【作者】 李晓刚；

【导师】 张少杰；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 论文以中国光伏产业发展战略为主要研究内容,综述了国内外理论界与实业界对光伏产业发展问题展开的相关研究和取得的若干研究成果,并对这些研究进行了评价。归纳总结了关于产业发展问题研究的主要理论和方法。分析了传统工业化过程导致的能源与环境危机,以及以光伏技术为代表的新能源在可持续发展与循环经济中的作用。分析了光伏产品的国际国内市场的现状与走势,对产品分类、市场结构、发展的主要制约因素进行了深入的剖析。对国际国内的市场发展规律进行了定量分析,并对市场前景进行了预测,提出了中国光伏产品的市场拓展战略。应用产业经济学、技术经济学等相关理论与方法,从技术、企业、产业、国家四个层面研究了我国光伏产业发展战略问题。论文探索性地引入光伏技术发展范式和光伏技术发展轨道的概念,对光伏技术的自身发展规律进行了深入剖析,对光伏技术发展过程中的经济问题进行了研究,创新性地提出了光伏技术发展定律,对未来光伏领域的技术发展以及相关的主要经济指标进行了预测,提出中国光伏产业发展的技术选择战略和技术创新战略。论文从企业层面对我国光伏产业发展进行了技术经济分析,结合实际案例分析了中国光伏企业的投资价值,对不确定性较大的投资项目应用实物期权的方法分析了其或有价值。对中国光伏企业的商业模式进行了总结,提出了中国光伏企业的商业竞争战略。论文从产业层面对中国光伏产业的发展进行了分析,主要分析了光伏产业的产业链、产业链上的价值分配、产业的规模与结构,特别是定量分析了光伏产业的规模经济问题。还分析了中国光伏产业发展的集群特点,提出了我国光伏产业的成长战略。论文从国家战略的高度,对比了中国光伏产业发展与西方国家的差距并归纳总结了可借鉴的经验。着重探讨了中国发展光伏产业的国家战略定位、国家战略体系、促进光伏产业发展的国家政策以及国家战略的实施计划。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis is focusing on the research of China PV Industry development strategy. It summarizes the related research and some of its achievements on PV industry development among the domestic and abroad academes and industry field and makes the corresponding evaluatations on those researches. It is also summarized the main theories and methods on academic issue research. It analyses the energy and environment crises which are caused by traditional industrilization and the roles of the new energies, which is mainly presented by PV products, in the sustainable development and recycling economies. It analyses the PV market status abroad and in China and its tendency and analyses deeply from product categorization, market status to main limiting factors of the market development. It makes the quantitative analysis on international and domestic market development rule and forecasts the market perspective and puts forward the marketing strategy for PV products.By applying the related theories and methods in industry economics and tech-economics, the thesis is researching the development strategy from four phases, i.e. technology, enterprise, industry and nation.The concepts of PV technology model and PV technology development orbit are introduced exploringly in the paper and make the deep anatomy and analysis for its development rule, and makes the research on the economic issues during the PV technology development process, and the Moore principle on PV technology development is innovatively put forward, and forecast future PV technology development and corresponding economic indexes and bring out the strategic plan and technology innovation strategy on China PV technology.It makes the tech-economical analysis on China PV industry development from enterprise phase and analyses the enterprise investment value by case study. Use the object future method to analyse the comparatively big uncertainty investment project to analyse its possible values. The business models of China PV enterprises are summarized and put forward the business competition strategy for China PV enterprises.It makes the analysis on China PV industry from enterprise phase and mainly analyses the industrial chain and the value distribution on the chain, industrial scope and its structure. Especially the quantitative analysis is made on mass economy issue in PV industry. It also analyses the cluster character for PV industry development and put forward the growth strategy in China.It is also compared the differences between China PV industry and western countries from national strategy level and summarizes the reference experiences. It also discusses the national strategy orientation, national strategy system of China PV industry, the national policy to promote the PV industry development and the action plan of the national strategy.更多还原