【作者】 吴丹；

【导师】 池元吉；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 近二十年来,东亚区域内贸易的流量、结构、流向、模式和相互关系都发生了显著变化,并引起了世人的广泛关注。这些变化虽然与世界经济整体形势的发展变化密切相关,但主要与东亚经济的快速增长、政府实行的出口导向型经济发展战略、区域分工体系的建立与升级、中国经济的崛起和地区性经济合作组织的影响等内在因素直接相关。东亚区域内贸易在快速发展的同时,还面临贸易不平衡与全球经济失衡、区域内贸易摩擦复杂化、区域货币金融合作滞后和经济体间存在多种冲突等问题。在现有条件下,东亚区域内出口贸易潜力适中,而进口贸易潜力较大。东亚各经济体应从促进区域内最终产品市场和地区性经济合作组织发展,调整对外开放战略,推动金融合作的实质性进展和物流建设与合作等方面促进区域内贸易发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 East Asia has been the most rapidly developing area, as the new center and power of the world economic. At the same time, East Asia has some problems on the development of economics. That situation has appeared fully in the developing state of intra-regional trade. To research deeply, make clear its characteristics, problems and potentiality, would possess great momentous current significance on the development, cooperation and formulating the development policies of Chinese foreign economics and trade. That research would improve the Trade Gravity Model to some extent.A lot of full and accurate statistic data were used in the objective description and qualitative analysis. Developing and changing state, reasons and problems of intra-regional trade were revealed. The Trade Gravity Model was applied to examine empirically and forecast the previous research. In the end of thesis, the growing ways and countermeasures of improving intra-regional trade in East Asia were put forward.In the past twenty years, East Asia intra-regional trade have really changed much, as has been paid widespread attention all over the world. In the aspect of trade flows, the intra-regional trade in East Asia grow rapidly, the growing rate of that is faster than the world trade, and faster than the trade to the world and America. Thus the trade position of East Asia in the world has been raised, the main trade area of East Asia has been transformed from inter-region especially America to intro-region. In the aspect of trade structure, the trade structure of intra-regional trade in East Asia has been more and more senior, finished manufactured goods trade in East Asia, especially machinery and transport equipment trade, the share of parts and components trade has been fast raised. In the aspect of trade direction, China and Japan have been the center of the East Asia, the transit trade position of China Hong Kong and Singapore has been dropped relatively, the regional trade position of economic cooperative agreement has been raised relatively. In the aspect of trade pattern, the intra-industry trade in East Asia has been improved relatively. In the aspect of trade relation, the complementary tendency has been greater than competitiveness. The above characteristics are the same obvious in the export and import trade of intra-region in East Asia. The above development of East Asia trade show that, the poison of East Asia as the trade locomotive of the world has been strengthened, the economic cooperation and cohesion of East Asia economies have been strengthened, the direct economic connections have been strengthened, the function of regional economic cooperation has been strengthened, the trade structure and pattern of East Asia have been being optimized and advanced continuously.Although the development of intra-regional trade in East Asia in the past two decades is closely related to the whole situation of the world economics, it is mainly related to the following internal factors. Firstly, the rapid development of East Asia economics is the base of the development of intra-regional trade in East Asia. The influence extent of the economics development of export country is greater than that of import country. That indicates the intra-industry trade caused by economic of scale doesn’t only arise between two countries whose economic levels are approximate, but also arise between two countries whose economic levels are very different. Secondly, the governments of every economy in East Asia generally take export orientation policies of economic development, adjust measures of intervening economic continuously, ensure effective enforcement of the export orientation strategy, and provide institution requirement for the rapid development of East Asia trade. The influence extent of economic institution to intra-regional export trade in East Asia is greater than that of import trade, and that of economic institution of import country is greater than that of export country. Thirdly, regional labor division systems in East Asia region which have been established and escalated have been important promoting forces to the development of intro-regional trade. The present regional labor division systems of East Asia include inter-industry division system as well as intra-industry and intra-product division system, vertical division system as well as horizontal division system. The promoting effects of labor division system in East Asia region to import trade of every economy in East Asia are more remarkable. Fourthly, China which is high-speed developing is promoting the offer and demand increase of intra-regional trade in East Asia, and speeding up the trade evolution in East Asia. The development of regional economic cooperation which has been stimulated by China and the friendly diplomatic policies have enhanced cohesive and appeal forces among every economy in East Asia. Fifthly, the effects of four regional economic cooperation organizations on intra-regional trade in East Asia are different. The improving functions of ACFTA to the import and export trade of related economies are all obvious, but the improving functions of CEPA only to the export trade of related economies are obvious, and that of AFTA only to the import trade of related economies are obvious, on the contrary that of JSEPA are not obvious. Just because the above factors would continuously affect East Asia economics in the future, the intra-regional trade in East Asia would grow better and better, strengthen the cohesive force of East Asia, improve the position of East Asia in the world.When intra-regional trade in East Asia develops very fast, there are several problems such as trade imbalance development, intra-regional trade friction, backward financial and currency cooperation and some effect of manifold conflict. In the view of future development, the problem of trade imbalance can not be solved until the intra-regional final product market can be established. Nevertheless, the East Asia economies are paying close attention to internal needs and import, the problem of trade imbalance may be mitigated soon. The backward financial and currency cooperation may be improved progressively because of serious economic benefit of East Asia economies. The manifold conflict among East Asia economies may not be more acute because of serious economic benefit also. But the problem of intra-regional trade friction can be more and more obvious because of more and more association on intra-regional trade and common benefit not but country benefit in East Asia.The thesis shows, the export potentialities of China Hong Kong and Philippines to East Asia economies would be relatively great, and the export potentialities of Malaysia, China Taiwan and Republic of Korea to East Asia economies would be relatively little. The import potentialities of China Hong Kong, Japan, Indonesia to East Asia economies would be relatively great, and the export potentialities of China, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore to East Asia economies would be relatively little. The most important effort to improve intra-regional trade in East Asia is to retain present positive factors and cultivate some new positive factors.The thesis indicates, the following efforts on improving intra-regional trade in East Asia should be put forth. At first, nontariff barrier from Japan, Republic of Korea, China Hong Kong, China Taiwan and Singapore should be shut down, developing economic level of China, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand should be raised, and then intra-regional final product market of intra-regional trade should be enlarged, so that ensure stability and continuity of developing intra-regional trade in East Asia. At second, the relationship between China and Japan should be coordinated, and complete economic cooperation in East Asia should be strengthened, and the development of regional economic cooperation organization should be improved on account of trade facilitation. At third, external expansion strategy should be adjusted. That is gradual and proper external expansion should be advocated, export structure should be superior, import trade should be paid more attention, and foreign direct investment should be imported positively and rationally. At fourth, information linkage and economic coordination should be strengthened, regional convenient mechanism for fund-raising should be improved, Asia bond market should be cultivated, exchange rate cooperation should be promoted, and politics mutual confidence should be enhanced to advance the essential development of financial cooperation in East Asia. At fifth, East Asia logistics infrastructure, Informational and standardized construction of logistics and the third party logistics in East Asia should be strengthened.更多还原