【作者】 胡俊波；

【导师】 李萍；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 观察转型期农村劳动力的转移过程,我们发现存在着这样一种多元选择的现象:有的农民彻底离开土地,进入城市定居、市民化了;有的农民可能长达数年在外打工,但最终还是回到了土地上;有的农民选择就近打工,并且兼营农业;有的农民从来就没有离开过土地。为什么中国农村劳动力转移会表现出这样几种方式?要回答这个问题,需要我们进一步探究——是什么原因导致他们不同的个体做出了截然不同的选择呢?如果能够回答第二个问题,我们不仅可以对目前中国农村劳动力转移过程中表现出来的四种不同方式加以解释,还可以找到影响农村劳动力转移的主要障碍,通过改革促使农村劳动力进一步转移,以缩小城乡收入差距。这就是本文研究的初衷。本文通过研究认为,处于社会转型期的中国农村劳动力转移之所以会出现这四种方式,主要有如下两方面原因:1、个体因素。在一个既定的制度环境里,对于农村劳动力个体而言,他外出打工会面临很强的不确定性——可能找到工作,也可能找不到工作。产生这种不确定性的原因在于劳动者的个人禀赋特征不同,使得不同的劳动者面临同样工资水平的工作时有着不同的就业概率。这种就业的不确定性,必然会使得他们的行为方式表现出各种不同的模式。2、系统性因素。农村劳动力转移行为的差异并不仅仅受个体因素的影响,还要受到整个经济体系的系统性因素的影响,包括制度环境、经济发展速度等,在转型期的中国,制度因素的影响尤为显著。由于历史的原因,国家对城市和乡村劳动力长期实行着两套根本不同的制度,导致中国经济呈现出一种典型的二元经济结构,城乡割裂、城乡之间存在着巨大的差异。1978年实行的改革开放政策,推动中国的政治、经济、社会生活等各方面发生着巨大2的变化,中国经济从此进入了由计划经济向市场经济转变的一个转型期。当社会制度由一种方式向另一种方式转变的时候,它对于整个社会的影响将是巨大的。作为这种转型经济体中的个体,农村劳动力的转移方式必然也会受到转型期的各种制度安排的影响。因此本文的研究思路就是:首先,构造一个基本模型,在这个基本模型中假设农村劳动力面临的是一个既定的制度环境。在这个假设前提下,分析农村劳动力的个人禀赋的不同对其外出打工就业概率(不确定性)的影响,并静态地分析其对农村劳动力转移方式的影响。然后,放松假设前提,将基本模型中假定为不变的制度性因素拓展进来,并考察在转型期这些制度因素对于农村劳动力转移方式的影响。最后,根据前面分析得出的结论,提出促进农村劳动力转移的政策建议。一、本文的主要内容第一章、导论。本章主要介绍本文的研究目的及思路、相关的文献综述、研究意义、研究方法及研究框架,并对相关的概念作出界定以及对本文的局限和后续研究的方向作出说明。第二章、基本模型:禀赋、不确定性与农村劳动力转移。本章首先提出所要研究的问题——为什么中国农村劳动力转移过程中会出现“全年务农;兼营农业;专职打工;回流”这样四种方式?然后提出假设:制度环境不变;务农纯收入不变;劳动力市场上只有一种农民工工资,且工资性纯收入相同;每个人的就业概率受个人禀赋的影响;转移成本包括直接成本和间接成本;劳动力无限生存。并根据“人力资本投资理论”、“不确定下的选择理论”、“工作搜寻理论”构造基本模型。最后再根据上面所建立的基本模型进行理论推导,对农村劳动力“是否外出?”“外出以后采取‘兼营农业’还是‘专职打工’?”“外出以后‘是否会回流’?”等问题作出理论上的解释。第三章、基本模型的应用:对当前农村劳动力转移的实证研究。本章将对当前中国农村劳动力转移状况作一个实证的研究。这个实证研究的目的就是用来检验从第二章构造的理论模型中所推导出来的结论。本章首先回顾了新中国成立以后,农村劳动力向城市转移的曲折历程。然后,利用笔者所做的320份问卷调查的数据,运用统计分析方法对目前农村劳动力的转移状况做了一个大致的描述,包括农村劳动力转移的“人口特征”,“转移特点”,“制约因素”,“目前状况”以及“今后打算”几个方面。最后,利用调查的数据,通过计量模型考察在劳动者的个人禀赋中哪些因素对劳动者的就业概率产生了显著的影响;同时,还将考察转移距离、赡抚人数对农村劳动力转移行为所产生的影响。第四章,扩展模型:对转型期农村劳动力转移的进一步解释。本章在前面建立的基本模型的基础上,通过改变其他的变量来扩展这个模型:1、改变城市工资水平的值,目的在于考察不同行业的工资水平以及国家的工资制度的改变对农村转移劳动力的行为方式的影响。2、通过改变土地流转价格考察国家的土地制度对农村转移劳动力的行为方式的影响。3、通过研究农村劳动力“抛荒”土地的收益,揭示国家的社会保障制度对农村转移劳动力的行为方式的影响。另外,本章还分析了就业、产业、教育以及户籍制度对农村劳动力转移的影响。第五章,促进我国农村劳动力转移的政策建议。本章结合前面几章的分析结果,提出促进农村劳动力转移的政策建议。本章提出应该从教育制度、劳动力市场建设、产业制度、土地制度、社保制度、户籍制度等方面同时入手进行全方位的配套改革,以实现促进农村劳动力转移的目的。二、本文的主要结论及观点1、经过研究,本文发现个人禀赋对农村劳动力外出就业概率影响显著的因素有:①年龄越大,就业概率越低。②受教育年限越长,就业概率越高。③如果接受过技能培训,就业概率越高。④社会关系对就业概率具有显著影响。⑤从业经历对就业概率具有显著影响。另外,本文的研究还发现从平均水平看,农村劳动力在首次外出就业之后,约10.5年左右的时间内,就业概率都处于上升的时间。另外,对农户选择“兼营农业”还是“专职打工”的方式影响显著的因素有:①在外出务工的人群中,女性更倾向于专职打工,男性更倾向于“兼营农业”。②更换雇主越多的人更倾向于“兼营农业”。③转移距离越远,选择“专职打工”的可能性越大。2、对外出务工者是否回流的研究结论:①如果一个农户要外出打工,那么他的初始就业概率必须大于一个最低的“保留概率”。②一般的,随着打工经历的增加,在其他条件不变的情况下,就业概率会先增后减,“兼营农业”的人有可能后来“专职打工”。但是,也有部分人的就业概率可能一直下降。③当外出务工者的就业概率低于“保留概率”时,他就会回流。如果回流以后选择“全年务农”,那么他极有可能陷入“回流陷阱”,因从业经历不再增加,而被锁定在土地上。④如果外出务工者的就业概率始终大于“保留概率”,那么他“彻底转移”将成为可能。⑤如果务工者在打工过程中通过再教育、接受职业培训等方法提高自己的人力资本存量,他的就业概率将会进一步提高。3、工资制度对农村劳动力转移的影响:工资水平提高,将诱使更多的农村劳动力选择“转移”;也必将诱使更多的农村劳动力选择“专职打工”以及更多的农村劳动力市民化。4、有关土地制度的研究结论:①对那些就业概率很高的在外“专职打工”或者自己创业的农户来说,土地的经营权租金率越低,他们越有可能彻底转让土地承包经营权。而土地经营权租金率越高,则会有越多的农户选择专职打工,但他们彻底转移土地承包经营权的意识将会减弱,甚至会出现已经市民化了的人仍然会保留土地承包经营权的现象,除非土地承包经营权的转让价格很高。②对那些人力资本积累不够的农户来说,除非土地承包经营权的价格非常高,否则他们是不会彻底转让土地承包经营权的。③当土地承包经营权的租金率不变时,就业概率越高的农户出租土地的可能性越高;对同一个体来说,土地经营权租金率越高,出租土地的可能性越高。④在目前的土地制度约束下,农民所拥有的土地承包经营权的价值无法在土地流转中得到真正的实现。土地资源不能够通过竞争机制流向生产效率更高的地方,从而一方面形成了不但不能够实现土地的专业化和规模化经营,反而有大量的土地资源被浪费的局面;另一方面,由于土地流转不畅,导致价格机制失效,土地经营权租金率很低,又进一步影响了农村劳动力的转移。⑤在土地经营权租金率比较低的情况下,如果农业收入提高的比较快的话,向城市转移的农村劳动力相对而言会减少。在土地经营权租金率比较高的情况下,如果农业收入提高的比较快的话,农村转移的劳动力将会增多。但是在转移地点的选择上,并不是所有的农村劳动力都会选择向城市转移。可以通过推行适当的产业政策,让部分农村劳动力由农民转变成农业产业工人,从而使部分农村劳动力在农村实现转移。5、有关社会保障制度的研究结论:①在个人就业概率较低,或者土地经营权租金率较低的情况下,如果不能对农民工提供相应的失业保险的话,外出打工的农户将通过抛荒土地的方式来进行“自我保险”;并且,他们通过抛荒土地所获得的实际收益将大于他们将土地转租出去所获得的租金收益,而且就业概率越低的人,所获得的收益越大。②如果给农民工提供一个具有较高补偿水平的失业保险,那么农村土地抛荒的现象将会减少,同时会有更多的农村劳动力选择专职打工。③目前地方政府之间的博弈导致地方政府并不会对企业的行为进行严格监管;企业在劳动力市场上处于强势地位,由于政府监管缺位,企业并不会主动为农民工办理社会保险;农民工在劳动力市场上处于弱势地位,由于担心找不到工作,不会向企业提出办理社会保险的要求,最终导致农民工参加社会保险的比例很低。6、本文提出了以下观点:①除了个人禀赋会影响农民工就业概率以外,就业制度、产业政策以及教育制度都能够影响农民工的就业概率。其中就业制度、产业政策直接影响农民工的就业概率,而教育制度会影响农民工的受教育年限从而间接影响到农民工的就业概率。②要促进农村劳动力的转移,必须从宏观整体的角度出发,进行系统性的全面改革,而不是改革其中某一两项不合理的政策。应该从教育制度、工资制度、劳动力市场建设、产业制度、土地制度、社保制度以及户籍制度等方面进行全方位的配套改革。③建议建立一个由中央垂直管理的社保“资金池”,通过这个“资金池”来平衡不同经济发展水平的地区之间人员流动造成的社保资金失衡的问题,从而实现全国统一的社保体系。④建议户籍制度的改革采取渐进式改革,首先着重解决教育、就业、工资、社保等制度改革,辅之以户籍制度的配套,同时进行农村土地制度的改革;然后视就业、工资、社保等制度的改革进程择机实行户籍制度的全面改革。三、本文的主要贡献1、立意新颖、研究视角独特。理论界对于农村劳动力转移问题的研究成果相当丰富,涉及到劳动力转移的各个层面和角度,包括农村劳动力转移的影响因素、效应、特征、战略思考等内容。但是,到目前还鲜有文献从劳动者个体或微观的角度,将劳动者个人的禀赋、面对就业市场时的不确定性与农村劳动力的转移内在地联系起来研究“为什么中国农村劳动力转移过程中会出现‘全年务农,兼营农业,专职打工,回流’这四种方式”并从理论上对这一现象作出解释。本文以这一问题作为切入点展开研究,并对这一现象作出理论了上的解释。本文为农村劳动力转移问题的研究提供了一种新的研究视角。2、构造了一个具有理论内洽性的新的分析框架。本文借鉴了“不确定下的选择理论”和“工作搜寻理论”的相关研究成果,以及“人力资本投资理论”的核心思想,构造了一个新的理论分析框架。在这一分析框架中,可以解释不同的农村劳动力个体为什么会选择不同的转移方式,还可以考察转型期中的制度因素对农村劳动力的转移行为产生的影响。3、得出了一系列有意义的研究结论。这些结论主要包括:在个人禀赋中有哪些变量对农村劳动力转移具有显著影响?哪些禀赋变量影响着农村劳动力选择“兼营农业”还是“专职打工”?什么条件下外出打工者会选择“回流”?在转型期的中国,包括工资制度、土地制度、社会保障制度、就业制度、产业制度、教育制度、户籍制度在内的这些制度因素是如何对农村劳动力转移行为产生影响的?本文得出的这些结论,能够从理论上对转型期中国农村劳动力转移过程中出现的“全年务农,兼营农业,专职打工,回流”四种方式进行解释。4、本文具有较强的实践意义①本文得出的结论有利于政策制定部门发现目前阻碍农村劳动力转移的原因有哪些?以便于今后有针对性的制定相关的政策,以促进农村劳动力的转移。②本文通过问卷发放所收集到的农村劳动力转移过程中的相关数据,可以为政策制定部门提供一个感性的认识;另外,也可以为相关的研究提供一个参照和对比。③本文第五章针对如何促进农村劳动力的转移,提出了一些建设性的政策建议,尽管深度和细度不够,但是却可以提供一种解决问题的思路,对于今后政策的制定具有一定的帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a phenomenon in the mobility progress of the Chinese rural labor forces in the period of transition. Somebody is urbanization. Somebody has to return to village after having worked in city for many years. Somebody is part time farmer. Somebody has never left village.Why does this phenomenon arise? Why do they choose different choice for themselves? We can explain the first question if we answer the second question. Furthermore, we can find the main obstacle that baffles the mobility of the rural labor force. We can also promote the mobility progress in order to reduce the earning gap between urban and village. This is the main aim of this issue.There are two reasons for the phenomenon happens in China in my opinion. The first is the personal endowments. An individual of labor forces, when he goes out for a work in urban, will encounter uncertainty. Maybe a firm would employ him. Maybe he would be unemployed. The reason is that the probability of employment is different for each individual because of the different personal endowments. The second is systemic factors. The systemic factors, which include institutions and the rate of economic growth, would also influence the mobility of the Chinese rural labor forces. The change of the institutions from one style to another style would influence the whole society not to say the mobility of the rural labor forces.So the progress of this research develops as follow. First, we will make a basic model, which is assumed that the institutions are fixed, to analyze the influence of the personal endowment to the probability of employment and the mobility style. Second, we will relax the assumption to analyze the influence of the institutes to the mobility style in the period of transition. Last we will make some advice to promote the progress of the mobility of the rural labor forces. Section one: The main contentChapter one introduces the research aim, plan, literature, significance, method, and framework of this issue.Chapter two asks the question why there are four styles in the progress of the mobility of the rural labor forces at first. And make some assumptions at second. Then, makes a basic model to answer the question according to the human capital theory, the theory of choice under uncertainty and the job search theory.Chapter three makes an empirical research of the mobility of the rural labor forces at this time. The aim of the empirical research is to test the conclusion of chapter two. First, it reviews the progress of the mobility of the rural labor forces from the building of the People’s Republic of China. Second, it makes a statistical study of the mobility of the rural labor force at this time by use of the data collected by author. At last, it study which personal endowments would influence the individual probability of employment notably. Furthermore, it would study the influence of distance and liability to the mobility of the rural labor forces.Chapter four extends the basic model to explain the mobility of the rural labor forces in the period of transition by change the institute variables. These variables include wage institute, land institute, insurance institute, employment system, industry institute, education institute, and registration institute. Chapter five make some advices to promote the mobility of the rural labor forces from the conclusions of the above. It advises that we should reform the institutes from macrocosm.Section two: The main opinion1.This issue finds that there are some personal endowments, which include age, education, skill, social relationship and experience, influence the individual probability of employment notably. It also finds that the individual probability of employment would rise from the individual leaves village 10.5 years in average.The factors, which influence the rural labor forces to choose part time farming or full time job, are sex, the number of the employers the individual ever changed, and the distance.2.The conclusion about the research of migration backThe first probability of employment must be bigger than the lowest reserve probability if an individual wan to go out for work. The probability of employment will increase at first and decrease with time passing but someone’s probability of employment would decrease all long. Some part time farmer would choose full time job with the increasing of the probability of employment.It is possible for somebody to be urbanization if the probability of employment is bigger than the reserve probability all the time.The individual probability of employment would increase if the individual increase his human capital by education and job training.3.There would be more rural labor forces to mobile and choose full time job and more rural labor forces to be urbanization if the wage rise.4. The conclusion about the research of land instituteThe one with high individual probability of employment would transfer their management right of their contract arable land if the rent rate of the land is low. It is to say if the rent is higher there are more rural labor forces would go out for fulltime job with lower desire to transfer their management right. Furthermore, somebody who has been urbanization would hold his or her management right except the transfer price is very high.The one with low human capital would not transfer their management right except the transfer price is very high.The one with higher individual probability of employment would rent their arable land if the rent rate of the arable land were fixed. The one would rent his arable land if the rent rate is high for the same one.The farmer can not get the real value of the management right in the trade of the arable land under the constraint of the present land institute. The arable land cannot be allocated to the farmer with high efficiency. It leads two affects. On one hand, we can not realize the specialization of the arable and get the scale economy. On the other hand, it baffles the mobility of the rural labor forces because of the low price of the arable land.There would be fewer labor forces to mobile if the earnings of agriculture increase more rapidly with the low rent rate of arable land. On the other hand, there would be more labor forces to mobile if the earnings of agriculture increase more rapidly with the high rent rate of arable land. We can make the proper industry policies to make the rural labor forces mobile in agriculture by making the farmer became agriculture worker.5. The conclusion about the research of the social insurance instituteThe individual would insure himself by making the arable be desolate if his probability of employment is low or the rent rate is low. He would get more profit by making the arable be desolate than rent the arable land to other people. Furthermore, the one with lower probability of employment would get more profit.The behavior of making the arable land be desolate would be lessened and there would be more individual choose full time job if we can offer an unemployment insurance with high level compensate.The local government would not supervise the firm strictly because of game among all the local governments. So the firm would not make unemployment insurance for the peasant-workers voluntarily because they have market power. The peasant-workers would not request the firm to make unemployment insurance for them because they worry about the firm fire themselves. All of these leads there are few peasant-workers get employment insurance.6.This issue makes some advices as follow.We should reform the institutes from macrocosm including wage institute, land institute, insurance institute, employment system, industry institute, education institute, and registration institute.In order to build an uniform social insurance system the central government should build a fund pool to balance the gap of the fund which led by the individual migrate between different areas with different economy development speed.We should reform the registration institute progressively. We should emphasize the reform of the education institute, employment system, land institute, wage institute and insurance institute at first. And reform the registration institute by the progress of the reform of the above institutes.Section three: The main contribution of this issue1.The view of this issue is very particular. There is little literature research why there are four styles in the progress of the mobility of the rural labor forces. This issue extents the research by making this question as breakthrough point.2. This issue makes a framework to answer the question why there are four styles in the progress of the mobility of the rural labor forces according to the human capital theory, the theory of choice under uncertainty and the job search theory.3.this issue gets some important conclusions in section two.4.This issue is helpful to practiceThe conclusions of this issue is helpful for the government to find the reasons which baffle the mobility of rural labor forces and helpful for the government to make proper policies to promote the mobility of the rural labor forces.The data collected by author can help the government get first hand information of the mobility of the rural labor forces. It can also provide a reference for other research.更多还原