【作者】 王仲瑀；

【导师】 黄清；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类社会得以存在和发展的基础，但是能源的过度开采不仅带来了能源可利用储量的不断减少，而且造成生态环境的严重污染。改革开放后的20多年里，我国在能源领域取得了巨大的成就，但是其中也存在许多问题，能源可持续发展开发利用状况越来越严峻，如果措施不当就会出大问题。建设一个资源消耗低、环境污染少、经济效益好的国民经济体系和资源节约型社会，是我国今后发展的根本目标，也是解决能源矛盾的根本途径。黑龙江省能源资源禀赋比较好，但在重开发、轻保护、轻勘查的情况下，能源资源状况并不乐观，开展节能工作，提高能源的开发和利用效率是当务之急。目前黑龙江省已经开始实施一系列措施以减轻能源瓶颈给该省未来发展带来的冲击，但是对于黑龙江这个能源大省来说，可持续发展战略将是今后能源工作的重中之重；黑龙江省的能源可持续发展会对我国能源安全产生直接的影响，如何合理实现黑龙江省能源的可持续发展己成为一个非常现实的问题。本文通过结构化的分析方法，首先对黑龙江省能源可持续发展现状进行分析，然后针对黑龙江能源开发、利用以及能源节约和综合利用状况展开讨论，以分析黑龙江能源可持续发展中存在的问题，最后对该省的能源可持续发展提出对策建议。为了能更好的说明黑龙江省今后可能出现的能源可持续性问题，本文采用定量分析的方法，借助3E模型和情景分析法对黑龙江省的能源供需状况进行了分析。通过分析看到，在今后很长一段时间内黑龙江省仍将是全国重要的能源工业基地，黑龙江省煤炭和石油等重要能源仍旧可以维持一段时间的开发和利用，但是这些常规能源不仅储量有限，而且会带来大量的环境污染，开展能源的节约降耗工作十分必要；同时应该重视新能源与可再生能源在推进产业化进程中的重要作用，建立以市场为基础的经济激励机制，大力发展以小水电、风能、生物质能、太阳能、地热能等为主的新能源与可再生能源资源产业，从根本上解决能源短缺和环境污染等影响经济社会可持续发展的问题。为了能够在该省新能源开发中进行合理的决策并考虑大量复杂的影响因素，本文利用模糊层次分析法把新能源开发过程中各种因素划分成相互联系的有序层次并使之条理化，并通过计算综合层度值进行层次单排序和总排序，从而为黑龙江省新能源开发决策提供支持和借鉴作用。基于循环经济原则、资源节约型和环境友好型原则、生态保护优先保障能源供给原则、能源开发利用技术先进性原则、经济效益和社会效益兼顾原则等五个原则，在分析了构建黑龙江省能源可持续发展模式必要性的基础上，通过对基于循环经济的能源可持续发展模式、基于生态工业园区的能源可持续发展模式、基于技术创新的能源可持续发展模式以及基于能源生态化的能源可持续发展模式的分析，本文提出了“HET”能源可持续发展模式，指出黑龙江省能源发展应该坚持以人为本，以生态化为牵引力，以科技化为推动力。最后本文还提出黑龙江省能源可持续发展的对策建议，提出改善能源供应结构、完善能源安全储备制度、推动能源价格市场化、制定环境保护对策以及实施能源资产化管理、加强能源的调查评价、加强能源进口多元化战略实施等措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is the basis on which human society maintains and develops. However, over development of energy resources not only brings with reduction of available energy reserves, but also causes serious environmental pollution. During the past 20 years after our county reformed and opened up, we made much progress in energy field. Meanwhile there were a lot of problems on energy development and usage. Energy sustainable development was more and more important and more serious problems would come out if there were no rational measures. It will be the ultimate task and means of Chinese future development to construct a kind of national economics system and society with less energy consumption, less environmental pollution, better economical benefit.Although Heilongjiang is rich in energy resource gift, the situation isn’t as optimistically as that most people thought because of less protection and perambulation, including the great demand of future economical society development. At present Heilongjiang has carried out a series of measures to soften the impact of bottleneck restrictions on energy resources on future economical development. But for the province with rich energy, sustainable development strategy will be the most important thing in energy production. Sustainable development of Heilongjiang has been directly affecting national energy safety. It will be a realistic problem how to arrange sustainable development on Heilongjiang energy. In this paper structural analysis method will be used. First of all we discussed current status of sustainable development on Heilongjiang energy. Then we analyzed energy exploitation, use and saving situation in Heilongjiang. Finally we analyze the problems in sustainable development of Heilongjiang energy to plan for its more rational energy development.We use 3E Model and Senario Analysis Method to judge the balance status between energy supply and demand in Heilongjiang. By thorough analysis we see Heilongjiang will be still the important energy base in a long time. The important energy like coal and petroleum can be exploited and used for more years. But these primary energy resources will be less and less and more serious environmental pollution will turn out. It seems very necessary to save these energy resources. Meanwhile Heilongjiang should think a lot of the important function new and renewable energy of in industrializing process and construct economical motivation system based on market, develop the new energy and renewable energy industry including Biomass energy, water electricity, wind energy, solar energy and terrestrial heat energy to solve the social sustainable development problems like energy shortage and environmental pollution. To make rational decisions and consider various complicated factors, we used Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to decide exploiting order among the new energy. Based on five principles including recycling economy, resource saving and environmental friendly, ecology protection first, advanced technology in energy supply and due Consideration to economic and social benefit,"HET"energy sustainable development mode is proposed in this article, after energy sustainable development modes of recycling economy, ecological industrial park district, technology innovation and energy ecologizing were analyzed."HET"mode suggests that human beings are basic, ecology is pull and technology is impetus. Based on analysis on general status of energy sustainable development in Heilongjiang, suggestions and countermeasures are made, including improving energy supply structure and rule of energy security reserving, forming market-oriented energy price, strengthening management and survey and evaluation in energy exploitation, establishing environment protection countermeasures, implementing strategy of importing energy from abroad and so on.更多还原