【作者】 徐波；

【导师】 尤建新；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 世界范围内的防灾减灾形势严峻，灾害对于人类和经济、社会发展的影响不断加剧，已成为可持续发展的隐患。我国城市遭受各种灾害威胁的形势也十分严峻，城市灾害放大效应明显，灾害种类多、连锁性强、易扩散、危害面广、社会影响大。近些年来我国在防灾减灾研究方面有了长足的进展，但与发达国家相比存在一定的差距。本文从宏观的层面对城市防灾减灾规划进行了理论探讨。围绕城市防灾减灾规划的研究背景、城市防灾减灾规划的基本理念及框架、城市空间层次上的防灾减灾规划、城市防灾减灾风险管理、易损性评价、应急管理等几个方面展开研究。城市防灾减灾涉及多部门、多灾种，是一项复杂的社会系统工程。城市防灾规划作为防灾建设的重要组成部分，需要始终贯穿综合防灾减灾理念，落实多灾种、多风险、多手段、多目标、多评估的防灾减灾规划的理念。城市综合防灾规划体系可以分为“宏观”、“中观”和“微观”三个层次。城市灾害大体可以分为如下几类：自然(人为)灾害，如：地震、海啸、风暴潮、台风、龙卷风、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀、泥石流、水灾、地面沉降和塌陷、滑坡、火灾等；建设施工安全和灾害，如：房屋局部和部分倒塌、人员死伤、地下施工导致建筑物和环境灾害、基坑和地铁施工事故；市政道路管网运行安全：如管道破裂、管道爆炸、煤气和天然气泄漏；软损失，由城市灾害造成的非物质形态的损失，如：心理损伤、社会秩序和安全的破坏、正常生产生活秩序混乱。随着我国经济快速发展，城市化程度的提高，城市建设在单位土地上的聚集程度比以往任何时候都高，如果发生灾害将产生明显放大效应。合理的城市空间布局将有利于改善城市生态环境，减少灾害的发生以及控制灾害的扩散，减少社会灾害隐患。城市虚体空间是灾害发生时的避难通道和避难地，还起到保护环境、降低灾害扩散的作用，需要重视对城市虚体的规划。城市防灾空间规划要与城市现状和长远规划相结合，因地制宜、平灾结合、均衡布局和就近布置以达到快速畅通。根据我国行政机构特点，将城市防灾避难空间按城市级、区级、社区级分为三个等级。城市防灾空间必须能满足整个城市人口的避难需要，覆盖到所有居民区。城市防灾空间布点优化模型首先确定能覆盖全部需求所需的最少防灾空间的数量，再根据人员疏散所能达到的最远距离，按最大覆盖准则，确定给定数量的防灾空间的位置。顺畅的道路网系统是保证发生灾害时安全疏散的必备条件，通过人员疏散道路的有效宽度的动态方程，可以实现疏散道路宽度的优化。城市防灾减灾规划必须建立在城市灾害风险研究基础上，只有确切了解城市所面临的灾害类型及其风险大小，才能有针对性地进行规划。城市灾害风险管理是一个动态过程，灾害风险管理的实施过程是不断循环和完善的过程。主要分为：风险鉴别、风险分析、风险评估和风险处理。在我国快速城市化进程中，由于不断扩张和功能重组，城市出现“摊大饼”式的蔓延，致使城市内部发展不平衡。通过对城市内部各局部区域易损度研究，找出城市内部的薄弱部位，便于规划中重点加强防范或改造，提高城市的承灾能力，减轻灾害损失。根据危机的生命周期，将应急管理具体分为预防、准备、响应、恢复四个阶段。应急管理应该是一个持续的全过程的管理，它的研究对象具有复杂性、多样性，同时涉及到多方面的利益，是一个复杂的社会巨系统，需要政府建立一套完整的系统。灾害应急管理为城市防灾减灾的重要内容。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasingly greater impact exerted by disasters on human being,economic and social development, disasters have become the obstacle againstsustainable development, so the world is experiencing a severe situation in preventingand reducing disasters. Chinese cities are also confronted with severe endangermentof disasters. Urban disasters are characterized with obvious amplification effect,diverse disaster types, strong chain effect, easy proliferation, wide damage andtremendous impact on society. In recent years, although China has made greatprogress in research on disaster prevention and reduction, compared with relatedachievements made by developed countries, there is still a gigantic gap for us tobridge.In this paper, theoretical exploration was conducted on urban disaster preventionand reduction planning from a microscopical angle. The following aspects have beenstudied: the research background, basics and framework of urban disaster preventionand reduction planning, urban disaster prevention and reduction planning in urbanspace, risk management in urban disaster prevention and reduction planning,vulnerability assessment and emergency management.Urban disaster prevention and reduction involves more than one department anddisaster types and is a complicated social systematic project. As an important part ofdisaster construction, urban disaster prevention planning should always be guided bythe principle of comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction, put into practice theprinciple of urban disaster prevention and reduction planning characterized withvarious types of disasters, various risks, multiple measures and assessment. Theplanning system of comprehensive urban disaster prevention can be presented fromthree levels, namely, the macro-level, middle-level and micro-level.Urban disasters can be categorized into the following types: natural (man-made)disasters like earthquake, tsunami, storm, typhoon, tornado, seawater intrusion,coastal erosion, debris flow, flood, land subsidence, land slide, fire and others; construction safety and disasters like local or partial collapse of buildings, injuriesand death, construction and environment disaster caused by underground construction,foundation pit and subway construction accidents; municipal road and pipe networksafe operation like pipe crack, pipe explosion, leakage of coal gas and natural gas;soft loss, that is, non-material loss caused by urban disasters like mental injury,destroy of social order and safety and disorder of normal working and livingactivities.With the rapid development of Chinese economy and improvement ofurbanization, the density of urban construction on each land unit is higher than everbefore. In this case, if disasters take place, they will result in obvious amplificationeffect. Therefore, reasonable arrangement of urban space will benefit theimprovement of ecological environment of cities, reducing disasters, controlling theirspread and lessening disaster risks. Since urban virtual space constitutes the refugepassage and shelter and plays a role in protecting environment and reducing thespread of disasters, great importance shall be attached to the planning of urban virtualspace.The planning of urban disaster prevention space shall be combined with thepresent and future planning of cities. Localized planning, incorporated normal anddisaster situation, balanced layout and proximate placement which enabletransportation in the urban space fast and smooth also should be considered in spaceplanning. In accordance with the characteristics of administrative departments of ourcountry, urban disaster prevention refuge space can be classified into three levels:municipal level, regional level and communal level. The optimization model of urbandisaster prevention layout can firstly confirm the least disaster prevention space thatcan cover all demands. Then the given disaster prevention space is located accordingto the furthest distance that evacuation of people can reach and the principle of thelargest cover. Smooth road network system is the essential condition for safeevacuation in case of disasters. The width of evacuation road can be optimized by thedynamical equation of effective width of evacuation road.The planning of urban disaster prevention and reduction shall be based onresearch on urban disaster risks. Pointed planning can not be implemented unless the clear interpretation of disaster types and risks cities are confronted with is achieved.Urban disaster risk management is a dynamic process and its implementation needscontinuous circulation and improvement. Urban disaster risk management mainlyincluded: risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment and risk handling.In the course of the rapid urbanization of China, due to continuous expansionand function recombination, cities expand like "spreading out a big pie", resulting inunbalanced development within cities. Weak parts can be found out within cities byconducting research on vulnerability of some areas of the city to facilitate theprotection and improvement in the planning and improve the city’s ability to fightagainst disaster and reduce loss caused by disasters.According to life cycle of crisis, emergency management can be specificallydivided into four stages, namely, they are prevention, preparation, reaction andrecovery. Emergency management shall be a continuous process and its study objectsare characterized with complexity and diversity and involve interests of more thanone party. And it is a complicated and gigantic social system. A complete set ofsystem shall be built up by the government. Emergency management of disastersconstitutes an important part of urban disaster prevention and reduction.更多还原