【作者】 熊永柱；

【导师】 王良书； 许德如； 夏斌；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学院研究生院（广州地球化学研究所） ， 人文地理学， 2007， 博士

【副题名】以广东省为例

【摘要】 21世纪是海洋的世纪。海岸带是海洋与陆地的接合部与过渡带，海岸带可持续发展已成为多学科交叉研究的热点和前沿领域。海岸带可持续发展指标体系和定量评价模型是海岸带可持续发展研究的核心内容，也是海岸带可持续发展综合评价和调控实践的理论基础。我国的海岸带尤其是广东省海岸带地区人口密集，城市化进程快速，社会经济开发的需求不断扩大，而生态环境则日渐脆弱，迫切需要进行可持续发展评价和调控。因此，本研究具有较大的理论意义和实用价值。论文以地球系统科学、环境与可持续展理论、经济地理学等交叉学科的理论为指导，应用层次分析方法、多元统计分析方法和地理信息系统等多学科交叉的技术与方法，将定性分析和定量评价研究相结合，理论研究和实际应用相结合，对海岸带可持续发展的基本理论和评价模型进行研究，主要取得了以下认识和成果：(1)从海岸带可持续发展的概念和内涵出发，构建了一套由目标层、准则层和指标层构成的3层结构、包含32个具体的统计监测指标构成的海岸带可持续发展评价指标体系和由综合协调度、可持续性和可持续发展度3个评价指数组成的海岸带可持续发展评价模型。阐述了海岸带综合协调度、可持续性和可持续发展度的概念和数学模型，设计了5个级别的评价标准和判别图谱。(2)在对广东省海岸带环境、经济和社会三个子系统的现状与发展情况进行定性分析和调查的基础上，对广东省海岸带可持续发展的综合协调度、可持续性和可持续发展度进行定量评价与系统分析，结果表明：①广东省海岸带以及14个地市的综合协调度、可持续性和可持续发展度指数整体上都保持上升的趋势，但是发展进程和地区分布差异明显。②从发展进程来看，综合协调度已经从很弱(Ⅴ)的协调状态进入到较弱(Ⅳ)的状态；可持续性已经摆脱了较弱(Ⅳ)的可持续状态，进入到中等(Ⅲ)的可持续状态；由于受海岸带综合协调度相对较弱的影响，可持续发展度在整体上仍处于较弱(Ⅳ)的状态。③从空间上看，粤中的广州、深圳和珠海等3个地市的综合协调度、可持续性和可持续发展度指数10年来一直处于相对较高的水平，而东西两翼的汕头、汕尾、潮州、揭阳、湛江、茂名和阳江7市则处于相对较弱的状态，呈现中部高两翼低的格局。④多元统计分析结果表明广东省海岸带地区14个地市表现为较弱可持续发展和中等可持续发展两种模式，整体实现较强(Ⅱ级)可持续发展的水平还任重道远。(3)初步探讨了广东省海岸带可持续发展决策支持系统(GDCZSD-DSS)的技术框架，提出了基于B／S和C／S混合的3层体系结构、6大功能模块的软件框架。并阐述了系统构建所涉及的四大关键技术：地理信息技术、空间元数据技术、空间数据仓库技术、决策支持模型与方法等在系统构建中的重要作用。(4)对广东省海岸带可持续发展战略构想进行了初步研究，提出了以提高广东省海岸带可持续发展能力为核心的战略方针和到2020年达到中等可持续发展水平的战略目标，并针对性地提出了实现该战略目标的七大对策措施。该研究对于丰富和完善海岸带可持续发展研究的理论基础具有重要的意义，也可为广东省海岸带可持续发展战略及社会经济发展规划的制定和实施提供科学的参考依据，对其它省市的海岸带可持续发展评价研究也有一定的指导和借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The 21st century is an epoch of sea and ocean. And coastal zone is the conjunction of land and sea. Nowadays, research on coastal zone sustainable development （CZSD） has become the frontier and hot domain of multi-interdisciplines. And indicators and assessment models of CZSD are the core contents of the research, and are also the theoretical basis of comprehensive valuation and integrated management practice of the CZSD. Therefore, to study on CZSD indicators and establish assessment models are very important in theory and extremely indispensable in practice.According to the fundamental theories and principles of Earth System Science, Environment and Sustainable Development, and Economic Geography, this paper studies on the basic theory and assessment model of coastal zone sustainable development by means of approaches and technologies of Analytical Hierarchy Process （AHP）, Multi-variate Statistics Analysis, and Geographic Information System （GIS）, combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and integrating theoretical analysis with practical application. Main understandings and results are as follows.（1） to interpret the concept and intension of coastal zone sustainable development, design and create an index system, which consists of 32 indicators of statistics and monitoring, and three models such as comprehensive coordination degree （Dcz）, sustainability （Scz） and sustainable development degree (K_sd), and also laborate the concepts of the assessment models and their mathematical fomulas and set forth critera and discriminant diagrams.（2） on the basis of qualitative analysis and investigation of the development status of environment, economy and society subsystems of the coastal zone in Guangdong province, the paper assess and analyse quantitatively the indices of Dcz, Scz and K_sd of the Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development （GDCZSD）. The results show: a) the indices of Dcz, Scz and K_sd of the Guangdong coastal zone and the 14 coastal cities all tend to increase from 1995 to 2004, but they are very different in the progress and distribution of the indices, b) on the view of the progress, the Dcz of GDCZSD has involved into the comparatively weak level （IV） from the very weak level （V）, and the Scz of the GDCZSD has got out of comparatively weak level （IV） and into the moderate level （III）, and because of the constraintion of weaker Dcz, the K_sd still retains the comparatively weak level （IV）. c) on view of the distribution, the indices of Dcz, Scz and K_sd of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai in the middle of the coastal zone in Guangdong, are at the comparatively higher level since 1995. However, they are at comparatively weaker level in Shantou, Shanwei, Chaozhou and Jieyang of the east coastal zone of Guangdong, and in Yangjiang, Maoming and Zhanjiang of the west coastal zone of Guangong, which represents a pattern that the middle of the GDCZSD level is higher and the east and the west are both lower. Tendency analysis results show the Guangdong coastal zone will go through a long-term and wave-typed advancement way to sustainable development.（3） to discuss the framework of the Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development decision support system （GDCZSD-DSS）, and design a software frame based on a kind of three-tired B/S and C/S architecture and six function modules, and also point out the important role of the four kinds of key technologies, i.e. Geographic Information Technology, Geospatial Metadata, Spatial-data Warehouse Technology and Decision Support Model and Approach in the construction of the GDCZSD-DDS.（4） to study preliminarily the strategy scheme of the GDCZSD, and bring up one strategic guideline whose kernel is to improve and augment the capability and level of the GDCZSD, and one strategic objective that the K_Sd of the GDCZSD will reach the moderate level （III） in 2020, and then put forward seven recommendations for achieving the objective.This study is of very great significance to enrich the theory basis of research on coastal zone sustainable development, and is scientific reference materials for planning of Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development strategy, and for planning of of environmental, economic and social development of Guangdong province, and also sets an example for study on the coastal zone sustainable development of the other regions.更多还原