷资产本和息都安全的“双重安全观”。这与工商企业资产安全仅指本金的“单一安全观”有着显著的差异。提出商业银行信贷资产安全性是指在商业银行的信贷交易活动中，信贷资产能够按照原持有目的保持正常运转，债务人(借款者)能够按照信贷合同按时足额地归还商业银行的贷款本息，债权人(贷款商业银行)从事先约定好的信贷契约交易中得到的权益(预期现金流量)价值不发生减损的状况，信贷资产核心价值能够不断实现保值、增值的过程。2．本文认为在我国目前转轨经济体制下，商业银行信贷经营活动中面临的企业、商业银行、政府、社会中介机构等市场主体的行为对信贷资产安全性有着十分重要的影响，尤其是在信息不对称条件下，企业、商业银行、政府、社会中介机构等市场主体行为的异化更是危及商业银行信贷资产安全性的重要因素。本文在对影响银行信贷资产安全性共性因素分析的基础上，结合信息不对称与行为金融学的相关理论对信贷市场相关利益主体的行为进行了系统的分析，从企业行为、商业银行行为、政府行为、社会信用环境、信息不对称等方面对商业银行信贷资产安全性的生成机理进行了较为系统、全面的阐述与分析。3．本文重点分析了信息不对称对银行信贷资产安全性的影响机理，总结了商业银行信贷活动中面临的六种信息不对称形式，进一步丰富和扩大了信息不对称与银行信贷资产安全性的研究内容，一定程度上有利于丰富信息不对称条件下资产安全性控制的相关理论。4．本文运用logistic回归分析方法对银行信贷资产安全性判别进行实证研究，构建了商业银行信贷资产安全性判别模型。这有利于银行在贷前加强对借款企业的有效筛选，提高信贷决策的准确性，提高银行防范和控制信贷资产安全性的能力和水平。随着加入WTO之后，中国银行业全面开放步伐的加快，国际经济、金融一体化、全球化进程的加快，我国商业银行面临的市场竞争强度的加大，积极寻找新形势下适合中国国情的商业银行信贷资产安全性控制方法和手段已经成为当前我国金融研究领域比较迫切的研究课题之一。因此，为更好地适应国际银行业的发展趋势，提高我国银行业的国际竞争能力，维护银行的稳健运行，我国商业银行应积极加强产权制度改革，进一步健全公司治理结构，不断优化内部控制流程，加强公开信息披露，建立有效的市场约束，同时不断规范企业、政府、社会中介机构、监管部门等外部有关行为主体的行为，并积极营造良好的社会信用环境，提高银行监管的有效性，不断降低银行不良贷款余额和比率，努力提高银行信贷资产安全性的防范和控制能力，大力增强我国商业银行综合竞争实力，促进中国银行业持续、健康、稳健的运行，这是本文的宗旨所在。更多还原

【Abstract】 Quoted from Deng xiaoping "The finance, the fundamental for all other things, is crucial for economic development."On the other hand, it is also the core of the high-risky banking industry. It is directly related to national economic, financial security, and even national securities. Due to the fact that the financial crisis will first be reflected in banking industry and failure of the banking operations will also trigger the crisis, Commercial banks, the main core of the banking industry, play an important role in economic and social developments. As pointed out the famous economist Wu jinlian: Among the weakness of our nation’s financial infrastructure, the weakest part is the banking system, because of the large proportion of the non-performing credit assets. The task to commercial banks’ credit assets risk management has become more and more difficult as the globalization of the international economic and finance. Recently, national economic and financial infrastructures have been devastated by the international financial situation, such as financial crisis in Mexico, Asia, and Albania as well as the Bankruptcy of Bnp_paridase Bank. These crises alerted the world to realize the importance of a healthy commercial banking system to economic development and financial securities. On the other hand, the current operation mode of commercial banks is still supported by the profits from the difference between the cost of taking deposits and the benefits from lending the loans. Therefore, the main financial risks of the commercial banks are equivalent to the risks of credit assets. By Jan 1st, 2007, the banking market would be fully opened to international competition to which the commercial banks are exposed. As a result, the inflow of the international financial crisis calls for even higher requirement for commercial banks credit assets risk management. Thus, it is imperative to find a tactical control method, which fits for our national situation, for credit risks by analyzing the cause and source of them.On the other hand, due to the fact that the research and supervision of the credit assets security have been ignored for a long period of time, which is the product of the planed-economic, the security measures are most out-of-dated. With the development of the market economic, although there were some improvements for the risk management, they are , however, still not well-developed in the methods and policies due to some factors such as economic transformation, under-developed financial market, incapability of efficient risk management and control, and the incomprehensiveness of the legislation. Phenomenon includes ill-proportional of non-performing credit assets and inefficient of collection policy. According to the 5-rank classification policy, the ratio of non-performing credit assets is 23%, 17.8%, 14.1%, and 10.2% for 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively. The unavoidable consequences of the latter phenomenon are severe operation losses and the insufficient capital, which is far less than the 8%, the standard set by Basel n. All of those indicated the insufficiency and incapability of the credit risk assets management and supervision, which, in turn, jeopardizes the commercial banks’ credit assets and induces huge volume of non-performing assets, Such as "Lantian Co.,ltd", "Tuopu group", "Delong group", "Puma group" event,and so on.The purpose of this work, based on the analysis and evaluation of theory of the international banking assets security, is to define and classify the security of the banking assets by assessing cause and current status of the commercial banks’ credit risks. Cross-section studies such as current status of China’s banking industry, info-economics, financial behavior, corporate ownership, corporate control system, financing, and internal control have been used to investigate the effects of behaviors of the corporate financing, commercial banks, government, as well as the social credit environment on credit assets, especially the interaction between asymmetric information and credit assets. Aided by statistics software SAS and statistical methods including Logistic regression, principle component analysis, factor analysis, and multivariate analysis, empirical research has been fulfilled to model the commercial credit risk classification system, base on which conclusion has been reached about the ways to improve the risk management. The conclusion established some ways to improve the credit risk management such as optimize the national-owned enterprises and commercial banks operation structure; establish new relationship between banks and corporations; optimize bank’s internal control system; balancing corporate financing ways, eliminate corporate over-dependency on bank’s credit assets, and remove information asymmetric contributed by credit sales. All the methods provide better ways to indentify and control the credit risk, which is stabilize the banking industry and financial market. Academically speaking, this study also could contribute the financial management theory and the commercial banking.There are totally 8 chapters in this dissertation. Chapter one is the introduction. Chapter two is the definition, classification of the international and national current status the commercial credit assets security. Chapter 3 is the analysis the cause of commercial credit assets security. Chapter 4 is the analysis of the national commercial credit assets security management and current situation. Chapter 5 is the forming mechanism of commercial credit assets security. Chapter 6 is commercial credit assets security and information asymmetric. Chapter 7 provides an empirical statistical model. Chapter 8 is the evaluation commercial credit assets security policies.Conclusions include:1. The fundamental difference between the capital security and duel-security of the capital and the interest, the latter of which is the main idea of the commercial credit assets security.2. Chinese-special, as well as the common risk sources, has effects on credit assets security of banking industry. Under the transformation of the economic infra-structure, commercial credit operation is effected by behaviors of corporates, commercial banks, government, social agencies. Due to the information asymmetric, the behaviors are even more important in analyzing of credit assets security.3. Logistic regression analysis, principle component analysis, factor analysis, and multivariate statistics have been used in paper to build a commercial banks’ credit assets classification model. The model is very useful in filtering the financing corporate, and therefore, improving the lending decision. As a result, the ability to avoid and mange credit risks is enhanced.Based on the sources of the credit risks, this study provides effective and efficient methods to increase the ability to control and manage them. Special efforts have been concentrated on the problem of information asymmetric which is encountered by the daily business operation, methods to deal with which include the establishment of the corporate, as well as personal, information system in a national scope, institution of information department serving as a information-spy, information exchanging platform among government supervisory agencies, restructuring of commercial banks, optimization of information sharing channels, techniques upgrading, enhancement of information identification ability, and reduction of information asymmetric situation.With the process of opening of financial markets after rejoin the WTO and globalization of international economic and financial market, Chinese commercial banks encounter competition with increasing magnitude. As a result, it is crucial for financial academic society and the banking industry to find methods to manage and control the commercial banks’ credit risk which is suitable for China’s special interests. Therefore, to follow the international banking development trends, commercial banks should definitely fulfill the reformation of ownership, restructure corporate, constantly optimize internal control system, enhance information sharing, and establish solid relationship between corporate, government, social agencies, supervision department, and all other external entities in a way to improve credit record system, banking supervision, ability to credit risk management such that favorite China’s commercial bank’s competition situation could be reached. This was what my study is aimed at.更多还原